By 2012, Obama has brought the troops home from Iraq, passed Universal Healthcare and a major energy independence initiative, and has dealt successfully with the recession in 2008. Going into 2012 against some random Republican, his approval rating hovers around 60%.
South Dakota almost went to Bill Clinton in 1996. There was only a 3.5% difference (11,000 votes). If Obama wins by a large margin nationally, then its likely he could carry South Dakota.
The state's Native American population is growing faster than the state average (will be about 10% by 2012, up from 7% in 1990). They are heavily Democratic, as you can tell from any election map.
Clinton did well in South Dakota because the Dakotas are full of the type of people who liked him personally (at least until Monica), but couldn't vote for a pro-choice candidate for president also not to discount the Perot factor.
Too many single issue voters in those areas. He over performed amongst White South Dakotans.
