WA-SurveyUSA: Obama defeats McCain by 17, Clinton tied

[Tender Branson]

Obama: 55%
McCain: 38%

Clinton: 46%
McCain: 46%

Obama: 61%
Romney: 32%

Clinton: 51%
Romney: 41%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=1b3063b5-f7d7-4900-8bf3-c2cbc6a0295f

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Well this bodes well for Obama Saturday.

[Alcon]

If anyone hasn't noticed it before, Washington state really likes Barack Obama and really doesn't care for Hillary Clinton.

Subsample nugget #1: McCain beats Clinton by 23 in Eastern Washington, and then loses to Obama by 6.

Subsample nugget #2: Statistical tie in gay marriage support question

Ridiculous subsample nugget #3: Clinton leads against McCain among white voters; the tie is due primarily to a McCain landslide among black voters.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

And McCain wins 43% of blacks against Obama.

Moral of the story: Don't read into things with a literal sample size of approx. 12.

[Alcon]

And McCain wins 43% of blacks against Obama.

Moral of the story: Don't read into things with a literal sample size of approx. 12.

I know you realize this, but I was kidding.

That would be a MoE of about 28.3%. 

[Sam Spade]

WA never did like the Clintons much, did they?

[Alcon]

WA never did like the Clintons much, did they?

Eh, we liked Bill fine, compared to the rest of the country.  Parts of Oregon, not so much, maybe.

Hillary, on the other hand, is a very bad temperamental match for this state.  To go into pseudpsychological politics, Pacific Northwesterners don't much take shine to the fake maternal warmth persona.  We like laid-back passive-aggressivism, and Obama landslides that demographic.

[Sam Spade]

WA never did like the Clintons much, did they?

Eh, we liked Bill fine, compared to the rest of the country.  Parts of Oregon, not so much, maybe.

Hillary, on the other hand, is a very bad temperamental match for this state.  To go into pseudpsychological politics, Pacific Northwesterners don't much take shine to the fake maternal warmth persona.  We like laid-back passive-aggressivism, and Obama landslides that demographic.

What happened in 1994, then?  Just random rebellion?

[Alcon]

What happened in 1994, then?  Just random rebellion?

I was really too busy playing freeze tag to have anything but historical knowledge. 

All I know about 1994 is that suburban families voted GOP in a small landslide (or didn't), and then returned two years later to give Bob Dole a lower-than-national share of the vote.  I once read a microgeography-based abstract on it that was really interesting (although predictable) but I don't remember details.

Although we certainly do enjoy occasional, semi-random rebellion (see: 2007 General).

[Eraserhead]

I need to move to Washington state.

[Verily]

I need to move to Washington state.

No, you need to move to Ohio, register to vote there, and vote again on March 4. And then move to Pennsylvania, register there, and vote a third time on April 22.

Incidentally, does anyone know if doing the above is actually possible, or legal? I would think so (assuming you can make the pre-election registration deadlines), but perhaps not.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It would certainly be breaking the spirit of the law.

[Verily]

It would certainly be breaking the spirit of the law.

Incidentally, it would actually be pretty easy for someone who can claim residency in two states, one that voted recently and one that votes late (Pennsylvania, for example). A college student certainly could do it.

[Gabu]

It would certainly be breaking the spirit of the law.

Al, this is the United States.  I don't think they even know what the concept is of the "spirit" of a law.