official Super Tuesday commentary thread (Democrat)

[Aizen]

Does anyone know what Gravel got in Alaska?

Was he even on the ballot?

[patrick1]

If Los Angeles keeps reporting numbers like this, it isn't going to get any prettier.

It is going to be real tough for the Obama camp and Obama friendly media to spin results like this.

Clinton had a very good night IMO.

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

If Los Angeles keeps reporting numbers like this, it isn't going to get any prettier.

It is going to be real tough for the Obama camp and Obama friendly media to spin results like this.

Clinton had a very good night IMO.

Except projections show that Obama actually won slightly more delegates.

[Sam Spade]

60-32 in Los Angeles (with 17% in).  Heck 59-29 in Orange County (with 11% in). 

Obama needs to improve on this, seriously

[Speed of Sound]

Chuck Todd predicts that the delegate count could be completely even (including Super Delegates) after the Chesapeake Primary.

[Alcon]

60-32 in Los Angeles (with 17% in).  Heck 59-29 in Orange County (with 11% in). 

Obama needs to improve on this, seriously

I disagree.  They are just finishing up early balloting.  Heck, Obama flipped some counties that were almost 60-32 with more than 17% in.  That's not to say he'll flip Los Angeles and Orange, but...

Also, re: Alameda County.  The 9th (Berkeley-Oakland) and the 13th (Alameda-Newark) haven't reported anything, according to the state of California.  Need I say more about that?

[M]

NM closes up.

[Speed of Sound]

Im really glad my parents are giving me the day off tomorrow, because its gonna be clooooosseee....

[ottermax]

Alameda County flip the election results! (not really gonna happen, but I can hope)

[agcatter]

Planet Zogby strikes again.

[Sam Spade]

60-32 in Los Angeles (with 17% in).  Heck 59-29 in Orange County (with 11% in). 

Obama needs to improve on this, seriously

I disagree.  They are just finishing up early balloting.  Heck, Obama flipped some counties that were almost 60-32 with more than 17% in.  That's not to say he'll flip Los Angeles and Orange, but...

Also, re: Alameda County.  The 9th (Berkeley-Oakland) and the 13th (Alameda-Newark) haven't reported anything, according to the state of California.  Need I say more about that?

Oh, the results will tighten slightly.  I agree.  The problem that the larger the vote totals get, the tougher it is to tighten, especially when you have no real base areas with significant (as Obama doesn't within CA, except where you mention and a couple of others).

Probably will be someplace in-between 10% and 15% in the end, probably closer to 15%.

[Alcon]

Probably, although I could see it closer to 10% (too tired to crunch the numbers, and I don't have a very good sense for off-the-cuff extrapolation like that).

I don't think the exit polls were actually off, which honestly was the feeling I got immediately when the election closed.  We should make fun of them a little less, maybe.  I just think all the pollsters (save Survey USA) got the early voters wrong.

Obama did indeed have the Big Mo' in California.  This is one of the more incredible discrepancies between early voting and final I've ever seen in a race like this.  It's my Surprise of the Night.

(Who would have expected Arizona better for Obama than California?)

[patrick1]

If Los Angeles keeps reporting numbers like this, it isn't going to get any prettier.

It is going to be real tough for the Obama camp and Obama friendly media to spin results like this.

Clinton had a very good night IMO.

Except projections show that Obama actually won slightly more delegates.

Projections are conservative right now-  Hildawg is running up the score in CA.
Obama can and will run up some more victories but I can't see him doing it.

[Alcon]

Projections are conservative right now-  Hildawg is running up the score in CA.
Obama can and will run up some more victories but I can't see him doing it.

I wish I knew how the delegate count included CA projection.  Because to base it on the current reported delegate count is stupid.  Several California CDs will flip by tomorrow afternoon.

Somehow, I doubt that any of these delegate predictions are taking in a realistic view of California.

[Meeker]

New Mexico wins the award for most incompetent vote counters ever

[Ebowed]

New Mexico wins the award for most incompetent vote counters ever

Does anyone know the cause of delay?  Half the races that closed at the same time were projected before we had any results out of that state.

[Lief 🗽]

Bad weather and very high turnout are the official excuses I'm hearing.

[patrick1]

Projections are conservative right now-  Hildawg is running up the score in CA.
Obama can and will run up some more victories but I can't see him doing it.

I wish I knew how the delegate count included CA projection.  Because to base it on the current reported delegate count is stupid.  Several California CDs will flip by tomorrow afternoon.

Somehow, I doubt that any of these delegate predictions are taking in a realistic view of California.

Sen Clinton winning Alameda can't be a good sign.  Granted I don't know where the early votes have come in from but that is not good sign for Obama.

Obama has run a terrific  campaign but I don't see him pulling together a coalition larger enough that can beat Hil's strengths nationally.  Demographics are stacked against him, IMHO.

[Alcon]

Sen Clinton winning Alameda can't be a good sign.  Granted I don't know where the early votes have come in from but that is not good sign for Obama.

As I said, nothing from the Berkeley-Oakland and Alameda-Newark CDs.  And mostly early votes.  I have no real doubt that Alameda County will vote Obama.

Obama has run a terrific  campaign but I don't see him pulling together a coalition larger enough that can beat Hil's strengths nationally.  Demographics are stacked against him, IMHO.

I respectfully think he has proven himself beyond the point of viability.

[Verily]

Projections are conservative right now-  Hildawg is running up the score in CA.
Obama can and will run up some more victories but I can't see him doing it.

I wish I knew how the delegate count included CA projection.  Because to base it on the current reported delegate count is stupid.  Several California CDs will flip by tomorrow afternoon.

Somehow, I doubt that any of these delegate predictions are taking in a realistic view of California.

Sen Clinton winning Alameda can't be a good sign.  Granted I don't know where the early votes have come in from but that is not good sign for Obama.

Obama has run a terrific  campaign but I don't see him pulling together a coalition larger enough that can beat Hil's strengths nationally.  Demographics are stacked against him, IMHO.

Clinton leading Alameda's early vote is not a surprise; in fact, she leads it by less than she led any other county early save Marin. Obama should rack up a pretty big total in Alameda in the end, though obviously not an enormous victory.

Anyway, now we move on to a series of states which favor Obama. I'm not sure Clinton can keep up her fundraising and numbers if she's losing primaries throughout the rest of February. But maybe.

[Sam Spade]

Los Angeles up to 35% in pushes the Clinton lead back to 17%.

FYI, for Verily, Clinton is winning Ventura County 55%-36% with 51% in.

[Alcon]

Los Angeles up to 35% in pushes the Clinton lead back to 17%.

Still very likely early votes, although I will say the latest Orange push was not inspiring for Obama (he barely gained).

Then again, it's not inconceivable that Orange could still be only doing early ballots at 33% reporting...not inconceivable at all, especially in an affluent, suburban commuter county.  And I believe it has a history of high early turnout.

[patrick1]

Sen Clinton winning Alameda can't be a good sign.  Granted I don't know where the early votes have come in from but that is not good sign for Obama.

As I said, nothing from the Berkeley-Oakland and Alameda-Newark CDs.  And mostly early votes.  I have no real doubt that Alameda County will vote Obama.

Obama has run a terrific  campaign but I don't see him pulling together a coalition larger enough that can beat Hil's strengths nationally.  Demographics are stacked against him, IMHO.

I respectfully think he has proven himself beyond the point of viability.

I think Obama is 100% viable, however, I think Clinton will win. -Of course, I would not bet my house on it. Obama won some nice victories tongiht but I think Clinton is doing what she has to do to win-  MA, NJ and CA are all nice margins for her and solidify her position as a front running with core demographics.  White woman or the dreaded soccer moms are sustainig her and Obama's lack of appeal with Hispanics is troubling for him. 

[Verily]

Los Angeles up to 35% in pushes the Clinton lead back to 17%.

FYI, for Verily, Clinton is winning Ventura County 55%-36% with 51% in.

Guess I was off

I expected somewhat lower Hispanic turnout than what seems to have happened.

[Sam Spade]

Los Angeles up to 35% in pushes the Clinton lead back to 17%.

FYI, for Verily, Clinton is winning Ventura County 55%-36% with 51% in.

Guess I was off

I expected somewhat lower Hispanic turnout than what seems to have happened.

What's interesting is the California appears to be the only state where blacks stayed home?  Anti-Oprah effect?