Kerry and the media
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Beet
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« Reply #50 on: February 25, 2004, 04:48:05 PM »
Wouldn't he win his homestate?
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #51 on: February 25, 2004, 04:50:45 PM »

No, Bush won it by 13% last time, so it would take a 6.5% swing, which I can't see happening.
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Beet
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« Reply #52 on: February 25, 2004, 04:54:10 PM »
Quote from: Miamiu1027 on February 25, 2004, 04:50:45 PM

No, Bush won it by 13% last time, so it would take a 6.5% swing, which I can't see happening.

At one point, I think after Iowa, polls showed Edwards leading Bush by 1% in North Carolina. Certainly nothing huge, but winning the nomination (if it happened) really changes people's perceptions (witness the impact of the primaries thus far).
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #53 on: February 25, 2004, 04:57:51 PM »
Quote from: Beet on February 25, 2004, 04:54:10 PM
Quote from: Miamiu1027 on February 25, 2004, 04:50:45 PM

No, Bush won it by 13% last time, so it would take a 6.5% swing, which I can't see happening.

At one point, I think after Iowa, polls showed Edwards leading Bush by 1% in North Carolina. Certainly nothing huge, but winning the nomination (if it happened) really changes people's perceptions (witness the impact of the primaries thus far).

The last NC poll I have seen has it Bush 52%-Edwards 45%.
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Beet
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« Reply #54 on: February 25, 2004, 04:59:38 PM »
Quote from: Miamiu1027 on February 25, 2004, 04:57:51 PM
Quote from: Beet on February 25, 2004, 04:54:10 PM
Quote from: Miamiu1027 on February 25, 2004, 04:50:45 PM

No, Bush won it by 13% last time, so it would take a 6.5% swing, which I can't see happening.

At one point, I think after Iowa, polls showed Edwards leading Bush by 1% in North Carolina. Certainly nothing huge, but winning the nomination (if it happened) really changes people's perceptions (witness the impact of the primaries thus far).

The last NC poll I have seen has it Bush 52%-Edwards 45%.

Actually you know what you're right, the home state advantage isn't what it used to be. Bush would probably win it barring the economy double-dipping.
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classical liberal
RightWingNut
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« Reply #55 on: February 25, 2004, 05:04:51 PM »
Quote from: Beet on February 25, 2004, 04:59:38 PM

Actually you know what you're right, the home state advantage isn't what it used to be. Bush would probably win it barring the economy double-dipping.


You wouldn't ahppen to be making excuses about Gore losing Tenessee, would you?
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Beet
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« Reply #56 on: February 25, 2004, 05:06:08 PM »
Quote from: RightWingNut on February 25, 2004, 05:04:51 PM
Quote from: Beet on February 25, 2004, 04:59:38 PM

Actually you know what you're right, the home state advantage isn't what it used to be. Bush would probably win it barring the economy double-dipping.


You wouldn't ahppen to be making excuses about Gore losing Tenessee, would you?

No, since parties have become more about ideology and less about local familiarity, it is genuinely less important which state you are from.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #57 on: February 25, 2004, 05:09:43 PM »
Governors usually have great chances of winning their home state, but tht is less true for Senators.
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