Will Giuliani's Feb 5 + Florida strategy work?

[Padfoot]

I really don't think Giuliani has a viable strategy at this point.  There is a strong possibility that he could finish 4th or worse in all the contests before Florida which IMO would severely damage his chances and actually allow McCain to re-enter the top-tier and get ahead of him.  With everyone talking about Huckabee and Romney (and potentially McCain) going into Florida and Super Tuesday I highly doubt Giuliani is going to be able to salvage anything.  Huckabee will sweep the South with perhaps the exception of Florida and he'll probably do well in the corn belt; Romney will win Utah and probably Massachusetts and he'll likely do well in the West and Northeast depending on how strong McCain is, McCain will at least win Arizona and if he's still considered in it he might win some other states as well.  That leaves Rudy with New York, New Jersey, and maybe Connecticut.  There's no way he'll have enough delegates to win the convention.  Depending on how things pan out after that he might have enough to influence the convention outcome but his chances of receiving the nomination himself will be shot.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

He's screwed himself into a corner.

It's too late to move for IA, and his pulling resources OUT of the NH!

If I were his campaign manager, I'd have him fitted with a shock collar, everytime he leaves NH he gets 25,000 V.

This is where his ball game is. McCain is sucking up his people in NH and FL. As I said in another thread, Huckabee is now playing far too well in the south for the mass win he was expecting out of FL and F5.

If he survives NH, I'd send him to FL, TX, NY, NJ, CT and CA. Spend as much money as possible. Because if it works, the momentum will build and the money will flow in. If it doesn't, it's over.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Of course not. Giuliani has conceded Florida to the Huckaboom and John McCain who is gaining in the polls. His only chances of winning a primary or two is in New York, Connecticut and New Jersey and possibly California. Even if he does win those states he won't have enough delegates to win the GOP nomination. He should give up now, before he embrasses himself.

[Meeker]

It all depends on how much star power he actually has. His campaign is banking that he'll have enough to overcome those losses, and I think to some extent it's not a terrible plan considering the situation they're in. However, I doubt it'll work.

But if it does somehow, I guess wouldn't be that surprised. I don't really know how much star power Rudy has. Guess we'll find out in 30 days.

[Gustaf]

given recent polls in feb 5 states and fl, no.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

Once Hillary gets back on her feet, I'm sure that Rudy will as well.

[Mr. Morden]

I don't understand why he would use a Feb 5 + Florida strategy rather than a Feb 5 + Florida + Michigan strategy.  I mean, yes, the last couple of polls of MI seem to show Giuliani falling a bit behind Huckabee and Romney there, but he's in much better shape there than he is in IA & NH.  Plus, Giuliani and Romney are really the only candidates with the $ to blanket MI's airwaves with TV ads.

But it's not just Giuliani.  All the GOP candidates (and the media) seem to overlook MI quite frequently.  You sometimes even hear some journalists mistakenly say that MI comes after SC.

[gorkay]

Since it's not really a "strategy" that he's espoused from the beginning but rather something that's been largely forced on him by his waning support, I would say no.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Once Hillary gets back on her feet, I'm sure that Rudy will as well.

The difference is that Clinton is the kind of person who wins the Democratic nomination, moderate on economic and military issues (to suggest that she's right on those issues is hysteria to the extreme) and left of social issues. Giuliani was never, ever a good fit for the Rep primary/caucus voters. His numbers were inflated by his name recognition and lack of decent alternatives. He knew that, and hoped that he could get an early win, or that there would be a massive squabble in the early states allowing him to coast in and steamroll on Feb 5, after a big FL win. Well... his strategy is screwed now.

[HardRCafé]

Huckaboom

Do you realize how ridiculous you sound saying that?

[Padfoot]

Huckaboom

Do you realize how ridiculous you sound saying that?

Don't hate on the Huckaboom man.  Its not any worse than Obamania but I suppose thats not saying much either.

[Erc]

Should, somehow, everybody but Thompson be still in the race as of February 5th, it's not horrible.  That said, I'm not sure how 'in the race' he'll be if he loses everything before then, either.

In a way, I look forward to a Giuliani crash...then my vote in the NY primary may actually be of consequence.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

If he wins Florida then maybe. It would be nice to have a W under his belt. If he loses Florida, he might as well drop out. If he stays in, he can only hope to carry NY, NJ, CA, and Conn and then have a broken GOP convention.

[Mr. Morden]

If he wins Florida then maybe. It would be nice to have a W under his belt. If he loses Florida, he might as well drop out. If he stays in, he can only hope to carry NY, NJ, CA, and Conn and then have a broken GOP convention.

If he doesn't win *anything* in January (not even Florida), then I can't see him winning CA.  His lead isn't *that* big in CA.  He could definitely lose it if he gets crushed in all the January primaries.  He'd probably only end up winning NY/NJ/CT.....maybe DE as well, though probably not even that.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

If he wins Florida then maybe. It would be nice to have a W under his belt. If he loses Florida, he might as well drop out. If he stays in, he can only hope to carry NY, NJ, CA, and Conn and then have a broken GOP convention.

If he doesn't win *anything* in January (not even Florida), then I can't see him winning CA.  His lead isn't *that* big in CA.  He could definitely lose it if he gets crushed in all the January primaries.  He'd probably only end up winning NY/NJ/CT.....maybe DE as well, though probably not even that.

That's true. I am having a hard time seeing Californians voting for a Baptist preacher, though.

If he does lose  Florida, then I agree, he's toast.

[Mr. Morden]

That's true. I am having a hard time seeing Californians voting for a Baptist preacher, though.

Well, if Huckabee and Romney are the only candidates left standing by Feb. 5th, it could easily go to Romney.