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  KS: Survey USA: Clinton leads Giuliani by 6
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Author Topic: KS: Survey USA: Clinton leads Giuliani by 6  (Read 2046 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: January 18, 2008, 01:59:10 pm »

New Poll: Kansas President by Survey USA on 2008-01-17

Summary: D: 48%, R: 42%, U: 10%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details


Clinton vs. Giuliani: 48-42

Clinton vs. Romney: 47-44

Clinton vs. Huckabee: 47-46

Clinton vs. McCain: 40-53



Obama vs. Giuliani: 43-45

Obama vs. Romney: 45-43

Obama vs. Huckabee: 44-46

Obama vs. McCain: 39-53
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HardRCafé
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« Reply #1 on: January 18, 2008, 02:52:24 pm »

I take back what I said about the other poll straining credulity.  Yes, Kansas is clamoring for Hillary Clinton.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #2 on: January 18, 2008, 03:01:02 pm »

If this is true, Nancy Boyda will be fine in KS-02. 
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HardRCafé
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« Reply #3 on: January 18, 2008, 03:05:04 pm »

If this is true, I also have a real big bridge to sell you, cheap.
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Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #4 on: January 18, 2008, 03:05:38 pm »

40-53 with mcCain honeymoon... I suppose that Clinton will get 43 or 44 in Kansas no matter what.
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Adlai Stevenson
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« Reply #5 on: January 18, 2008, 05:32:05 pm »

The Democrats will definitely break 40% in Kansas...if all goes to plan anyway. 
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #6 on: January 18, 2008, 05:36:52 pm »

LOL! Accurate!
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phk
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« Reply #7 on: January 18, 2008, 05:58:38 pm »

Democrats will be in the range of 40% to 45%.
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #8 on: January 18, 2008, 06:00:51 pm »

Why bother polling Giuliani?  He was relevant in 2007, but not now.
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Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #9 on: January 18, 2008, 06:36:08 pm »

Democrats will be in the range of 40% to 45%.

It will 43.5-55.5
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12th Doctor
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« Reply #10 on: January 18, 2008, 06:43:10 pm »


Really, you are joking, right?
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Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #11 on: January 18, 2008, 06:43:46 pm »

That's what the polls say.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #12 on: January 18, 2008, 10:33:41 pm »


It's January and we're talking about unknown Republican opponents.
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Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #13 on: January 18, 2008, 10:45:27 pm »

But McCain is being pushed at the moment and 13 points is the best he can do.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #14 on: January 18, 2008, 10:47:18 pm »


It's January and we're talking about unknown Republican opponents.

How are they unknown?
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TomC
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« Reply #15 on: January 18, 2008, 10:53:27 pm »


It's January and we're talking about unknown Republican opponents.

How are they unknown?

Yeah, Giuliani is hardly unknown. Look, this poll won't hold, but it's hardly unbelievable. Giuliani is a former NYC Mayor who had overt affairs and whose son wants nothing to do with him, is for gun control, abortion and gay rights. Clinton lived for two decades in the state next door and has been selling her competence like crazy. It's hardly surprising Giuliani would be kind of weak here in the heartland.
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Adlai Stevenson
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« Reply #16 on: January 19, 2008, 09:59:14 am »

My predictions (based on nothing) -

KANSAS -
58% (R) McCain
40% (D) Clinton


56% (R) McCain
42% (D) Obama


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War on Want
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« Reply #17 on: January 19, 2008, 01:04:06 pm »

My predictions:
McCain 56%
Clinton 42%

McCain 55%
Obama 44%
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Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #18 on: January 20, 2008, 11:10:16 am »

My predictions:
McCain 56%
Clinton 42%

McCain 55%
Obama 44%

43 for Clinton...
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #19 on: January 20, 2008, 01:26:11 pm »


It's January and we're talking about unknown Republican opponents.

How are they unknown?

Yeah, Giuliani is hardly unknown. Look, this poll won't hold, but it's hardly unbelievable. Giuliani is a former NYC Mayor who had overt affairs and whose son wants nothing to do with him, is for gun control, abortion and gay rights. Clinton lived for two decades in the state next door and has been selling her competence like crazy. It's hardly surprising Giuliani would be kind of weak here in the heartland.

We're talking about the candidates getting creamed in the polls. Rudy isn't unknown. Huckabee and Romney are. Not everyone is a political junkie. It's safe to say that a majority of people have never even heard of those two people.
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Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #20 on: January 20, 2008, 01:33:01 pm »


It's January and we're talking about unknown Republican opponents.

How are they unknown?

Yeah, Giuliani is hardly unknown. Look, this poll won't hold, but it's hardly unbelievable. Giuliani is a former NYC Mayor who had overt affairs and whose son wants nothing to do with him, is for gun control, abortion and gay rights. Clinton lived for two decades in the state next door and has been selling her competence like crazy. It's hardly surprising Giuliani would be kind of weak here in the heartland.

We're talking about the candidates getting creamed in the polls. Rudy isn't unknown. Huckabee and Romney are. Not everyone is a political junkie. It's safe to say that a majority of people have never even heard of those two people.

yeah, but I don't think they matter.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #21 on: January 20, 2008, 01:33:47 pm »
« Edited: January 21, 2008, 01:15:33 am by Keystone Phil »


If they are more likely to get the nomination than Rudy, how can they not matter?
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #22 on: January 20, 2008, 03:15:58 pm »

So, if we're calling this 13 point lead set in stone because everyone knows Hillary and McCain, then I suppose we can call the race in Massachusetts set in stone as a 10 point Hillary lead.  Right?

Riiiiiiight?

Stupid.
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Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #23 on: January 20, 2008, 03:19:17 pm »

So, if we're calling this 13 point lead set in stone because everyone knows Hillary and McCain, then I suppose we can call the race in Massachusetts set in stone as a 10 point Hillary lead.  Right?

Riiiiiiight?

Stupid.

That's a good point.
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #24 on: January 21, 2008, 06:05:01 am »

Someone sent me a message asking for further clarification of my point.  Let me paraphrase my reply.

It is silly to think numbers like these set in stone, because while people know plenty about John McCain and Hillary Clinton already, few are viewing these elections in partisan terms right now.  McCain's lofty numbers in Massachusetts and Hillary's similar numbers in Kansas are built on the political equivalent of a house of cards: independents who usually vote for the other party who have yet to seriously consider the candidates and the meaning of said candidates' victories.

This is the same thing that happened early in 2000.  Bush had strong numbers in places like New Jersey and New England early on.  They disappeared once the campaign seriously began.

People are making snap judgements based on low information personality assessments, or based on an "ideal" Clinton versus an "ideal" McCain, where the voters' imaginations define the issues.  Neither of these two judgements will hold up over time as this general election campaign begins in earnest.  McCain, his surrogates, and the media have not yet made the arguement as to why Hillary Clinton is wrong for the country in terms that these typical Republican-voting independents in Kansas will appreciate.  Likewise, Massachusetts independent voters are thinking about what a strong commander in chief McCain will make or about how much better McCain would be than Bush, having yet to consider things like what a McCain presidency will mean for the Supreme Court.

As the GENERAL election campaign begins, peoples' underlying partisanships will begin to come out, and Massachusetts will move back towards Hillary > 20%.  Kansas will do the same, but towards McCain > 20%.
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