By 2012, Obama has brought the troops home from Iraq, passed Universal Healthcare and a major energy independence initiative, and has dealt successfully with the recession in 2008. Going into 2012 against some random Republican, his approval rating hovers around 60%.
South Dakota almost went to Bill Clinton in 1996. There was only a 3.5% difference (11,000 votes).
If Obama wins by a large margin nationally, then its likely he could carry South Dakota.
The state's Native American population is growing faster than the state average (will be about 10% by 2012, up from 7% in 1990). They are heavily Democratic, as you can tell from any election map.
