2012 Based on latest polling
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 04:47:02 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: 15 Down, 35 To Go)
  2012 Based on latest polling
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: 2012 Based on latest polling  (Read 5594 times)
Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,329
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: January 07, 2008, 04:43:09 PM »

This is based on Clinton winning in 2008, and having a decent first term, with no major disasters, but nothing special happening either.

Logged
Alcon
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,867
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: January 07, 2008, 08:22:51 PM »

Looks a good deal like 2008 (although McCain might loosen a few states).  Tongue
Logged
Lief 🗽
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,876


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: January 07, 2008, 08:38:22 PM »

By 2012, Obama has brought the troops home from Iraq, passed Universal Healthcare and a major energy independence initiative, and has dealt successfully with the recession in 2008. Going into 2012 against some random Republican, his approval rating hovers around 60%.

Logged
Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,329
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: January 07, 2008, 08:49:24 PM »

By 2012, Obama has brought the troops home from Iraq, passed Universal Healthcare and a major energy independence initiative, and has dealt successfully with the recession in 2008. Going into 2012 against some random Republican, his approval rating hovers around 60%.



I don't think GA, LA, or SD will be tossups in the near future.
Logged
Lief 🗽
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,876


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: January 07, 2008, 08:58:32 PM »

Well, not in a 50-50 election, but if Obama hypothetically wins re-election by 10-15 points, maybe.
Logged
reformer
Rookie
**
Posts: 59


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: January 09, 2008, 09:29:36 PM »

By 2012, Obama has brought the troops home from Iraq, passed Universal Healthcare and a major energy independence initiative, and has dealt successfully with the recession in 2008. Going into 2012 against some random Republican, his approval rating hovers around 60%.


Yes, and world hunger will have dissapeered, the middle east will just get along, and winged pork chops will be all the rage.

No president can pursue a strong agenda and retain that kind of popularit, not now adays anyway.
Logged
Hash
Hashemite
Moderators
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,401
Colombia


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: January 10, 2008, 08:06:07 AM »

By 2012, Obama has brought the troops home from Iraq, passed Universal Healthcare and a major energy independence initiative, and has dealt successfully with the recession in 2008. Going into 2012 against some random Republican, his approval rating hovers around 60%.



SD a tossup? I think you're being too hackish.
Logged
HappyWarrior
hannibal
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,058


Political Matrix
E: -3.87, S: -0.35

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: January 10, 2008, 09:29:36 AM »

President Barack Obama's approval rating hovers at 50%, sometimes dipping lower after beating McCain/Barbour in 2008 with what amounted to a campaign againest the Iraq War.  The War is just finishing after president Obama's plan to get out the troops takes longer than expected, three years in fact.  Universal health care under the Obama plan is just beginning to be implemented and Obama has taken out the Bush tax cuts.

Logged
Proud Paleoconservative
MacLinn
Rookie
**
Posts: 197


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: February 22, 2008, 12:18:59 AM »

Obama would be the new Jimmy Carter.
Logged
J. J.
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,892
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: February 22, 2008, 01:40:24 AM »


I have the distinct feeling whomever wins will be the next Jimmy Carter/Herbert Hoover.
Logged
Flying Dog
Jtfdem
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,404
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: February 23, 2008, 12:45:34 AM »

First it was Jesse Jackson, then it was Michael Dukakis, and now it's Jimmy Carter.

I doubt Obama will be like any of them.

I also doubt, however, that he will be a new John F Kennedy, Robert Kennedy, Teddy Roosevelt, or Franklin Roosevelt.

Obama, if he wins, will be his own President.
Logged
Cubby
Pim Fortuyn
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,067
Israel


Political Matrix
E: -3.74, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: February 23, 2008, 01:38:21 AM »

By 2012, Obama has brought the troops home from Iraq, passed Universal Healthcare and a major energy independence initiative, and has dealt successfully with the recession in 2008. Going into 2012 against some random Republican, his approval rating hovers around 60%.
SD a tossup? I think you're being too hackish.

South Dakota almost went to Bill Clinton in 1996. There was only a 3.5% difference (11,000 votes). If Obama wins by a large margin nationally, then its likely he could carry South Dakota.

The state's Native American population is growing faster than the state average (will be about 10% by 2012, up from 7% in 1990). They are heavily Democratic, as you can tell from any election map.
Logged
phk
phknrocket1k
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,906


Political Matrix
E: 1.42, S: -1.22

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: February 23, 2008, 04:32:41 AM »

By 2012, Obama has brought the troops home from Iraq, passed Universal Healthcare and a major energy independence initiative, and has dealt successfully with the recession in 2008. Going into 2012 against some random Republican, his approval rating hovers around 60%.
SD a tossup? I think you're being too hackish.

South Dakota almost went to Bill Clinton in 1996. There was only a 3.5% difference (11,000 votes). If Obama wins by a large margin nationally, then its likely he could carry South Dakota.

The state's Native American population is growing faster than the state average (will be about 10% by 2012, up from 7% in 1990). They are heavily Democratic, as you can tell from any election map.

Clinton did well in South Dakota because the Dakotas are full of the type of people who liked him personally (at least until Monica), but couldn't vote for a pro-choice candidate for president also not to discount the Perot factor. 

Too many single issue voters in those areas. He over performed amongst White South Dakotans.

Logged
Adlai Stevenson
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,403
United Kingdom


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: February 23, 2008, 06:58:26 AM »


I have the distinct feeling whomever wins will be the next Jimmy Carter/Herbert Hoover.

Bush is a two-term Herbert Hoover, and you know who succeeded Hoover, don'tcha?
Logged
Fmr. Pres. Duke
AHDuke99
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 24,021


Political Matrix
E: -1.94, S: -3.13

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: February 23, 2008, 02:39:49 PM »

President Barack Obama's approval rating hovers at 50%, sometimes dipping lower after beating McCain/Barbour in 2008 with what amounted to a campaign againest the Iraq War.  The War is just finishing after president Obama's plan to get out the troops takes longer than expected, three years in fact.  Universal health care under the Obama plan is just beginning to be implemented and Obama has taken out the Bush tax cuts.



Oh my God. Didn't you leave out ending world hunger, defeating Al-Qaeda through diplomacy, fixing immigration so that no illegal immigration ever occurs, running up a $100 billion surplus, presiding over the stock market crossing DOW 20,000, and raising real wages by 50%? I expect this will also  occur during the Obama first term, and the map will look like this:


Logged
Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,329
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: February 23, 2008, 02:48:53 PM »

This assumes an Obama victory:
Logged
Josh/Devilman88
josh4bush
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,079
Political Matrix
E: 3.61, S: -1.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: February 23, 2008, 03:11:24 PM »
« Edited: February 23, 2008, 03:18:55 PM by Josh22 »

If Obama wins and has a good term this is what the map will look like at the start.



If McCain win and has a good term this is what the map will look like at the start.

Logged
Frodo
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 24,509
United States


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: February 23, 2008, 05:01:27 PM »

If Obama wins the presidency this year, and does remarkably well during his first term, getting much of his agenda passed, and retains high job approval ratings by the time he runs for re-election, and the GOP nominates a southern conservative governor or former governor, the map would look a lot like like this:



Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.049 seconds with 12 queries.