bullmoose88 vs. Frodo

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Who wins in this matchup between bullmoose88 and Frodo?

I'm not sure what a map would look like if these two faced off for the Presidency but I'll work one out later.

Discuss.

[jokerman]

[bgwah]

Bullmoose/Bullmoose

Considering Frodo would probably switch parties about four times between the time he declared and the general election, most people would probably just go with Bullmoose.

As for Preston's map, I highly doubt that many Republicans and independents-who-tend-to-lean Republican would cross party lines to vote for a mixed race guy--they would probably prefer a good ol' white boy (at least I think Bullmoose is white!).

[War on Want]

Frodo/Frodo, because Bullmoose is just to Republican on economics. At least Frodo is moderate.

[War on Want]

[Frodo]

Bullmoose/Bullmoose

Considering Frodo would probably switch parties about four times between the time he declared and the general election, most people would probably just go with Bullmoose.

You sure you don't have Josh22 and me mixed up? 

How often have I switched parties since I first became active on this forum?  Except for a very brief period, I have been a Democrat practically the whole time I have been here. 

[bgwah]

Bullmoose/Bullmoose

Considering Frodo would probably switch parties about four times between the time he declared and the general election, most people would probably just go with Bullmoose.

You sure you don't have Josh22 and me mixed up? 

How often have I switched parties since I first became active on this forum?  Except for a very brief period, I have been a Democrat practically the whole time I have been here. 

Haha, well maybe I exaggerated. I also remember you mentioning going from a College Republican to a liberal Democrat in one year.

[Frodo]

Bullmoose/Bullmoose

Considering Frodo would probably switch parties about four times between the time he declared and the general election, most people would probably just go with Bullmoose.

You sure you don't have Josh22 and me mixed up? 

How often have I switched parties since I first became active on this forum?  Except for a very brief period, I have been a Democrat practically the whole time I have been here. 

Haha, well maybe I exaggerated. I also remember you mentioning going from a College Republican to a liberal Democrat in one year.

Yes, and I was a Republican since high school when I first became seriously interested in politics.  And that switch in my political loyalties happened late in 2002.  Ever since, I have been a Democrat, though my ideology may have changed a bit over the years. 

[Frodo]

And I see I am not particularly popular around here... 

[bullmoose88]

I guess the questions you have to ask yourself map wise are

1) To what extent does the poster, his ideology, and the state's aggregate political ideology counteract the natural partisan leaning in the state

2) How do geographical preferences come into play, do some states vote for against the southerner or the yankee

And my humble attempt at a map...(disregarding any sort of "racial voting," and yes jesus, I'm a white guy...)

Frodo-Red: 246
Me-Blue: 292

Notes

Texas, IMHO would probably (and mathmatically does, decide the election.  If Frodo were to win Texas, he wins 280-258

Florida, Wisconsin, Illinois, the Dakotas were the next states I was deliberating a flip

Every state winner has at least 50% of the vote, (I won Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, Delaware, Connecticut, New Jersey, Vermont, and New Hampshire with 60%) (Frodo won DC 80%, Virginia, Arkansas, and Kentucky with >60%, and West Virginia >70%)

I gave Frodo a much bigger bounce in VA than I did myself in PA because I think Frodo (a pro 2nd Amendment democrat could give me a big run for my money here, though I might have sold myself short in NoVa)

I had trouble flipping, initially flipping very Republican and Democratic states but did so considering the following factors, southern states ala carter in 1976 would flip for the southern candidate this time only, while the Yankee would have the similar effect in parts of the North (see Ford)

The West was very difficult I toned down some of the heavy republican percentage in all but the most "libertarian" of states, and even then I still wonder if Frodo could break the 40% mark, but favored myself largely on GOP history, the fact I think I could beat Frodo in California (not by terribly much mind you) and Carter's relatively weak 1976 performance.

[jokerman]

I admit I might be underestimating bullmoose's support in the Northeast, but how does he play well in the mountain west or midwest?  Even in the former, where voters would be most receptive of his ideology he wouldn't really have the temperament that appeals to the people there.

[bullmoose88]

I admit I might be underestimating bullmoose's support in the Northeast, but how does he play well in the mountain west or midwest?  Even in the former, where voters would be most receptive of his ideology he wouldn't really have the temperament that appeals to the people there.

Thats a very good point.

I kinda looked at Ford v. Carter, and figured that outside of the plains, party ID and the libertarianesque ideology might just be enough...you don't have to buy that of course.

[bullmoose88]

My map may also be slightly biased...so more maps would certainly be interesting and welcome from my point of view.

[Cubby]

And my humble attempt at a map...(disregarding any sort of "racial voting," and yes jesus, I'm a white guy...)

bgwah and jesus are two different people


I can't believe I'm the first person to vote bullmoose/frodo. Frodo would win because he's conservative (more than bullmoose on social issues), thats all matters to 30-40% of the voting population.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

bullmoose88 (R): 305 Electoral Votes
Frodo (D): 233 Electoral Votes

California could go either way in this scenario. I used the 1976 Presidential Map between Ford and Carter as a guide for this Electoral Map.

[Eraserhead]

bullmoose/bullmoose

[bullmoose88]

And my humble attempt at a map...(disregarding any sort of "racial voting," and yes jesus, I'm a white guy...)

bgwah and jesus are two different people

Are you sure?

I thought bgwah was Jesus' original name and then he recently switched back?

[Cubby]

And my humble attempt at a map...(disregarding any sort of "racial voting," and yes jesus, I'm a white guy...)

bgwah and jesus are two different people

Are you sure?

I thought bgwah was Jesus' original name and then he recently switched back?

I'm not completely sure. I thought if people switched names the old one appeared under their new name.

[Verily]

And my humble attempt at a map...(disregarding any sort of "racial voting," and yes jesus, I'm a white guy...)

bgwah and jesus are two different people

Are you sure?

I thought bgwah was Jesus' original name and then he recently switched back?

This is correct.

[Хahar 🤔]

And my humble attempt at a map...(disregarding any sort of "racial voting," and yes jesus, I'm a white guy...)

bgwah and jesus are two different people

Are you sure?

I thought bgwah was Jesus' original name and then he recently switched back?

I'm not completely sure. I thought if people switched names the old one appeared under their new name.

That's the user name that appears below. For instance, I log in as "Xahar".

[bullmoose88]

Here's another map

[TomC]

Bullmoose/Bullmoose. It'd be close though.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Frodo/Frodo