Friday, January 18, 2008
Former Mayor Rudy Giuliani has yet to win a primary and his national support among GOP voters has plummeted. But he remains competitive in match-ups with the top Democratic contenders. A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of the presidential race shows Senator Hillary Clinton leading Giuliani 45% to 42%. Senator Barack Obama leads Giuliani 47% to 41%.
Though always an issue, race and gender recently emerged as explicitly contentious topics in the Democratic nomination race. Both Clinton and Obama do better against Giuliani with women in the match-ups--Clinton leads 52% to 37% among female voters while Obama leads 49% to 37%. Obama has a markedly better advantage with blacks, leading Giuliani 81% to 8% among this group. Clinton's lead among black voters is 63% to 28%.
The new survey shows Giuliani recovering lost ground in the match-up with Obama. In an early January survey conducted just as Obama was winning the Iowa caucus, the Republican's support slipped to an unprecedented low of 37% against Obama—a ten-point deficit. In no previous Rasmussen Reports survey of the match-up had Giuliani's support ever dipped below 40%. Since August, the margin between the two candidates had never been wider than five points.
The Giuliani-Clinton match-up has been relatively stable and competitive. In our last survey of the contest, conducted mid-December, Giuliani led the former First Lady by a single percentage point. But he had lagged by three in early December and by four in November.
Hillary Clinton is now viewed favorably by 49%, unfavorably by 50%. Barack Obama is viewed favorably by 51%, unfavorably by 47%.
Mayor Giuliani's increasingly rocky road is exemplified by the collapse of his favorable rating, now at 36% favorable and 58% unfavorable. Until May of 2007 his favorable rating was regularly in the 60s, and it twice reached 70%.
Although Giuliani's late-push primary strategy has turned Florida into a do-or-die contest for him, he's in a four-way slugfest there. At present, even Big-Apple neighbor New Jersey is no slam dunk for the former New York City mayor. In national polling, Giuliani has fallen well off the pace in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.
In the Democratic race, Clinton leads nationally. In South Carolina, Obama has the advantage while Clinton leads in Florida.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics
