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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: Virginiá)
  2012 Elecotral vote changes favor GOP
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Author Topic: 2012 Elecotral vote changes favor GOP  (Read 4035 times)
zorkpolitics
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« on: January 06, 2008, 08:31:55 pm »

According to Polidata, based on today's population trends, the post 2010 census is expected to shift a net 8 EV from Kerry states to Bush states, and presumably would favor future Republican candidates. 

A Republican could win even if they lost all the Kerry states plus OH, as long as they won two of the three Bush states:  NV, IA, NM

See:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080105/ap_on_go_co/congressional_seats_glance;_ylt=ArFOElsaKS5U48QIxquNQhqyFz4D
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ottermax
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« Reply #1 on: January 06, 2008, 08:59:30 pm »

However the liberals have been migrating to the red states. Liberals won't just disappear!
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SamInTheSouth
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« Reply #2 on: January 06, 2008, 10:14:38 pm »

That's very true and that may switch some of these states to swing or blue status, in terms of presidential races, depending on the number of those on the left who move there.  However, this will provide a big boost to the Republicans in the House and may very well allow them to take it back in 2012.  The states that have Republican legislatures will have Republicans redrawing the districts and they will naturally draw them to favor the Republican party.  This is why we need independent commissions to draw Congressional districts so that neither party can choose who their voters will be.  It should be the voters choosing them.
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muon2
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« Reply #3 on: January 06, 2008, 11:05:57 pm »

As I've noted before on the Demographics board, Polidata weights the most recent data more heavily than I would. This leads them to be more prone to statistical fluctuations. For instance, using the same data as Polidata, I get no increase in SC or NC, and no loss in CA or MN. SC and MN are definitely on the bubble for change, CA could easily go up one or down one, and NC has an outside chance. I'd trust more years at a particular rate of change to make an estimate.
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ottermax
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« Reply #4 on: January 06, 2008, 11:21:24 pm »

That's very true and that may switch some of these states to swing or blue status, in terms of presidential races, depending on the number of those on the left who move there.  However, this will provide a big boost to the Republicans in the House and may very well allow them to take it back in 2012.  The states that have Republican legislatures will have Republicans redrawing the districts and they will naturally draw them to favor the Republican party.  This is why we need independent commissions to draw Congressional districts so that neither party can choose who their voters will be.  It should be the voters choosing them.

You're very right about independent Congressional districts. I'm tired of gerrymandering. I don't know how pro-GOP people will be feeling in 2012. In 4 years politics could change drastically (hey, nobody expected an Illinois state legislator to be a presidential frontrunner!)
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auburntiger
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« Reply #5 on: January 07, 2008, 03:47:40 am »

According to Polidata, based on today's population trends, the post 2010 census is expected to shift a net 8 EV from Kerry states to Bush states, and presumably would favor future Republican candidates. 

A Republican could win even if they lost all the Kerry states plus OH, as long as they won two of the three Bush states:  NV, IA, NM

See:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080105/ap_on_go_co/congressional_seats_glance;_ylt=ArFOElsaKS5U48QIxquNQhqyFz4D

In four years, VA and NV will most likely be more Democrat than Ohio. States such as WV, NH, VA, NV, CO where there has been a fundamental shift in partisan trends is likely to continue at a faster rate than states like NM, IA, OH which have been considered swing states for some time now.
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