official Super Tuesday commentary thread (Democrat)

[Verily]

Sen Clinton winning Alameda can't be a good sign.  Granted I don't know where the early votes have come in from but that is not good sign for Obama.

As I said, nothing from the Berkeley-Oakland and Alameda-Newark CDs.  And mostly early votes.  I have no real doubt that Alameda County will vote Obama.

Obama has run a terrific  campaign but I don't see him pulling together a coalition larger enough that can beat Hil's strengths nationally.  Demographics are stacked against him, IMHO.

I respectfully think he has proven himself beyond the point of viability.

I think Obama is 100% viable, however, I think Clinton will win. -Of course, I would not bet my house on it. Obama won some nice victories tongiht but I think Clinton is doing what she has to do to win-  MA, NJ and CA are all nice margins for her and solidify her position as a front running with core demographics.  White woman or the dreaded soccer moms are sustainig her and Obama's lack of appeal with Hispanics is troubling for him. 

Only for today. There's a nice run of Hispanic-free states from now until the 4th of March. In fact, it entirely possible right now for Obama to win every single primary and caucus from now until the 4th of March; except for Maine, they all favor him to some extent (who knows what'll happen in Maine). To predict an Obama victory in all of them would be rash, but he can definitely do it.

[platypeanArchcow]

I think Obama is 100% viable, however, I think Clinton will win. -Of course, I would not bet my house on it. Obama won some nice victories tongiht but I think Clinton is doing what she has to do to win-  MA, NJ and CA are all nice margins for her and solidify her position as a front running with core demographics.  White woman or the dreaded soccer moms are sustainig her and Obama's lack of appeal with Hispanics is troubling for him. 

You're right -- it'll be interesting to see whether Obama's crazy coalition of young people, black people, intellectuals, hippies, and hicks can survive the suburban soccer mom steamroller.

(The alliterations just dance!)

[Verily]

Los Angeles up to 35% in pushes the Clinton lead back to 17%.

FYI, for Verily, Clinton is winning Ventura County 55%-36% with 51% in.

Guess I was off

I expected somewhat lower Hispanic turnout than what seems to have happened.

What's interesting is the California appears to be the only state where blacks stayed home?  Anti-Oprah effect?

I have no idea. It is really baffling that blacks could comprise less of a % of a Democratic primary electorate than they do the population of a state with a black candidate on the ballot. Sure, I didn't expect 11% of the primary electorate to be black, but 8-9% would have been much more expected.

[12th Doctor]

Funny, the fact that most of the Hispanic voters in New Mexico have been there for generations seems to have made a huge different in New Mexico.

[Verily]

Funny, the fact that most of the Hispanic voters in New Mexico have been there for generations seems to have made a huge different in New Mexico.

Maybe if they actually bothered to keep counting the ballots in NM we could see if that holds true... *grumble*

[Meeker]

Hillary Clinton press release:

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Lolz

[Alcon]

NM is not entirely surprising.  The Spanish descendants in northern New Mexico identify as Hispanics but lack identical political inclinations.

Obama's absentee pick-up in Orange County is a lot less impressive than in a lot of these rural counties.  Not all that surprising, so 10-15% looks like our range for tonight.

[Gabu]

Hillary Clinton press release:

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Lolz

If Hillary Clinton ends up losing, at least her press guy can get a job at the Chicago Tribune.

[Verily]

California's down to a 15% lead for Clinton, which is a nice threshold over which to breathe something of a sigh of relief. Hopefully it gets below 10% (not likely, but I can hope).

[patrick1]

Projections are conservative right now-  Hildawg is running up the score in CA.
Obama can and will run up some more victories but I can't see him doing it.

I wish I knew how the delegate count included CA projection.  Because to base it on the current reported delegate count is stupid.  Several California CDs will flip by tomorrow afternoon.

Somehow, I doubt that any of these delegate predictions are taking in a realistic view of California.

Sen Clinton winning Alameda can't be a good sign.  Granted I don't know where the early votes have come in from but that is not good sign for Obama.

Obama has run a terrific  campaign but I don't see him pulling together a coalition larger enough that can beat Hil's strengths nationally.  Demographics are stacked against him, IMHO.

Alcon, It looks like Obama is surging in Alameda as you predicted.  I hope he can pull out some CD's from Clinton.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Hillary Clinton press release:

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Lolz

Clinton defeats Class 1 Senator from Missouri (Truman, McCaskill).

[Gabu]

California's down to a 15% lead for Clinton, which is a nice threshold over which to breathe something of a sigh of relief. Hopefully it gets below 10% (not likely, but I can hope).

14% now.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

California's down to a 15% lead for Clinton, which is a nice threshold over which to breathe something of a sigh of relief. Hopefully it gets below 10% (not likely, but I can hope).

10% might be doable. Well, SurveyUSA gets to be gold-plated or something.

[Sam Spade]

California's down to a 15% lead for Clinton, which is a nice threshold over which to breathe something of a sigh of relief. Hopefully it gets below 10% (not likely, but I can hope).

It's down to 14%, based on an Alameda bump.  Now 47-47 there, with 56% in.

[Verily]

Actually, it looks as if Obama will end up winning a lot of the big counties, except for Contra Costa, OC and LA, assuming the bumps from later votes continue.

[Eraserhead]

SUSA did blow it with respect to MO but considering how well it looks like they did in MA, CT and CA, I think that can be forgiven.

[agcatter]

......and Zogby had to be drunk.

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

My old home county of Blue Earth's finally in. 66% for Obama. That means Mankato was probably a bit higher, around 70% or so. Seems right.

[Sam Spade]

SUSA did blow it with respect to MO but considering how well it looks like they did in MA, CT and CA, I think that can be forgiven.

You should add NJ and NY to that list, although other polling companies didn't blow those as bad.

[Verily]

Well, NM started posting more results, but NM-01 (which is what will decide this) is being reticent. Obama leads NM-03 in the north, which has more Democrats and lots of multi-generation Hispanics while Clinton leads NM-02 in the south, which has fewer Democrats and lots of first-generation Hispanics. Clinton's lead in NM-02 is larger than Obama's in NM-03, but NM-03, as said above, will have as much as twice as many votes as NM-02, and less of it is in so far. Clinton leads overall 49-47. (The 4% in from NM-01 is probably all early votes, given the 11% for Edwards compared to 2% in the others; Clinton leads 49-36 there right now, but that could change radically.)

[Sam Spade]

NM-03 probably has similar Democratic numbers to NM-02 (no exact numbers) - the difference in numbers there is likely due to turnout - and if so, I suspect that's benefiting Obama, as the latte liberal whites live up north.

Whatever, Richardson, if he can, will find a way to win this one for Hillary in the end...

[Dan the Roman]

New Mexico is all in except for the provisionals, 200 vote Obama lead.

Obama 63,030, Clinton 62,802
95% in

http://www.nmfbihop.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=707

[Verily]

NM-03 probably has similar Democratic numbers to NM-02 (no exact numbers) - the difference in numbers there is likely due to turnout - and if so, I suspect that's benefiting Obama, as the latte liberal whites live up north.

Maybe; I would guess that overall NM-02 probably has a much lower eligible population generally, however: lots of illegal immigrants counted in the Census for redistricting.

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I guess I have more faith than you do. (If Richardson planned to rig things for Clinton, he would have endorsed her at the Super Bowl as was rumored.)

[Verily]

New Mexico is all in except for the provisionals, 200 vote Obama lead.

www.nmfbihop.com

Wow. So, what should we expect from the provisionals? Hispanics favoring Clinton? A wash? Some group favoring Obama?

[Sam Spade]

New Mexico is all in except for the provisionals, 200 vote Obama lead.

www.nmfbihop.com

Hmmm...  lol