1952: Kefauver/Harriman v. Taft/Nixon v. Russell/Byrd

[Хahar 🤔]

This scenario is based on two premises:

1) Adlai Stevenson states that he will not accept the Democratic nomination.
2) Dwight Eisenhower states that he will not accept the Democratic or Republican nomination.

Tennessee Senator Estes Kefauver ends up winning at the convention, but only after the Southerners walk out. He chooses New York Governor Averell Harrian as his running mate.

Ohio Senator Robert Taft wins the Republican nomination easily. He chooses California Senator Richard Nixon as his running mate.

The Southern delegations that walked out of the DNC choose Georgia Senator Richard Russell, along with Virginia Senator Harry Byrd.

Since Taft and Russell were heads of the conservative coalition, do they split votes? Discuss with maps.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Kefauver/Harriman: 46% PV, 238 EV
Taft/Nixon: 44% PV, 224 EV
Russell/Byrd: 10% PV, 69 EV
In all probability, the House elects Kefauver, although it's possible that the Southerners refuse to vote for him, and give it to Taft.  I could see Byrd being elected VP in the Senate.

[Хahar 🤔]

Kefauver/Harriman: 46% PV, 238 EV
Taft/Nixon: 44% PV, 224 EV
Russell/Byrd: 10% PV, 69 EV
In all probability, the House elects Kefauver, although it's possible that the Southerners refuse to vote for him, and give it to Taft.  I could see Byrd being elected VP in the Senate.

Buyrd could not be elected Vice President, since the Senate chooses between the top two candidates.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Kefauver/Harriman: 46% PV, 238 EV
Taft/Nixon: 44% PV, 224 EV
Russell/Byrd: 10% PV, 69 EV
In all probability, the House elects Kefauver, although it's possible that the Southerners refuse to vote for him, and give it to Taft.  I could see Byrd being elected VP in the Senate.

Buyrd could not be elected Vice President, since the Senate chooses between the top two candidates.

Right, then Harriman is elected easily.

[CPT MikeyMike]

Kefauver/Harriman: 46% PV, 238 EV
Taft/Nixon: 44% PV, 224 EV
Russell/Byrd: 10% PV, 69 EV
In all probability, the House elects Kefauver, although it's possible that the Southerners refuse to vote for him, and give it to Taft.  I could see Byrd being elected VP in the Senate.

Uh.....NO. No Democrat was going to win in 1952. There was too much party fatigue.

Taft: 290
Kefauver: 160
Russell: 81

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Kefauver/Harriman: 46% PV, 238 EV
Taft/Nixon: 44% PV, 224 EV
Russell/Byrd: 10% PV, 69 EV
In all probability, the House elects Kefauver, although it's possible that the Southerners refuse to vote for him, and give it to Taft.  I could see Byrd being elected VP in the Senate.

Uh.....NO. No Democrat was going to win in 1952. There was too much party fatigue.

Taft: 290
Kefauver: 160
Russell: 81

I think a big part of Eisenhower's win was his personality.  Also, if Russell doesn't run, then I could see a number of Southern state going to Taft, giving him a narrow victory.