Michigan GOP Results thread II

[ZamboniDriver]

CD Results (Preliminary):

CD 1:
Romney 32.9%
McCain 35.5%

CD 2:
Romney 31.6%
McCain 37.0%

CD 3:
Romney 37.0%
McCain 31.3%

CD 4:
Romney 36.5%
McCain 33.8%

CD 5:
Romney 33.8%
McCain 27.1%

CD 6:
Romney 24.4%
McCain 36.7%

CD 7:
Romney 33.5%
McCain 32.4%

CD 8:
(No results reported by SoS)

CD 9:
(No results)

CD 10:
Romney 42.5%
McCain 25.2%

CD 11:
(No results)

CD 12:
Romney 44.6%
McCain 24.9%

CD 13:
(No results)

CD 15:
(No results)

If it's two per CD, that should be a total of 6 for McCain, 14 for Romney, 10 unassigned.

It looks like Romney won CDs 8,  9, 11, 13, 14, & 15.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The Michigan Republican party statement:

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[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Romney 326,338 39%
 McCain 248,645 30%
 Huckabee 134,936 16%
 Paul 52,510 6%
 Thompson 30,976 4%
 Giuliani 23,784 3%
 Uncommitted 17,304 2%
 Hunter 2,716 0%

94% reporting

[Lincoln Republican]

This result stems from:

A. Romney's Native Son advantage
B. Lack of significant Independent and Democrat turnout
C. Poor weather conditions affecting turnout

This clearly does not bode well for your hero in all the states coming up that have closed Republican primaries.

[ZamboniDriver]

MSNBC has given Romney 13 delegates, McCain 10 delegates, and Huckabee 5.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21229213

[muon2]

The MI GOP rules are based on 60 delegates. Under those rules, there are three delegates given to the winner of each CD. That would assign 45 of the 60. There are 12 delegates assigned proportionally based on the votes cast for candidates in excess of 15%. The last three delegates are superdelegates from party leadership.

The party imposed a 50% penalty on the delegate total due to the early date. It's not clear if that reduces the count, or just causes each delegate to cast half a vote. In any case, there will certainly be some attempt by the state to reverse the national ruling in the run up to the convention. In case that happens, MI will certainly want to assign delegates and alternates based on their full count of 60.

[patrick1]

This result stems from:

A. Romney's Native Son advantage
B. Lack of significant Independent and Democrat turnout
C. Poor weather conditions affecting turnout

This clearly does not bode well for your hero in all the states coming up that have closed Republican primaries.

I am a McCain supporter and this does not bode well for any of the Republicans. You need independents and some Dems to defect in order to win an election.

The Dem primary meant absolutely nothing and they nearly had 40% of the votes cast.  This is a traditionally close state- not RI or Mass.

I think G. Will may be right and the Republicans are going down across thw board this fall.

[Lincoln Republican]

First, one must win the nomination.

Without heavy Republican support in closed Reublican primaries, a candidate is not going to win the nomination.

After winning the nomination, your message is then geared to winning the election over a broader range of voters.

[Јas]

Michigan Republican Primary Results   

Precincts: 100%
Source: AP

Candidate	Votes	%
Mitt Romney	337,847	39%
John McCain	257,521	30%
Mike Huckabee	139,699	16%
Ron Paul	54,434	6%
Fred Thompson	32,135	4%
Rudy Giuliani	24,706	3%
Uncommitted	17,971	2%
Duncan Hunter	2,823	0%
Tom Tancredo	458	0%
Sam Brownback	354	0%

[Sam Spade]

I suspect the networks are simply waiting for the UP counties to close before calling this one.  Unless they want to see more same-day results or something, as opposed to absentees (understandable), where Mitt is winning handily.

All in all, I suspect this one ends up at about Mitt 5%-10% (early guesstimate)

This prediction is pretty good for one made with 5% of the vote in, even I have to admit, with the final result at Mitt +9.25%

[muon2]

I find it interesting that the media results don't seem to agree on the delegates out of MI last night. CBS News has Rom 23, McC 6,  Huc 1. CNN has Rom 12, McC 9, Huc 1. It seems to me that only the Green Papers has really tried to follow the MI GOP rules. They list Rom 19, McC 8, Huc 3. They also note the count that would come without the penalty and get Rom 42, McC 13, Huc 2, super 3.

I'd note that they are using SoS data that has an error in CD 14. The SOS shows an astounding 46,666 votes for McCain from that Wayne district! That's clearly not right is one looks at the SoS totals by county, and I'd guess that the real McCain total is 4,666 giving the CD to Romney. If I make that correction then the estimated count would be Rom 20, McC 7, Huc 3 (or 45, 10, 2, and 3 super out of 60). If the state party keeps its superdelegates separate, and follows the GP allocation guess then the count is Rom 19, McC 6, Huc 2, and 3 super.

[Erc]

Even the Green Papers has issues...

No-one really knows which half of the delegation MI would seat if they were forced to seat only half.  The Green Papers' allocation doesn't quite work, as part of the half that is lost must include the 3 party chairs--meaning MI can't have more than 12 At-Large delegates.  (This is the reason why Huckabee's count goes down when the Green Papers restores the full delegation).

The system that would make the most sense (and would be the easiest to implement) would be to just seat 2 delegates per CD, which would yield Romney 26, McCain 4.  That's the count I'm using in my Delegate Count threads, but none of the media agree with me.
(Alternatively, you could seat all 12 At-Large & then reward 3 CD's with a second delegate).


My best guess for what the media are doing is taking the full unsanctioned delegate count and dividing each candidate's total in half.  Not a bad estimate, but wrong (I don't think they allow 'half-delegates' at the Convention).

[© tweed]

Rudy Giuliani

24,706

3%

what a thug

[defe07]

And Paul finishes 4th, inspite of the fact he got a little over 6% and lower% than in Iowa or New Hampshire. Good for him!