The Delegate Fight: Obama Clinches!

[Erc]

I actually calculated a Hillary lead of 7.5 among superdelegates with them thrown in.

A difference of one from what I have...it's entirely possible that I missed one Obama delegate somewhere (I do a thorough check once every couple weeks, which will catch any serious mistakes I made).

[Erc]

Indiana

'Open' Primary
85 Delegates
--47 by CD
--25 At-Large
--13 Unpledged

Polls close at 6 PM local---meaning mainly 6 PM EDT, though with a few on the Illinois border closing at 7 PM EDT.  Therefore, we likely won't get any results reported until 7 PM, though we should get a good influx of results right after 7 PM.

This is an Open Primary---anyone may decide to vote in the Democratic Primary if they choose, and are considered to be Democrats once they vote.  However, other voters may 'challenge' them if they believe they are not adherents of the party, filling out an affadavit to the effect that they have not voted in Democratic primaries in the past.  If the challengee agrees to fill out a counter-affadavit, asserting that they intend to vote for 'a majority of the candidates of the Democratic Party in the next General Election,' they are permitted to vote in the Primary.

CD Breakdown:
4 for CDs: 3, 4, 5
5 for CDs: 6
6 for CDs: 1, 2, 7, 8, 9

At-Large Breakdown:
16 At-Large
9 Pledged PLEOs

Unpledged Breakdown:
5 DNC Members
1 Senator
5 Representatives
1 Distinguished Party Leader (Joe Andrew)
1 'Add-On' (selected June 21, State Convention)
 
Indiana received a 10% bonus to its delegates for holding a May primary.

North Carolina

Half-Open Primary
134 Delegates
--77 by CD
--38 At-Large
--19 Unpledged

Polls close throughout most of the state at 7:30 PM EDT.  Certain counties may have decided not to close until 8:30 PM EDT, but it is quite likely that the media will begin to report results at 7:30 (as few places utilize the 8:30 closing option).

CD Breakdown:
4 for CDs: 3
5 for CDs: 5, 6, 8, 10
6 for CDs: 1, 2, 7, 9, 11
7 for CDs: 12, 13
9 for CDs: 4

At-Large Breakdown:
26 At-Large
12 Pledged PLEOs

Unpledged Breakdown:
9 DNC Members
7 Representatives
1 Governor
2 'Add-Ons' (selected at June 21 State Convention)

[Erc]

Preliminary IN & NC results added.

Looks like Obama 66-49 in NC, Clinton 38-34 in IN.


Total Delegate Counts (including all superdelegates):

Obama 1852
Clinton 1694.5

How does Clinton win, from here?

First, she needs to do well in the remaining contests.  Let's assume (for the sake of argument) that Clinton gets big wins (2/3 of the vote) in WV, KY, and PR, and suffers narrow losses in OR, MT, and SD.  She'll pick up 128 delegates to Obama's 89, narrowing the gap by 39 delegates.

On June 3 (neglecting any superdelegate endorsements between now and then), the delegate count would then be:

Obama: 1941
Clinton: 1822.5
Uncommitted: 266.5
Edwards: 19

Remember, 2025 is the magic number...so Obama would only need 84 of the Uncommitted or Edwards delegates to win.

Clinton would need 70.9% of remaining Superdelegates (I include the 19 Edwards supporters in this number) in order to win the nomination.

If things break her way in MI/FL, this becomes easier. 
Under a 'Half-Nelson' plan (delegation seated but with half-votes), she'd only need 63.9% of the superdelegates.
If the delegations are fully seated, but with MI Uncommitted voting for Obama, she'd need only  58.0% of the superdelegates.
If the delegations are fully seated, and with 30 of the MI Uncommitted remaining truly Uncommitted, she'd need only 50.5% of the superdelegates (including the 30 MI Uncommitted as superdelegates).

We'll learn more about MI/FL at the end of the month.

Is Hillary completely out?  No, a win is not mathematically impossible for her.  But, barring any major scandal that would force the remaining superdelegates in her favor by a 7-3 margin, she won't be able to pull it off.

[Erc]

With today's wave of endorsements, Obama is now ahead of Clinton in total superdelegate endorsements, and only one half-delegate behind Clinton in superdelegates from states already voted.

Clinton now needs 74.3% of remaining superdelegates to win, barring a resolution in her favor in MI & FL, which is up about 4% from just after IN/NC.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Something worth noting: I'm currently projecting Hillary to win 19 of West Virginia's 28 delegates. That's about 68%...less than what Hillary needs here. Hillary will actually be FURTHER behind after West Virginia.

[Erc]

Something worth noting: I'm currently projecting Hillary to win 19 of West Virginia's 28 delegates. That's about 68%...less than what Hillary needs here. Hillary will actually be FURTHER behind after West Virginia.

The current numbers are already assuming a "good scenario" for Hillary in the remaining states, to wit:

WV: 19 - 9
KY: 33 - 18
OR: 25 - 27
SD: 7 - 8
MT: 7 - 9
PR: 37 - 18.

So nothing will change about the number listed in the thread title if she does win 19 - 9.

Of all delegates (pledged and unpledged) remaining, she needs to win 66.8%, so a 19 - 9 win actually keeps her on track there.  But considering her likely losses in OR/SD/MT, she won't win   more than 59% of the remaining pledged delegates...hence the higher 76.3% of remaining unpledged/Edwards delegates that she has to win.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Those Oregon numbers are more than slightly optimistic for her. So is Puerto Rico (where 24/55 delegates are allocated from 4 delegate districts.)

[Erc]

Those Oregon numbers are more than slightly optimistic for her. So is Puerto Rico (where 24/55 delegates are allocated from 4 delegate districts.)

I'm assuming she gets around 2/3 of the vote in PR, so she gets those 3 - 1.

It's overly optimistic, but it's intended to be.  This is meant to be a best case scenario number.

[Erc]

Colorado Congressional District Conventions.

Over three weeks, Colorado has been holding its Congressional District Conventions.

On May 3, CD 6 held its.
Obama 3 - Clinton 2 [as expected]

On May 10, CDs 1, 2, and 7 held theirs.

CD 7:
Obama 3 - Clinton 2 [as expected]

CDs 1 & 2 have not yet reported results.

On May 16, CDs 3, 4, and 5 will hold theirs.

On May 17, the State Convention will pick the At-Large & Pledged PLEO delegates to the National Convention.

If anyone (from Colorado or otherwise) knows the results from the CD 1 or CD 2 conventions, please let me know.

[Erc]

West Virginia: May 13, 2008

Half-Open Primary
39 Delegates
--18 by CD
--10 At-Large
--11 Unpledged

Polls close at 7:30 PM EDT.

CD Delegates:
Each of the three CDs has 6 delegates.

At-Large Delegates:
7 At-Large
3 Pledged PLEO

Unpledged Delegates:
4 DNC Members
2 Senators
2 Representatives
1 Governor
1? Distinguished Party Leader (Byrd may accidentally be counted twice)
1 'Add-On' (selected June 13/14 by State Democratic Executive Committee)

[Erc]

And my first post is now abutting 10000 characters.  Hopefully after May 17 I can cut down on some of the bloat.

[Gustaf]

So, not much wiggle-room in WV, right? The districts must be very likely to all split 4-2 if current poll numbers hold, whereas the at-large ones should 6-4. It seems to me that Obama will hope to get a 3-3 in one of the districts while Clinton will hope for a 7-3 at-large split.

[Erc]

At-Large Breakdown (by Clinton two-way %age in state)

50%: 6 - 4
64.2%: 7 - 3
78.6%: 8 - 2
83.3%: 9 - 1
85%: 10 - 0

In each CD:
41.7%: 3 - 3
58.3%: 4 - 2
75%: 5 - 1
85%: 6 - 0

So, really the question is whether Clinton breaks 64.2% statewide or not (with subsidiary questions of whether Clinton can break 75% in a CD or Obama 42% in a CD).

Clinton in the upper 60's should give a 19 - 9 breakdown, as BRTD & I predict.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So, not much wiggle-room in WV, right? The districts must be very likely to all split 4-2 if current poll numbers hold, whereas the at-large ones should 6-4. It seems to me that Obama will hope to get a 3-3 in one of the districts while Clinton will hope for a 7-3 at-large split.

Basically. WV-2 is Obama's best shot at 3-3. Maybe Hillary can pull off 5-1 in WV-3.

[Erc]

More on the Colorado Conventions:

Obama won 4 out of 6 delegates in both CO-1 and CO-2.

Projections for CDs 3, 4, and 5:

CD 3:
Obama 3 - Clinton 2.   
This is pretty much the guaranteed result.

CD 4:
Obama 3 - Clinton 2.
Obama's sitting on 3.36 delegate-equivalents right now---if there's a significant swing to him or many Clinton no-shows, he may pick up another delegate here.

CD 5:
Obama 3 - Clinton 1.
Pretty much the guaranteed result.

Statewide (convention on May 17),
Obama should win the PLEO delegation 5 - 2, but he's on a knifeedge there...if he loses any support, it may slip to 4 - 3.
At-Large is pretty securely 8 - 4 Obama.

[Alcon]

AP is reporting that provisional ballots have given Obama two "uncalled" pledged delegates in Ohio.  I'm not sure whether you have that in your numbers, Erc.

[Lunar]

Everyone see the pledged delegate that switched from Clinton to Obama?
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0508/Delegates_pledged_and_un.html#comments

[Erc]

AP is reporting that provisional ballots have given Obama two "uncalled" pledged delegates in Ohio.  I'm not sure whether you have that in your numbers, Erc.

One in the Cincinnati area switched over a few weeks ago (CD 1 I believe)...I haven't heard anything else recently.   All the official results I can find seem to agree with my current numbers.

[Erc]

With Edwards' endorsement of Obama, I'm going to switch his 19 delegates to Obama's column (as 'superdelegates').  They are, of course, free to vote their own conscience, but I will be assuming they vote for Obama unless I hear a statement from any of the delegates to the contrary.

This also probably makes it much less likely that Edwards will pick up those last 3 delegates in Iowa on June 14.

[minionofmidas]

With Edwards' endorsement of Obama, I'm going to switch his 19 delegates to Obama's column (as 'superdelegates').  They are, of course, free to vote their own conscience, but I will be assuming they vote for Obama unless I hear a statement from any of the delegates to the contrary.

This also probably makes it much less likely that Edwards will pick up those last 3 delegates in Iowa on June 14.

Ah. I was wondering about the jump in the no.s

[Erc]

On second thought, I've decided to reverse my earlier decision, and keep Edwards' delegates as uncommitted unless they say otherwise.  They really are superdelegates, at this point---and there's good reason to keep the scenarios I list optimistic for Clinton (to see what possible justification she has for staying in the race).  I may not update the main page for a few hours yet, though.

Edwards' Delegates:

New Hampshire:

District Level Delegate: Joshua Denton, (Portsmouth):  Endorsed Obama
District Level Delegate: Deborah Bacon-Nelson (Hanover)
Pledged Leader Elected Official: Senator Peter Hoe Burling (Cornish)
At-large Delegate: Representative Sharon Nordgren (Hanover)

Bacon-Nelson and Nordgren have decided to "wait a little longer before making an announcement on who they'd support."  Burling could not be reached by the AP.

South Carolina:

Robert Groce:  Endorsed Obama
Marilyn Hemingway:  Endorsed Obama
E Tim Moore
Christine Brennan-Bond: Endorsed Obama
Lauren Bilton: Endorsed Obama
Daniel Boan: Endorsed Obama
Michael Evatt: Endorsed Obama
Susan Smith: Endorsed Obama

Iowa:
4 CD-level delegates have already been chosen:

Machelle Crum:  Endorsed Obama
Marci Wolff
Arlene Prather-Kane:  Endorsed Obama
David Redlawsk

Edwards still has enough support in Iowa to pick up 3 At-Large delegates in Iowa (to be chosen on June 14th).  However, the co-chair of Edwards' Iowa campaign has made it clear they won't be going for them now that Edwards has made an endorsement:

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I will operate under the assumption that Edwards delegates do line up behind Edwards and Tully, and support Obama at the state convention.  This gives Obama all of Edwards' delegates in the state.

Florida:
Edwards' 13 district-level delegates were chosen on March 1st.  Edwards, who got only 14.4% of the vote in Florida, did not receive any At-Large delegates.  Of course, none of these delegates have votes currently, but they may prove a factor if Florida is partially or completely restored.  At least 8 of these delegates (though it is unclear which will be supporting Obama.

Bill Vincent [CD 1]
E. Alan Brock [CD 2]: Endorsed Obama
Mary Mooney [CD 2]
Deborah Courtney [CD 4]
Fred K. McDowell [CD 5]
Debbie Boyd [CD 6]
Joseph Beutenmuller [CD 7]
Justin M. Troller [CD 12]
Rita Ferrandino [CD 13]
Sally Gene Frederick [CD 14]
Barry Randall Birdwell [CD 15]:  remaining Uncommitted.
Linda Spisak [CD 16]: Endorsed Obama
Gregory M. Shimkaveg [CD 24]

[Erc]

Summary of what I've done with Edwards' delegates:

1 of 4 NH delegates to Obama (Denton has endorsed).
6 of 8 SC delegates to Obama (reports indicate).
3 At-Large Iowa delegates to Obama (Edwards' co-chair in Iowa expects to rally Edwards delegates for Obama).
0 of 13 FL delegates to Obama [I have no information out of the state].

[Verily]

Final results in NC-13 have Obama with 64.35% of the two-candidate vote and thus splitting the delegates 5-2 rather than 4-3, gaining a delegate from initial reports.

http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/NC/1875/4207/en/reports.html (Select Dem, All, CD13)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Final results in NC-13 have Obama with 64.35% of the two-candidate vote and thus splitting the delegates 5-2 rather than 4-3, gaining a delegate from initial reports.

http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/NC/1875/4207/en/reports.html (Select Dem, All, CD13)

I was wondering about the whites in that district. Kind of a tough one to gauge, but looks like they are more affluent than I figured.

[Erc]

CNN confirms that 6 of 8 SC delegates, plus Machelle Crum of Iowa, have endorsed Obama.

Link

One of Edwards' 13 FL delegates, Linda Spisak, has endorsed Obama:

Link