official Super Tuesday commentary thread (Democrat)

[Wiz in Wis]

Chuck Todd predicts the following delegate wins tonight:

Obama: 841
Clinton: 837

+/- 10 on either side.

No one would have predicted that Obama would lose California, NJ, and MA and still win the delegate race, UNREAL!

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

I won't lie and say that tonight was disappointing.

The media narrative will probably be how Obama won 14 of 22 states!

Please, don't kid yourself. The media narrative will be "Clinton wins California and the Northeast" not "Obama Wins a Bunch of Little Caucus States in Flyover Country". Obama has a good amount to spin but the media will be focused on California and the other large states. I also expect them to continue the constant droning about the delegate count which could be a wash for both.

I'm not sure I'd consider states like Minnesota, Missouri (barely), and Colorado to be "little".  I do agree that California will be the big story, though, and if Clinton does win it by double digits, this race could be over, depending on how voters perceive things.

Neither would I, it's called a hyperbole. I'm more talking about the perception of the states that Obama won versus the states that Clinton won.

Did you caucus for McCain tonight? Not that it mattered, the right guy won our state in both cases.

[Colin]

I won't lie and say that tonight was disappointing.

The media narrative will probably be how Obama won 14 of 22 states!

Please, don't kid yourself. The media narrative will be "Clinton wins California and the Northeast" not "Obama Wins a Bunch of Little Caucus States in Flyover Country". Obama has a good amount to spin but the media will be focused on California and the other large states. I also expect them to continue the constant droning about the delegate count which could be a wash for both.

I'm not sure I'd consider states like Minnesota, Missouri (barely), and Colorado to be "little".  I do agree that California will be the big story, though, and if Clinton does win it by double digits, this race could be over, depending on how voters perceive things.

Neither would I, it's called a hyperbole. I'm more talking about the perception of the states that Obama won versus the states that Clinton won.

Did you caucus for McCain tonight? Not that it mattered, the right guy won our state in both cases.

I didn't caucus. I missed the bus from campus due to the dining hall food giving me a slight case of food poisoning. So, no, I wasn't able to. Doesn't seem like it mattered in the end giving Romney's large advantage.

[Sbane]

godamnit california

[Verily]

Chuck Todd predicts the following delegate wins tonight:

Obama: 841
Clinton: 837

+/- 10 on either side.

Seriously? I don't see how Obama can lead pledged delegates tonight, but I'll take it. if that is, indeed, the outcome, then the narrative of Clinton winning various big states can be countered by Obama winning the most delegates. In which case I'm reasonably happy.

That's a big if, though. I don't really buy that forecast. At all.

[Tender Branson]

McCain is great: "I´m going to win NY in the GE"

NY Democratic Turnout today: 1.8 Mio.

NY Republican Turnout today: 0.6 Mio.

Not that I expect Clinton or Obama to dump McCain 75-25 in November, but anyway a good joke by him.

[The Duke]

Obama is only winning in Marin County right now.  He's getting demolished.

The Congressional Districts are going to be huge for Hillary, and the delegate splitting will not be as much help to Barack as everyone thought unless the margin shrinks big time.

Hillary will limp to the nomination in a battle that goes all the way to April 22nd in Pennsylvania and will need superdelegates to put her over the top.  The Republicans effectively havbe their nominee already.  A exhausted Democratic Party will have to go into the general election with the most divisive Democratic nominee since Michael Dukakis and they'll do so against a Republican with more independent and cross party appeal than any Republican nominee since Teddy Roosevelt.

I just have one question: Do Democrats enjoy losing?

[J. J.]

It's now about how much money can Obama raise.  I'm going to bet not as much.

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

I won't lie and say that tonight was disappointing.

The media narrative will probably be how Obama won 14 of 22 states!

Please, don't kid yourself. The media narrative will be "Clinton wins California and the Northeast" not "Obama Wins a Bunch of Little Caucus States in Flyover Country". Obama has a good amount to spin but the media will be focused on California and the other large states. I also expect them to continue the constant droning about the delegate count which could be a wash for both.

I'm not sure I'd consider states like Minnesota, Missouri (barely), and Colorado to be "little".  I do agree that California will be the big story, though, and if Clinton does win it by double digits, this race could be over, depending on how voters perceive things.

Neither would I, it's called a hyperbole. I'm more talking about the perception of the states that Obama won versus the states that Clinton won.

Did you caucus for McCain tonight? Not that it mattered, the right guy won our state in both cases.

I didn't caucus. I missed the bus from campus due to the dining hall food giving me a slight case of food poisoning. So, no, I wasn't able to. Doesn't seem like it mattered in the end giving Romney's large advantage.

Well you would've been disappointed unlike me. My caucus:

Obama - 411
Clinton - 53

[Aizen]

I won't lie and say that tonight was disappointing.

The media narrative will probably be how Obama won 14 of 22 states!

Please, don't kid yourself. The media narrative will be "Clinton wins California and the Northeast" not "Obama Wins a Bunch of Little Caucus States in Flyover Country". Obama has a good amount to spin but the media will be focused on California and the other large states. I also expect them to continue the constant droning about the delegate count which could be a wash for both.

I'm not sure I'd consider states like Minnesota, Missouri (barely), and Colorado to be "little".  I do agree that California will be the big story, though, and if Clinton does win it by double digits, this race could be over, depending on how voters perceive things.

Neither would I, it's called a hyperbole. I'm more talking about the perception of the states that Obama won versus the states that Clinton won.

Did you caucus for McCain tonight? Not that it mattered, the right guy won our state in both cases.

Same here

[Verily]

It's now about how much money can Obama raise.  I'm going to bet not as much.

Well, his highest fundraising came right after the NH loss, so perhaps not.

[Lief 🗽]

The percentages for Edwards and Giuliani should make it clear that we're still dealing mostly month-old ballots. By the time 100% is counted, both races should tighten significantly.

[Colin]

I won't lie and say that tonight was disappointing.

The media narrative will probably be how Obama won 14 of 22 states!

Please, don't kid yourself. The media narrative will be "Clinton wins California and the Northeast" not "Obama Wins a Bunch of Little Caucus States in Flyover Country". Obama has a good amount to spin but the media will be focused on California and the other large states. I also expect them to continue the constant droning about the delegate count which could be a wash for both.

I'm not sure I'd consider states like Minnesota, Missouri (barely), and Colorado to be "little".  I do agree that California will be the big story, though, and if Clinton does win it by double digits, this race could be over, depending on how voters perceive things.

Neither would I, it's called a hyperbole. I'm more talking about the perception of the states that Obama won versus the states that Clinton won.

Did you caucus for McCain tonight? Not that it mattered, the right guy won our state in both cases.

I didn't caucus. I missed the bus from campus due to the dining hall food giving me a slight case of food poisoning. So, no, I wasn't able to. Doesn't seem like it mattered in the end giving Romney's large advantage.

Well you would've been disappointed unlike me. My caucus:

Obama - 411
Clinton - 53

Where did you find the results? I'm rather interested to see how Northfield Middle School, my caucus location, voted.

[Verily]

He knows the results because he was there, I assume.

[Gabu]

For what it's worth, here's CNN's headline:

"McCain is front-runner; Dems' race not settled"

Whether or not that reflects Joe American's perception is up to you to decide.

[Keystone Phil]

Where did you find the results? I'm rather interested to see how Northfield Middle School, my caucus location, voted.

Oh, wow. You haven't heard 235 times already that BRTD was at his caucus, became a delegate, etc.?

That's how he knows.

[Alcon]

If what just happened in Placer, Sierra, and Trinity Counties, California, holds up statewide, the exit poll results may not be too far off.

Obama fans, don't despair yet.

[emailking]

The percentages for Edwards and Giuliani should make it clear that we're still dealing mostly month-old ballots. By the time 100% is counted, both races should tighten significantly.

That's not clear to me at all. Why can't it be integrated results from select precincts?

[Colin]

Where did you find the results? I'm rather interested to see how Northfield Middle School, my caucus location, voted.

Oh, wow. You haven't heard 235 times already that BRTD was at his caucus, became a delegate, etc.?

That's how he knows.

He wouldn't know the actual numbers though. I remember him stating that he was pissed because the numbers from his precinct weren't in yet and although he knew Obama had won he didn't know the actual result.

[Eraserhead]

Maybe Obama should have actually campaigned in California instead of just sending surrogates in there.

[Verily]

If what just happened in Placer, Sierra, and Trinity Counties, California, holds up statewide, the exit poll results may not be too far off.

Obama fans, don't despair yet.

Well, Trinity County means that Obama wins the first CA county to fully report

Not sure what you mean about Placer County, though.

[Aizen]

Really, these margins of victory for Obama in these "middle-America" states is staggering

Utah: 56%
North Dakota: 61%
Illinois: 65%
Colorado: 67%
Minnestoa: 67%
Alaska: 73%
Kansas: 73%
Idaho: 81%


Too bad he couldn't muster up these numbers in the bigger states.

[exopolitician]

Alot of states in play have had "significant" wins by both candidates....with just a handful tight wins/loses.

13 victories to 8...we'll take it ja

[หมูเด้ง]

Alot of states in play have had "significant" wins by both candidates....with just a handful tight wins/loses.

13 victories to 8...we'll take it ja

HEELLLLLLLLL YEAH!!!

[MarkWarner08]

Really, these margins of victory for Obama in these "middle-America" states is staggering

Utah: 56%
North Dakota: 61%
Illinois: 65%
Colorado: 67%
Minnestoa: 67%
Alaska: 73%
Kansas: 73%
Idaho: 81%


Too bad he couldn't muster up these numbers in the bigger states.

Those numbers must be imaginary because Obama has no appeal to white voters.