Who had a Better night Obama or Clinton?

[Josh/Devilman88]

Obama did, he won CT and DE, which Clinton was up by 20% or more a month ago. He won GA, AL, MO, KS, MN, ND, UT, ID, NM(I believe). He ended up doing ok with the hispainic votes, and he won over the white male vote.  CA and MA was a long shot to start with but he made tons of ground up.

[Gustaf]

Obviously, Clinton crushed Obama in the buzz states of Massachusetts and California. She also did well in Arizona. But beyond that, Obama did very well for himself, beating expectations in most places. Clinton is probably hoping to clobber Obama in March where the primaries look favourable to her. The question is whether she can sustain momentum until then.

[Platypus]

Clinton. The good news for Obama is that he overperformed in the south, but whoever won at least 2/3 of CA, MO and MA was going to get the most momentum, and Hillary did that.

[Iosif is a COTHO]

If no-one breaks out after March, what are the chances of Michigan and Florida holding new elections?

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

Obama appears to have the lead in the delegate count.......to me that settles who had a better night.

[emailking]

If no-one breaks out after March, what are the chances of Michigan and Florida holding new elections?

I think close to 0. More likely is a battle over whether the delegates should be seated. Dean is already backing off of his position that they shouldn't count, and he says it's up to the credentials committee.

[Iosif is a COTHO]

Yeah Obama really screwed up that whole thing. He took his name off the ballot in the state he could win and kept it on in the state he could never win!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

He couldn't have won Michigan.

[Sam Spade]

So, what are the chances Michigan and Florida gets seated at the convention?  I'm saying, at minimum, 95%.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

So, what are the chances Michigan and Florida gets seated at the convention?  I'm saying, at minimum, 95%.

100% if their vote will not affect the outcome......

[Sam Spade]

So, what are the chances Michigan and Florida gets seated at the convention?  I'm saying, at minimum, 95%.

100% if their vote will not affect the outcome......

Actually, it's closer to 100% if their vote will affect the outcome, less if not...

[elcorazon]

I think Clinton won.  Obama needed New Jersey, or at least to have Mass or Calif be very close.  While Obama has an edge in the next few states, they are mostly smallish.  I am worried that he will get clobbered in Texas, and will be lucky to pull out close victories/losses in Pennsylvania/Ohio.  He wins lots of states - she wins the biggies (Ill excepted, of course)... He tends to win the states the Republicans will win in November.

Anyway, it's hard for me to see where he's going to make a big enough run at her to prove he's THE guy, which will make it unlikely that the superdelegates will jump Hillary's ship, and she should have the edge in adding additional superdelegates to her total.

I hope I'm wrong. 

[Wakie]

Obama, no if, ands, or buts about it.

The fact that Hillary! won CA, MA, and NJ is news???

BWWWAAHAHAHAHHAHAHHAHAHHAA.

She was supposed to win in those places. She had a massive advantage from the start. The fact is she lost in places she wasn't supposed to. DE, CT, most likely NM.

In the end, it's 14-8 Obama. He may end up with slightly more pledged delegates than she. What more can you want? He won and won convincingly.

The fact of the matter is, had Obama managed to pick off any one of CA, MA or NJ, he would be the nominee right now. The fact that Hillary! did just enough to stop that doesn't negate the big night for Obama.

She can lie, manipulate and spin all she wants, but Obama cleaned her clock.

3 post shills rock.

[Kalimantan]

http://commentisfree.guardian.co.uk/gary_younge/2008/02/during_the_entire_week_that.html

Last night Obama performed well. Were it not for the fact that a raft of commentators had once again been believing their own hype, the night would even have been regarded as a victory for him.

For the last few months he has been trailing across the country. For the last few days he has been catching up. Much like New Hampshire, the fact that he was even competitive was diminished by the fact that he didn't win. When all the votes are counted he will have held his own in the northeastern states and fared excellently in the Midwest. At the time of writing California is still too close to call. In all likelihood he will lose. The fact in itself would have been remarkable this time last week.

For the last month now we have seen poll-happy pundits mistake their own fantasy for fact. So excited by the possibility of an Obama victory that they lose all sense of themselves and their credibility. Not for the first time, Obama is doing far better than anyone expected. And not for the first time, the pundits are faring worse.

[Thomas Jackson]

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[J. J.]

This was the Obama situation on 2/4/08.

1.  He was raising more money.

2.  He had numerous newspaper endorsements.

3.  He had, for what I think is the first time since 1980, the public support of Ted Kennedy in the Primary, along with numerous members of the "establishment."

4.  He had his major weapon, which probably gave him Iowa, deployed:  Oprah.

5.  Arguably, he had momentum.  Even the FL loss was largely discounted by the media.  Media had been hugely friendly.


This is what the result was:


A.  Obama may have one more delegates than Clinton on Super Tuesday, but not enough to give him the overall lead.  Clinton leads.

B.  He lost a number of traditionally Democratic states, NY (understandable), NJ, MA, and CA.  MA should have been a win.

C.  In the southern states that he won, he did so largely because of winning the Black vote.  The states where he won the white are states he would have virtually no chance of winning in the fall (UT).

D.  Unlike Huckabee, he could not solidly hold a region, i.e. the South (TN).

For the effort put out, which I don't think he can sustain, he should have done a lot better.  The only really good news way NM (?), CN, and MO.

Obama has had two chances to put this away, NH and yesterday.  Both times, he has come up short.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

So, what are the chances Michigan and Florida gets seated at the convention?  I'm saying, at minimum, 95%.

100% if their vote will not affect the outcome......

Actually, it's closer to 100% if their vote will affect the outcome, less if not...

Considering Obama's name was not even on the ballot in MI, I respectfully disagree.

[Thomas Jackson]

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[John Dibble]

Ghostmonkey - again, I state that nobody won the battle last night. Also, while a tie may favor Obama in terms of long term strategy, it will all depend on whether his campaign is able to take advantage of the situation or not. How Clinton handles herself in the coming races will also be of importance. Declaring anyone a winner at this point is premature.

[Thomas Jackson]

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[Sam Spade]

This was the Obama situation on 2/4/08.
4.  He had his major weapon, which probably gave him Iowa, deployed:  Oprah.

What's fascinating to me is that the one area of the country he deployed Oprah (California), the black population didn't show up.  What's up with that?

[John Dibble]

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My post wasn't ment for you,

Didn't think it was, but you seem to be overstating Obama's advantage at this point. I'm just trying to keep our feet on the ground, because if we don't we may be in for a rude awakening.

[Wakie]

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Typical response. I'm not "Shilling" That belongs to Hillary!.

Are you kidding me?  You didn't exist on this forum until this thread.  Now you appear and are screaming to high heaven about how Obama had a great night because he won places like DE and ND when the big prizes last night (NY, MA, and CA) went Clinton.  You are the pure DEFINITION of a shill.

Go stand in the corner.

[Platypus]

mypalmonkey?

[J. J.]

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My post wasn't ment for you, but rather the Hillary! spinmeisters who try to paint winning MA and CA as an amazing victory.

Hillary! was supposed to win in those places, despite what Zogby said. Remember SUSA had her up by 13 the night before the election.

This is another example of overhype of Obama and now the post Super Tuesday spin when he failed expectation.  Supposedly, Obama was going to win CA, and MA, and he didn't.  Obama just called Clinton the "front runner."

And "early voting" is voting.