Can anyone explain what a Hillary victory in Virginia would look like?

[Angel of Death]

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/02/07/obama-team-lowers-expectations-for-potomac-primary/

Remember that Obama may very well also be profiting from Saturday.

[© tweed]

33% of the vote in 2004 was black.  meaning that Obama needs about 35% of the white vote to win.  roughly.

[exopolitician]

33% of the vote in 2004 was black.  meaning that Obama needs about 35% of the white vote to win.  roughly.

Obviously do-able.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Southwest Virginia is a goldmine for Hillary -- plenty of lower-income, blue-collar Democrats for her. Obama will do too well in NoVa and Hampton Roads for her to overcome, though.

[Verily]

Obama does very well in NOVA, while Hillary wins the areas that are more rural.  Basically, it looks a lot like 2004, except Hillary wins where Bush did, and Obama wins where Kerry did.

Obama wins then, no?

Bush WON Virginia in 2004...so no. But I think Obama has a big chance here....I mean hes released enough ads to make his name be heard across the state. Richmond is an Obama stronghold, alot of universities [Ron Paul will prob do kinda well here too] and a high black population.

Bush won Virginia because there were Republicans voting. If you take the Democratic vote in the Bush areas and run it against the Democratic vote in the Kerry areas (crude, but effective), Obama wins a landslide.

[Verily]

33% of the vote in 2004 was black.  meaning that Obama needs about 35% of the white vote to win.  roughly.

Possibly. Black turnout may be higher in a competitive election (as by then in 2004 Kerry had obviously won), and certainly will be with a black candidate to vote for.

[Smash255]

Obama wins pretty easily.  Clinton wins big in the rural blue collar areas of the state, but quite simpy it has too few voters.  Obama obviously wins Richmond.  NOVA, Clinton does well with Hispanics & Asians, but the white vote in NOVA is a gold mind for Obama.   Large upper middle class population, as well as having the highest college education rates in the entire country.

[Cubby]

Obama would win the Republican NOVA counties, suburban Richmond and the wealthy parts of Hampton Roads.

Southwest Virginia is a goldmine for Hillary -- plenty of lower-income, blue-collar Democrats for her. Obama will do too well in NoVa and Hampton Roads for her to overcome, though.

Hampton Roads is built around military bases. There are also far fewer college-educated voters than in NOVA. Pat Robertson's headquarters are in Virginia Beach, so I'm assuming there is a notable evangelical presence in the area. Hillary will do well in these cities because she is much stronger (read: Bush-like) on Defense. The voter characteristics are more similar to those in the Roanoke-Cumberland Gap region than NOVA.

[Torie]

I don't see Hillary winning Virginia. Relatively few Hispanics and Asians, maybe a 30% black electorate, and a reasonable slug of higher income whites. I would think most more non partisan voters will go to the Dem primary, and that can't help Hillary either. But maybe some Pubbie racist types (not that many but they are there), might also drop by to stop the the 50% black guy. But that should be a minor factor.

[Verily]

Obama would win the Republican NOVA counties, suburban Richmond and the wealthy parts of Hampton Roads.

Southwest Virginia is a goldmine for Hillary -- plenty of lower-income, blue-collar Democrats for her. Obama will do too well in NoVa and Hampton Roads for her to overcome, though.

Hampton Roads is built around military bases. There are also far fewer college-educated voters than in NOVA. Pat Robertson's headquarters are in Virginia Beach, so I'm assuming there is a notable evangelical presence in the area. Hillary will do well in these cities because she is much stronger (read: Bush-like) on Defense. The voter characteristics are more similar to those in the Roanoke-Cumberland Gap region than NOVA.

In some of the Hampton Roads cities (particularly Norfolk), an easy majority of the Democratic electorate is black.

[Lief 🗽]

I was under the impression that a lot of the Asians in Virginia are Southeast Asian. If I'm wrong, the following is pointless, BUT, I would think that Obama would do better amongst Southeast Asians than he would amongst East Asians.

[TheGlobalizer]

MD, DC, VA are an Obama sweep.  It won't be close.  There's just too much of a FUBU vote around here for Hillary to have a real chance.

To quote (loosely) a black woman I know, "Obama is a black man.  I'll vote for a black man over anyone.  I have to."

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

hillary also needs to hit this guy.  who cares if keith olbermann whines about it?  hit him and keep hitting.  ive noticed obama isnt good at fighting back.  he has a glass jaw.  he expects the media to always bail him out with...'how unfair of her....'

Obama's strategy has served him well.

[agcatter]

An Insider Advantage Poll was just released today showing:

Obama 52, Hillary 37.

[exopolitician]

[Besides the Dinner in Richmond] Obama is going to be visiting Virginia Beach on sunday. The most conservative part of the state and the largest city, im curious how big of a crowd he can turn out there.

[Bay Ridge, Bklyn! Born and Bred]

Obama does very well in NOVA, while Hillary wins the areas that are more rural.  Basically, it looks a lot like 2004, except Hillary wins where Bush did, and Obama wins where Kerry did.

Obama wins then, no?

Bush WON Virginia in 2004...so no. But I think Obama has a big chance here....I mean hes released enough ads to make his name be heard across the state. Richmond is an Obama stronghold, alot of universities [Ron Paul will prob do kinda well here too] and a high black population.

Well, I assumed that there are way more democrats in Richmond and NOVA than in the area's that Bush won.

No, there are way more Democrats in Northern Virginia than anywhere else in the state.   And liberal Democrats, to boot.    Northern Virginia is a liberal bastion, much like Boston, the Bay Area, and New York.

[Cubby]

[Besides the Dinner in Richmond] Obama is going to be visiting Virginia Beach on sunday. The most conservative part of the state and the largest city, im curious how big of a crowd he can turn out there.

Considering that he got 15,000 in Idaho last month, I'd say 100,000

In some of the Hampton Roads cities (particularly Norfolk), an easy majority of the Democratic electorate is black.

Gotcha. I was only thinking of VA Beach and Chesapeake when I wrote that.

[exopolitician]

[Besides the Dinner in Richmond] Obama is going to be visiting Virginia Beach on sunday. The most conservative part of the state and the largest city, im curious how big of a crowd he can turn out there.

Considering that he got 15,000 in Idaho last month, I'd say 100,000

In some of the Hampton Roads cities (particularly Norfolk), an easy majority of the Democratic electorate is black.

Gotcha. I was only thinking of VA Beach and Chesapeake when I wrote that.

That would be ridiculously amazing. Sad it would never happen tho

[Cubby]

[Besides the Dinner in Richmond] Obama is going to be visiting Virginia Beach on sunday. The most conservative part of the state and the largest city, im curious how big of a crowd he can turn out there.

Considering that he got 15,000 in Idaho last month, I'd say 100,000

In some of the Hampton Roads cities (particularly Norfolk), an easy majority of the Democratic electorate is black.

Gotcha. I was only thinking of VA Beach and Chesapeake when I wrote that.

That would be ridiculously amazing. Sad it would never happen tho

Don't be so sure. You never know what great feats he's capable of

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

Obama got more people at his Boise rally than votes in Ada County. Amazing.

[Gabu]

ive noticed obama isnt good at fighting back.

I've heard this over and over and have yet to see a good justification of the statement.  He has responded to tons of attacks.  In fact, an entire section of his website is responding to attacks.

[Ben.]

ive noticed obama isnt good at fighting back.

I've heard this over and over and have yet to see a good justification of the statement.  He has responded to tons of attacks.  In fact, an entire section of his website is responding to attacks.

Actually he's been pretty deft at handling attacks... pre-SC the way in which he fought back from Bill Clinton's attacks and the setbacks in NH and NV was critical to him retaining his viability.

[Adlai Stevenson]

Of the three polls released recently:

59% Obama
39% Clinton


52% Obama
37% Clinton


59% Obama
37% Clinton


I think Obama will probably win by about 57%-60% of the vote, with Clinton on 38%-42%. 

[JohnnyLongtorso]

[Besides the Dinner in Richmond] Obama is going to be visiting Virginia Beach on sunday. The most conservative part of the state and the largest city, im curious how big of a crowd he can turn out there.

Southwest Virginia is the most conservative part of the state. Virginia Beach voted for Tim Kaine for Governor, and was pretty close for Webb/Allen. Presidential candidates don't do well here, though.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Southwest Virginia is the most conservative part of the state.

Only in America would such a claim be anything other than obviously idiotic...