MD-Rasmussen: Clinton would lose solid Democratic state to McCain

[Tender Branson]

Obama: 48%
McCain: 42%

McCain: 45%
Clinton: 43%

Obama: 55%
Romney: 34%

Clinton: 52%
Romney: 39%

...

McCain: 69% Favorable - 26% Unfavorable
Obama: 63% Favorable - 34% Unfavorable
Clinton: 51% Favorable - 47% Unfavorable
Romney: 47% Favorable - 45% Unfavorable

...

Bush Approval Rating: 36% Excellent/Good - 63% Fair/Poor
O'Malley Approval Rating: 33% Excellent/Good - 64% Fair/Poor

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics

[Gabu]

McCain: 69% Favorable - 26% Unfavorable

Yeah, I kinda have a feeling that would go down over the course of a general election in a state like Maryland.

[HardRCafé]

O'Malley Approval Rating: 33% Excellent/Good - 64% Fair/Poor

Wow.  When did that happen?

[auburntiger]

I don't buy this poll, nor do I buy the ones that have Indiana at D+5, South Carolina at D+1, or Virginia at D+10.

However, if for some strange reason in November, Maryland gives the Democrat less than a 10% margin of victory, McCain has already won and has outperformed Bush in the EC.

[they don't love you like i love you]

LOL.

This is probably a good argument to chuck all GE polls out now.

[Person Man]

I don't buy this poll, nor do I buy the ones that have Indiana at D+5, South Carolina at D+1, or Virginia at D+10.

However, if for some strange reason in November, Maryland gives the Democrat less than a 10% margin of victory, McCain has already won and has outperformed Bush in the EC.

Yeah, if Clinton sinks below 53% in MD, I predict a Dukakis with 54% of the vote going to McCain.

...and the map looks sorta like 1988....

and if this poll IS true.... I would suspect a Mondale with a PV of 40-59

Here I would suspect the end of the democratic party.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

give clinton arkansas and then it will be perfect.

[Person Man]

give clinton arkansas and then it will be perfect.

LOL...

[they don't love you like i love you]

give clinton arkansas and then it will be perfect.

LOL...

Why do people continually ignore the fact that Clinton leads by more in Arkansas than any other state polled? At least the GOP hack here can recognize this.

[auburntiger]

If the poll in Maryland proves true or McCain wins the popular vote by 6-7%, 1988 style, and I mean HUGE IF, then I don't see how Arkansas can possibly go blue. It would have to jump left by over 15 points. Bill could do that back when Arkansas was much more Dem on the national level. Hillary won't, and Arkansas has been trending GOP. Giving the same argument about state trends vs. the national average:
From '92 to '96, AR swung slightly towards Dole, making Clinton lose ground by 4 points relative to the national average.

[auburntiger]

I don't buy this poll, nor do I buy the ones that have Indiana at D+5, South Carolina at D+1, or Virginia at D+10.

However, if for some strange reason in November, Maryland gives the Democrat less than a 10% margin of victory, McCain has already won and has outperformed Bush in the EC.

Yeah, if Clinton sinks below 53% in MD, I predict a Dukakis with 54% of the vote going to McCain.

...and the map looks sorta like 1988....

and if this poll IS true.... I would suspect a Mondale with a PV of 40-59

Here I would suspect the end of the democratic party.

That would be absolutely BEAUTIFUL...lake McCain

[they don't love you like i love you]

If the poll in Maryland proves true or McCain wins the popular vote by 6-7%, 1988 style, and I mean HUGE IF, then I don't see how Arkansas can possibly go blue. It would have to jump left by over 15 points. Bill could do that back when Arkansas was much more Dem on the national level. Hillary won't, and Arkansas has been trending GOP. Giving the same argument about state trends vs. the national average:
From '92 to '96, AR swung slightly towards Dole, making Clinton lose ground by 4 points relative to the national average.

I'll take polls over faulty trend logic. Go explain the trend in Georgia between 1960 and 1984. There's a hell of a lot of independent factors that can throw it off balance.

[auburntiger]

If the poll in Maryland proves true or McCain wins the popular vote by 6-7%, 1988 style, and I mean HUGE IF, then I don't see how Arkansas can possibly go blue. It would have to jump left by over 15 points. Bill could do that back when Arkansas was much more Dem on the national level. Hillary won't, and Arkansas has been trending GOP. Giving the same argument about state trends vs. the national average:
From '92 to '96, AR swung slightly towards Dole, making Clinton lose ground by 4 points relative to the national average.

I'll take polls over faulty trend logic. Go explain the trend in Georgia between 1960 and 1984. There's a hell of a lot of independent factors that can throw it off balance.

Fair enough. However, I do expect polls to tighten here. And if Huckabee is the VP with McCain, then AR will go down to the wire election night. 

[Eraserhead]

lol @ Hillary.

[Sam Spade]

O'Malley Approval Rating: 33% Excellent/Good - 64% Fair/Poor

Wow.  When did that happen?

Apparently, this is not an outlier. 

The Baltimore Sun released a poll last Sunday that put O'Malley's approval rating at 35%. 

Gonzales Research also released a poll yesterday that pegs his approval at 39%.

Appears to be because of tax increases, among other things, as far as I can tell.

[MarkWarner08]

O'Malley Approval Rating: 33% Excellent/Good - 64% Fair/Poor

Wow.  When did that happen?

Apparently, this is not an outlier. 

The Baltimore Sun released a poll last Sunday that put O'Malley's approval rating at 35%. 

Gonzales Research also released a poll yesterday that pegs his approval at 39%.

Appears to be because of tax increases, among other things, as far as I can tell.

O'Malley also suffers from the Spitzer syndrome of immense hubris.

[12th Doctor]

LOL.

This is probably a good argument to chuck all GE polls out now.

Maryland used to vote for Republicans like McCain all the time.

[HappyWarrior]

O'Malley Approval Rating: 33% Excellent/Good - 64% Fair/Poor

Wow.  When did that happen?

Apparently, this is not an outlier. 

The Baltimore Sun released a poll last Sunday that put O'Malley's approval rating at 35%. 

Gonzales Research also released a poll yesterday that pegs his approval at 39%.

Appears to be because of tax increases, among other things, as far as I can tell.

Thats exactly it.  But at least O'Malley is solving the slots problem.  Btw, I'm one of those Democrats who would vote for McCain over Hillary.