The Delegate Fight: Obama Clinches!
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  The Delegate Fight: Obama Clinches!
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Erc
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #225 on: April 24, 2008, 10:35:01 AM »

Inspired by a suggestion in another thread:

Would the race be significantly different if delegates were simply assigned proportionally statewide?  (No district delegates, no pledged PLEOs, just At-Large delegates taking their place):

The answer: Obama's the one who's actually, on net, been getting the short end of the stick.

Excluding TX & IA from consideration (due to strange caucus systems), his pledged delegat lead would be 28 delegates larger under a simpler proportional system.

Map of where each candidate has benefited from the current system:



(Grey represents Not Yet Voted / No Advantage / TX / IA / FL / MI)

Obama has gotten an advantage out of the system in OH & PA, yes, but Clinton made equally large gains in places like NY & AL, and others---and the net effect is for Clinton.
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Erc
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #226 on: April 26, 2008, 01:31:51 PM »

Today's Saturday, which means it's Convention Day!

New Mexico chooses one Add-On today at the State Central Committee meeting.

New Hampshire has its State Convention today, where 1 Add-On will be selected by open ballot by majority vote, by the District-level delegates.  As these were split 6-6-2 Clinton-Obama-Edwards, this should be a fun vote (though, more likely than not, it will be determined by no-shows).

Iowa, as mentioned previously, is having its Congressional District Conventions today, finally picking the first of its delegates to Denver.  Reports from the last few days indicate that the sort of tactical voting I predicted may be happening---Clinton may be lending support to Edwards to allow him to reach viability in CDs 1 and 4 (good job, Clinton campaign!).  In CDs 2, 3, and 5, Edwards appears to have viability, though it is closest in CD 5.  Obama would be well-advised to help Edwards out in CD 5 if he looks shaky.

Conventions began at 9 AM Central, with certain conventions allowing stragglers through to 11 AM, so we likely won't know results for a few hours yet.
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Erc
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #227 on: April 26, 2008, 09:40:01 PM »

It looks like the Edwards folks stuck together, and the Clinton camp was able to vote tactically to make him reach viability in CD 1.  In CD 4 (where the required margin was higher), there was no such luck and Edwards failed to reach viability.

Net effect of this on the delegate count:

Obama loses one, Edwards gains one, due to tactical voting.

Good job Clinton campaign.  Shame you lost 10 delegates here last month, though...
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BRTD
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« Reply #228 on: April 26, 2008, 09:44:44 PM »

New Hampshire chose Hillary supporter Kathy Sullivan. Arizona chose Attorney General Terry Goddard, who is still undecided. Obama did pick up a superdelegate though, the vacant party co-chair position went to one of his supporters, Charlene Fernandez.
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Erc
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #229 on: April 30, 2008, 10:41:15 AM »

With today's endorsement by William George (D-PA) for Clinton, Clinton now has more superdelegate endorsements in the states that have already voted than there are uncommitted superdelegates remaining (240 - 238).
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xzcyhj
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« Reply #230 on: May 01, 2008, 12:34:02 AM »

Colorado    Obama 35 Clinton 20/Obama 36 Clinton 19
American Samoa    Clinton 2 Obama 1/Clinton 1.5 Obama1.5
Louisiana    Obama 34 Clinton 22/Obama 33 Clinton 23
Democrats Abroad    Obama 4.5 Clinton 2.5/Obama 5 Clinton 2

California    Clinton 204 Obama 166
Ohio    Clinton 74 Obama 67
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Erc
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #231 on: May 01, 2008, 11:32:28 AM »
« Edited: May 01, 2008, 11:38:16 AM by Erc »

Colorado    Obama 35 Clinton 20/Obama 36 Clinton 19
American Samoa    Clinton 2 Obama 1/Clinton 1.5 Obama1.5
Louisiana    Obama 34 Clinton 22/Obama 33 Clinton 23
Democrats Abroad    Obama 4.5 Clinton 2.5/Obama 5 Clinton 2

California    Clinton 204 Obama 166
Ohio    Clinton 74 Obama 67

Colorado has a long caucus/convention process, in which the final allocation of delegates will not be clear until May 17.  The last good estimate I had had Obama 35 - Clinton 20.  The Green Papers now estimates 36-19, based on results from the County Conventions (which I was never able to find, myself), so I will change my results.

American Samoa:  Although I've seen sources say Clinton 2 - Obama 1, that should not be the final result, and I suspect all reports to that effect are people who don't understand the half-delegate concept.  Ditto with Democrats Abroad.

Louisiana:  Earlier reports had indicated 34 - 22, but 33 - 23 appears to be correct.  If you can find a source contradicting that, let me know.

California: You appear to be right on this count...it appears that Clinton broke 62.5% in CD 51, after all, and gained a delegate from Obama here.

Ohio:  The discrepancy, yet again, appears to be over that pesky CD 1 (a point raised earlier in this thread).  Last I checked, Obama still didn't have enough to make the margin 3 - 1...but it now appears, on the strength of late-arriving absentee ballots, that Obama has broken 62.5%.


Thanks for the corrections, xzcyhj...if you can find a source for your LA numbers, let me know.
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Erc
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« Reply #232 on: May 01, 2008, 01:53:56 PM »

If the Democrats had allocated delegates in the same manner as the Republicans (with some states winner-takes-all, etc.), how would the race look now?

[Some of these are estimates, MI/FL are dealt with in the Republican manner (penalized by half), many delegates listed for a candidate would still be officially unpledged (the At-Large NY & IL delegations, for example)]

Surprisingly, Clinton isn't in the lead:

Obama: 987
Clinton: 945
Edwards: 9
Yet to Vote: 237
Superdelegates: 126

To Win: 1153.

Note that Obama's lead is entirely due to his razor-thin margins of victory in Connecticut and Missouri, which bagged him 79 delegates.

Assuming a similar breakdown of superdelegates as the current Democratic lineup (not necessarily a good assumption:  superdelegates are spread evenly, usually 3 per state, so small states are overrepresented in the Republican system):

After Puerto Rico (assuming Clinton doesn't break 2/3rds there), one would expect:

Obama 1155
Clinton 1095
Edwards 9
Uncommitted 45

...due to the lower number of Superdelegates, Obama is able to clinch the nomination on the last day of primaries.



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Gustaf
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« Reply #233 on: May 02, 2008, 09:11:46 AM »

If the Democrats had allocated delegates in the same manner as the Republicans (with some states winner-takes-all, etc.), how would the race look now?

[Some of these are estimates, MI/FL are dealt with in the Republican manner (penalized by half), many delegates listed for a candidate would still be officially unpledged (the At-Large NY & IL delegations, for example)]

Surprisingly, Clinton isn't in the lead:

Obama: 987
Clinton: 945
Edwards: 9
Yet to Vote: 237
Superdelegates: 126

To Win: 1153.

Note that Obama's lead is entirely due to his razor-thin margins of victory in Connecticut and Missouri, which bagged him 79 delegates.

Assuming a similar breakdown of superdelegates as the current Democratic lineup (not necessarily a good assumption:  superdelegates are spread evenly, usually 3 per state, so small states are overrepresented in the Republican system):

After Puerto Rico (assuming Clinton doesn't break 2/3rds there), one would expect:

Obama 1155
Clinton 1095
Edwards 9
Uncommitted 45

...due to the lower number of Superdelegates, Obama is able to clinch the nomination on the last day of primaries.




I assume you apportioned the delegates by state using Democratic formulas and not Republican ones?
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Erc
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« Reply #234 on: May 02, 2008, 09:56:38 AM »

Using Republican formulas as if they were for the Democrats (i.e. giving California a huge bonus for voting for Kerry, giving Massachusetts 2 bonus delegates for having two Democratic Senators, etc.).
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Gustaf
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« Reply #235 on: May 03, 2008, 04:27:57 AM »

Using Republican formulas as if they were for the Democrats (i.e. giving California a huge bonus for voting for Kerry, giving Massachusetts 2 bonus delegates for having two Democratic Senators, etc.).

Ah, ok, that's more or less what I meant. I would have thought this to boost Clinton substantially since she's won most of the Democratic states, I thought? (NJ, CA, NY) while most Obama states are GOP strongholds? But if memory serves me Republicans don't "bonus" their own states as much?
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #236 on: May 03, 2008, 11:26:03 AM »

Just FYI, according to the AP, the final PA total was Clinton 85-73, according to the unofficial 100% report from the state on the CDs.

The only change I noted from our first round-up is that CD11 is 4-1 Clinton, instead of 3-2 Clinton, as was mentioned earlier.  She held onto CD-07 by about 1,600 votes.  And even though it doesn't matter because it's 3-3, Obama won CD-06 by about 35 votes.

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5hUPSXLSf9BMjfyPSCc2sdK8RtV8QD90DP66G0
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Erc
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« Reply #237 on: May 03, 2008, 02:26:43 PM »
« Edited: May 03, 2008, 02:29:01 PM by Erc »

It's Saturday, so it's Convention Day!

Guam chooses its 8 half-delegates to the Convention today.  Incomplete results suggest Clinton and Obama will split them evenly, 4-4.

South Carolina and Louisiana have their State Conventions today, each choosing 1 'Add-On.'  South Carolina has chosen Inez Tenenbaum, an Obama supporter, as their Add-On.

Colorado's 6th Congressional District is having its Convention today, choosing 5 delegates to the National Convention.  5 are to be chosen...it is expected that 3 will be for Obama and 2 for Clinton.
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xzcyhj
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« Reply #238 on: May 03, 2008, 08:06:29 PM »

LA numbers   Obama 33 Clinton23

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/LA-D.phtml
http://www.lademo.org/
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Gustaf
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« Reply #239 on: May 04, 2008, 06:24:57 AM »

I was wondering how many super delegates have gone "the wrong way" i.e. against the votes of their constituents?

Henry, Richardson, Bingaman, Casey, Napolitano, Kerry, Kennedy and Patrick all come to mind as Obama supporters who "should" be for Clinton. Chandler will join this group.

On Clinton's side, I've thought of Nutter. Easley will become one, I'm sure. Does anyone have access to a list or something? I thought it could be interesting. 
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Erc
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« Reply #240 on: May 04, 2008, 08:07:25 AM »


...which confirms what I already had.  Thanks.
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« Reply #241 on: May 04, 2008, 12:03:22 PM »

Nutter isn't a superdelegate.
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xzcyhj
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« Reply #242 on: May 04, 2008, 08:28:00 PM »

American Samoa  C/O 1.5-1.5->2-1  GP changed it

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/AS-D.phtml
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Gustaf
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« Reply #243 on: May 05, 2008, 07:37:10 AM »


Ah, my bad. But surely there is bound to be some supers going for Clinton while their voters went Obama?
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Nutmeg
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« Reply #244 on: May 05, 2008, 09:04:51 AM »

American Samoa  C/O 1.5-1.5->2-1  GP changed it

On what basis did they change it?
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Erc
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« Reply #245 on: May 05, 2008, 10:26:08 AM »

Until I see a good reason why it isn't 1.5-1.5 (or an actual list of delegates with support listed for each), I will not be changing AS to 2-1.

As for the Clinton supporters in Obama districts...the vast majority of black Congressmen who have endorsed Hillary would fall under that category, I'd assume.

Only 6 Senators/Governors/Representatives in primary states have endorsed Clinton despite both their district and their state voting for Obama:
Gov. Ruth Ann Minner (D-DE)
Gov. Martin O'Malley (D-MD)
Sen. Barbara Mikulski (D-MD)
Tammy Baldwin (WI-2)
Emanuel Cleaver (MO-5)
Dutch Ruppersberger (MD-2)

Half of these were from Maryland...

Plenty of Representatives had Clinton lose their district but win the state, or vice versa, but they can claim an out that way...or were from caucus states, which might not be seen as truly democratic.
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BRTD
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« Reply #246 on: May 05, 2008, 11:03:25 AM »

I don't see any caucus state (other than maybe Maine), where Hillary would've won a primary.
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Erc
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #247 on: May 06, 2008, 10:40:40 AM »

With the new Illinois add-ons selected, the current superdelegate count (over all states) is:

Clinton 268.5
Uncommitted 267.5
Obama 260

Hillary has now won more superdelegates than there are remaining, across all states.

An analysis of how many of these superdelegates Hillary will actually have to win will be forthcoming after we have a good idea of the delegate numbers out of IN & NC tonight.
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BRTD
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« Reply #248 on: May 06, 2008, 10:42:36 AM »

I'm assuming you're including Pelosi and co. in Obama's column then?
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BRTD
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« Reply #249 on: May 06, 2008, 10:48:33 AM »

I actually calculated a Hillary lead of 7.5 among superdelegates with them thrown in.
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