CA: Survey USA: Clinton gets 60% against Giuliani

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: California President by Survey USA on 2008-01-21

Summary: D: 60%, R: 33%, U: 6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Alcon]

Clinton +19 over McCain

Wtf is it with California this cycle?  It's suddenly got a lot more Democratic for no apparent reason.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Maybe they just really want Hillary?

[Stranger in a strange land]

Clinton +19 over McCain

Wtf is it with California this cycle?  It's suddenly got a lot more Democratic for no apparent reason.

The GOP alienating Hispanics had nothing to do with it?

[Alcon]

The GOP alienating Hispanics had nothing to do with it?

Assuming Clinton vs. McCain is electorally analogous to Bush vs. Kerry (it isn't, especially not right now)

And that whites are just as Democratic in a Clinton vs. McCain race as a Bush vs. Kerry one

Latino Bush voters accounted for 7% of the California population in 2004; or, a third of Latino voters.

Alone, it's not enough to account for the difference.

Maybe it's wonky early polling, but something seems to be going on here.

[Aizen]

California is trending more and more Democratic like the rest of the West Coast but this still seems a bit high.

[Smash255]

In 2004 California was about 12.5% more Democratic than nationally.   A 3-4 % Dem shift compared to nationally isn't much of a stretch (slight Dem trend as a whole in the state + Hispanics fleeing the GOP) which puts the state in the 15-16% more Democratic than nationally range.  Against McCain that would be in line with some polls,  regarding Giuliani keep in mind he is getting trounced by Clinton in recent polls (average of the last few is around 13), so its pretty much dead on when you look at the national numbers, and how the state compares to the nation. 

Not saying it is indeed that large, but when you look at how the numbers in California compare to the national numbers we have seen they generally are in the range you would expect in California for those type of national numbers.