How will things look in 2012?

[tmthforu94]

(All the maps below are done considering the economy has improved little, we are still in Iraq and have a presence in the middle east, and unemployment rate is still high. Overall, Obama underperformed, only garnering a 38-40% approval rating, meaning the election is a toss-up) The economy is the most important issue for over 65% of Americans.
No toss-up states
(Agree with pbrower2a, that in a battle between Obama and Huckabee, both Utah and Idaho would be close states. Huckabee would still win, but by less than 5%.

Obama vs. Romney:

Obama vs. Huckabee:

Obama vs. Palin:

Obama vs. Jindal:

Obama vs. Thune:

[Devilman88]

(All the maps below are done considering the economy has improved little, we are still in Iraq and have a presence in the middle east, and unemployment rate is still high. Overall, Obama underperformed, only garnering a 38-40% approval rating, meaning the election is a toss-up) The economy is the most important issue for over 65% of Americans.
No toss-up states
(Agree with pbrower2a, that in a battle between Obama and Huckabee, both Utah and Idaho would be close states. Huckabee would still win, but by less than 5%.

Obama vs. Romney:

Obama vs. Huckabee:

Obama vs. Palin:

Obama vs. Jindal:

Obama vs. Thune:

Huckabee would kill Obama in UT and ID, and if you think any different then you really need to get your brain checked. Also Romney would be destroyed by Obama.

[tmthforu94]

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Huckabee has made several rude remarks towards the Mormon religion, which has offended a lot of Mormons. I'm extremely conservative (see PM score), but I will either vote for Obama or vote third party in 2012, depending on how Obama finishes his first term. But I won't vote for Huckabee. All because of the comments he made.
If you look at the "situation", the economy was the most important issue to over 65% of Americans. Romney would win under that scenario.

[Frodo]

Obama/Biden: 391 EV
Romney/Sanford: 147 EV

[RIP Robert H Bork]

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Huckabee has made several rude remarks towards the Mormon religion, which has offended a lot of Mormons. I'm extremely conservative (see PM score), but I will either vote for Obama or vote third party in 2012, depending on how Obama finishes his first term. But I won't vote for Huckabee. All because of the comments he made.
If you look at the "situation", the economy was the most important issue to over 65% of Americans. Romney would win under that scenario.

Are you a Mormon?

[tmthforu94]

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Huckabee has made several rude remarks towards the Mormon religion, which has offended a lot of Mormons. I'm extremely conservative (see PM score), but I will either vote for Obama or vote third party in 2012, depending on how Obama finishes his first term. But I won't vote for Huckabee. All because of the comments he made.
If you look at the "situation", the economy was the most important issue to over 65% of Americans. Romney would win under that scenario.

Are you a Mormon?

I am a Christian. Mormonism is just a part of the Christian Religion, like Methodist and Baptist.

[RIP Robert H Bork]

Huckabee would kill Obama in UT and ID, and if you think any different then you really need to get your brain checked. Also Romney would be destroyed by Obama.

Agreed, and I would say the same for pbrower2a.

Then again, I would not take the maps of either seriously in the first place.

[RIP Robert H Bork]

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Huckabee has made several rude remarks towards the Mormon religion, which has offended a lot of Mormons. I'm extremely conservative (see PM score), but I will either vote for Obama or vote third party in 2012, depending on how Obama finishes his first term. But I won't vote for Huckabee. All because of the comments he made.
If you look at the "situation", the economy was the most important issue to over 65% of Americans. Romney would win under that scenario.

Are you a Mormon?

I am a Christian. Mormonism is just a part of the Christian Religion, like Methodist and Baptist.

But, are you a Christian and a member of the Mormon denomination?

[tmthforu94]

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Huckabee has made several rude remarks towards the Mormon religion, which has offended a lot of Mormons. I'm extremely conservative (see PM score), but I will either vote for Obama or vote third party in 2012, depending on how Obama finishes his first term. But I won't vote for Huckabee. All because of the comments he made.
If you look at the "situation", the economy was the most important issue to over 65% of Americans. Romney would win under that scenario.

Are you a Mormon?

I am a Christian. Mormonism is just a part of the Christian Religion, like Methodist and Baptist.

But, are you a Christian and a member of the Mormon denomination?

I'm a Christian. That's what is important. I beleive in Jesus.

[You kip if you want to...]

Huckabee would kill Obama in UT and ID

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[Devilman88]

Huckabee would kill Obama in UT and ID

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You are going to base real life off of a news story?

[Devilman88]

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Huckabee has made several rude remarks towards the Mormon religion, which has offended a lot of Mormons. I'm extremely conservative (see PM score), but I will either vote for Obama or vote third party in 2012, depending on how Obama finishes his first term. But I won't vote for Huckabee. All because of the comments he made.
If you look at the "situation", the economy was the most important issue to over 65% of Americans. Romney would win under that scenario.

Are you a Mormon?

I am a Christian. Mormonism is just a part of the Christian Religion, like Methodist and Baptist.

But, are you a Christian and a member of the Mormon denomination?

The fact is most non-Mormon Christians wouldn't vote for a Mormon, or that is what I hear from other Christians.

[tmthforu94]

My Dad is a Methodist pastor, and he supports Romney...
He didn't at first. We argued a lot in the beginning, since I was a Romney supporter. I had an automatic bias towards Romney, since he was a Mormon, so the second he announced he was running for President, I was a supporter, and my goal was to get everyone in my family to vote for him. The only person I couldn't convince was one of my brothers. If you just talk to them about Mormonism, and how Mormons aren't bad, most evangelicals would vote for a Mormon. Many though, sadly, just go off what they hear about Mormons.

[RIP Robert H Bork]

(Agree with pbrower2a, that in a battle between Obama and Huckabee, both Utah and Idaho would be close states. Huckabee would still win, but by less than 5%.

Mormons are not voters who cast their ballots only depending on who likes the LDS church the best. Even if they do dislike Huckabee, that does not make ID or UT competitive in any way. I might see some Utah voters going for a third party (though not enough to make the state competitve), but for Obama, based only on how the candidates view Mormons? No.

[pbrower2a]

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Huckabee has made several rude remarks towards the Mormon religion, which has offended a lot of Mormons. I'm extremely conservative (see PM score), but I will either vote for Obama or vote third party in 2012, depending on how Obama finishes his first term. But I won't vote for Huckabee. All because of the comments he made.
If you look at the "situation", the economy was the most important issue to over 65% of Americans. Romney would win under that scenario.

The Obama campaign would surely re-hash those statements in negative ads directed at any places that have significant Mormon communities (Las Vegas, Phoenix, Boise, Twin Falls, and of course the extended Salt Lake City-Ogden-Provo TV market (which includes Utah in entirety). Anti-Mormon statements are no less offensive than are anti-Jewish statements.

Religious bigotry has no viable place in political discourse, and most Americans hold religious bigotry in contempt even if they have no ties to the religion against which some political hack demonstrates bigotry.

[pbrower2a]

Huckabee would kill Obama in UT and ID, and if you think any different then you really need to get your brain checked. Also Romney would be destroyed by Obama.

Agreed, and I would say the same for pbrower2a.

Then again, I would not take the maps of either seriously in the first place.

The maps that I just used are not so much predictions as they are models based on assumptions that could change wildly (and of course will) before November 2007. I have at least shown the consequences of some assumptions changing wildly. As different as some of them are, I cannot expect anyone to accept any one of them except as an illustration of 'style' of political realities of 2012. They are possibilities -- not likelihoods. Much will change by November 2012, and only in 2012 will most of us have any idea of who will face Obama in November.

[pbrower2a]

Here are some map models that I have posted elsewhere based on the difference in popularity between Obama and Huckabee, Palin, Romney, and Gingrich. I have chosen to figure that a third of the undecided won't vote for a Presidential candidate, that because all of the predictions show the undecided are more likely to be Republican-leaning than Democratic-leaning that they are more likely to break for the Republican, that the Favorite Son effect is worth 10-15%, and that where the Presidential candidates are from matters greatly.

This model does NOT allow for effects of any display of religious or cultural bigotry. The model shows Huckabee handily winning Utah and Idaho, states with large Mormon populations, but if the stories of anti-Mormon statements are genuine, then Obama might win Utah and Idaho by making a few campaign stops in Utah and Idaho in which he denounces religious bigotry and praises the LDS for promoting strong communities and strong families. (Flip side of the coin: if Obama made disparaging references to "crackers" and "rednecks", then he would likely have trouble in Florida, Virginia, Ohio, Indiana, and North Carolina (86 electoral votes in 2008) where large parts of the population would question whether such disparaging remarks implied them.

Religious bigotry is scummy, reckless, and inexcusable;  Americans dislike it in political debate.   

Translation into electoral maps:

Obama 49%, Huckabee 42%...

that's 9% undecided. Figure that (conservatively) one third of the undecided won't vote, and  that the rest of the undivided will split 60-40 for Huckabee, and Obama wins 54% of the vote.

 

With no significant change in voting patterns from 2008 aside from an increase in the margin of victory for Obama, a 1% nationwide increase in voting on behalf of Obama allows him to add MO and MT; AZ goes to Obama because the Favorite Son effect that won AZ for McCain won't be in effect. I make the adjustment for the Favorite Son effect by enhancing Huckabee victories in Arkansas, Louisiana, and Oklahoma. Nebraska of course splits its electoral votes.

Missouri goes to Obama; Huckabee couldn't win the state in the Republican primary in 2008 (McCain won it).


Obama 53%
Palin 41%

Make the same assumptions of the undecided as with Huckabee, and Obama wins 58.1% of the vote.

 

Palin loses what Huckabee loses as well as NE-01, the Dakotas, Georgia, and South Carolina; Texas becomes a bona fide swing state that my model says she holds..


Obama 50%
Romney 39%

Much the same assumptions apply for Romney, except that he throws a curveball into the model. He might do a little better than either Huckabee or Palin in Massachusetts and Michigan, but not enough to win either. The tricky aspect with Romney is that he has no obvious appeal in the South. As the first Mormon to win a nomination for President of the United States he might win 80% of the vote in Utah and 70% of the vote in Idaho, he still relinquishes 2.9% of the "undecided" vote and 56.7% of the rest, and Obama wins 59.6% of the popular vote:

.

Texas is the margin between a 410-EV landslide and an Eisenhower-scale landslide. It's iffy with Palin facing Obama (the model does not allow for the rapid growth of the large Hispanic population. I try to keep the model conservative in its assumptions. Obama wins it against Romney.

The model shows an unambiguous landslide for Obama against Romney as it doesn't for Palin, but it is worth noting that even this model, which shows a 7% shift for Obama, may be too generous for Romney, as even Alaska, Arkansas and Louisiana are getting close. Romney loses a bunch of states that Obama lost by margins up to 15%. Romney loses Kansas, but Nebraska still splits its electoral votes... and Romney takes NE-03 while losing the state at large.
 
In return for some amazing performances that are still losses or overwhelm the imagination while adding nothing to his victory totals, Romney loses a bunch of states that the John McCain won handily.   
 

Obama 52%
Gingrich 39%



With nearly 60% of the popular vote (59.5%), Obama picks off Alaska, Arkansas, and Louisiana while Gingrich still wins Alabama, Oklahoma, and maybe (should the Mormons see nothing wrong with his sleazy marital life) Utah, Wyoming, Idaho, and NE-03. He might make Georgia a little closer than does Palin or Romney (the model says that Huckabee wins Georgia) he still doesn't win it.

It's hard to believe that Gingrich would fare so badly as the model predicts, but even if it the model is conservative in its assumptions, one must recognizes Gingrich's weaknesses as a Presidential candidate:

1. He has never been elected statewide -- not to any State office, and not to the Senate.

2. He has few obvious ties to any State.

3. His personal life is sleazy.

4. He puts on intellectual airs, and he is even more blatant in that than is Obama!

5. Although he held a very high office (Speaker of the House) he did so a long time ago, and has since avoided elected office.  He has largely been ignored as a political figure for a long time.

The Republican Party is the anti-intellectual Party, and Gingrich would be knocked out early in the primaries.

Does anyone have similar polls on how Obama would do against Jindal or Thune?

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Conservatives don't care if one of their own is intellectual, they only care if someone on the other side is reasonably intelligent, because it brings out their own paranoia about the lofty liberals 'talking down' to them. They realize their own stupidy and refuse to feel shame.

[tmthforu94]

(Agree with pbrower2a, that in a battle between Obama and Huckabee, both Utah and Idaho would be close states. Huckabee would still win, but by less than 5%.

Mormons are not voters who cast their ballots only depending on who likes the LDS church the best. Even if they do dislike Huckabee, that does not make ID or UT competitive in any way. I might see some Utah voters going for a third party (though not enough to make the state competitve), but for Obama, based only on how the candidates view Mormons? No.

Okay, I don't know about you, so I'm just going to say you are a white Catholic...
If a candidate said "I don't like whites, and Catholicism is a horrible religion", would you vote for that candidate?

[pbrower2a]

(Agree with pbrower2a, that in a battle between Obama and Huckabee, both Utah and Idaho would be close states. Huckabee would still win, but by less than 5%.

Mormons are not voters who cast their ballots only depending on who likes the LDS church the best. Even if they do dislike Huckabee, that does not make ID or UT competitive in any way. I might see some Utah voters going for a third party (though not enough to make the state competitve), but for Obama, based only on how the candidates view Mormons? No.

Okay, I don't know about you, so I'm just going to say you are a white Catholic...
If a candidate said "I don't like whites, and Catholicism is a horrible religion", would you vote for that candidate?

I have a simple rule: we must have a high standard for President of the United States, one decidedly above average in political talent and morals. Nothing in the Constitution precludes  a crank, convicted criminal, a lunatic, a member of a destructive cult, an idiot, a drug addict, a pathological liar, a high-school drop-out, a tax cheat, or a bigot as it might preclude someone foreign-born. I just wouldn't vote for a crank, a convicted criminal, a lunatic, a member of a destructive cult, an idiot, a drug addict, a pathological liar, a high-school drop-out, a tax cheat, or a bigot. One might be obliged to tolerate such persons in certain aspects of life, but certainly not in the highest levels of leadership.

Anyone who expresses religious bigotry or anti-religious bigotry in public life is wholly unfit to be President of the United States. Such shows sub-standard wisdom.

Think about this: the President of the United States is the Commander in Chief, the #1 enforcer of law, and #1 Diplomat. The Armed Services do not recruit military officers from random selection of young adults. The FBI carefully vets potential Special Agents. Getting into the Diplomatic Corps isn't easy. Positions with above-average responsibilities require people of above-average talent and ethical reliability.

If some politician makes statements derogatory to the Roman Catholic Church or to Roman Catholics, then that person has discredited himself to me.  I am not a Catholic.   

 

[tmthforu94]

Good post, pbrow.
It's rude. If Huckabee is ever president (God forbid), he won't be serving JUST his fanatical right-wing baptists. He'll be serving the normal part of America too, which includes Mormons. I don't know what he was thinking when he made all of those crude remarks, but he sure wasn't thinking straight.
It hurts even more when a candidate cuts your own religion.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Romney is the only Republican (in the running) that I would consider voting for, and only in a worst case scenario for Obama. The reason is that I believe he is very intelligent and MAY have the ideas to fix the economy. But the jackass Republicans nominated McCain. I don't think Romney would have picked Palin.

[You kip if you want to...]

Romney is the only Republican (in the running) that I would consider voting for, and only in a worst case scenario for Obama. The reason is that I believe he is very intelligent and MAY have the ideas to fix the economy. But the jackass Republicans nominated McCain. I don't think Romney would have picked Palin.

I agree. And no, he wouldn't have picked Palin, he's surely have to pick a southerner. I'd also consider supporting Crist if Obama was doing badly.

[tmthforu94]

Governor Romney would have chosen either Governor Jindal or Senator Thune. There could have been a suprise, but I think he was planning on choosing a young, conservative, male.

[HAnnA MArin County]

With the Republican Party moving so far to the right and so many moderate Republicans (Arlen Specter ring a bell?) either leaving or being kicked out by the neoconservatives, it begs the question of what kind of Republican the GOP will nominate in 2008 to run against Obama. The economy is of the main concern. If the economy recovers, Republicans will be on the defensive because they have constantly and consistently been against Obama from Day 1 on the economy with the bailouts and economic stimulus bill. Their best case scenario would be for the economy to get worse (Obama fails, what the Rush Limbaugh crowd wants) and then to nominate a far right-wing conservative Republican like Bobby Jindal, Haley Barbour or Sarah Palin (God help us if either of them gets the nomination) who opposed accepting money from the stimulus bill for their own political gain. Expect them also to nominate someone with historical appeal to try to build on the excitement and significance of Obama's election as the first African American president (Jindal would be the first Indian president, Romney the first Mormon president, Palin the first female president which I would do everything in my power to prevent because she doesn't deserve that title like the current Secretary of State does). Regardless, I think they will nominate a conservative Republican. Ann Coulter, who I obviously disagree with but have respect for after she endorsed Hillary, I think said it best when she said that Republicans win when they nominate conservative Republicans, when they nominate moderate Republicans (Bob Dole, John McCain), they lose. I agree with this assessment, and since the party has moved so far to the right, I can almost guarantee that the nominee will be a conservative Republican who will represent everything opposite of Obama which is what the Republican Party seems to be, the party of NO.

If I had to pick right now, I'd say Jindal is who I think is leading the pact. Huckabee and Romney still have some baggage left from 2008, and Palin's star power is slowly but surely fading out. Because I'm new to the forum and don't know how to do all those fancy maps like everyone else on here, I'll just give an explanation of how I think the map would look in 2012 with an Obama-Jindal ticket regardless of Jindal's selection of VP and assuming that the economy recovers and Obama remains relatively popular (which is what I think will happen). Under these circumstances, I think Obama would carry all the states he carried in 2008 with the exception of Indiana. Indiana and North Carolina were the closest states that Obama carried in 2008, and with the demographic changes in North Carolina, I think North Carolina would be easier for Obama to win than Indiana. As for the tossups, I'd throw in Georgia but still give it to Jindal because of all the social conservatives in the rural predominantly white parts of the state that overpowers Atlanta and all the other cities. I think Indiana would be the only Obama state in 2008 that would flip back to the red/Jindal column in 2012. I just think Indiana in 2008 was a fluke phenomenon. Now, as for the McCain states in 2008 to flip to Obama, I think there will be three: Missouri (McCain just narrowly won by 0.14 percent), Arizona (minus John McCain/favorite son on the ticket, it is becoming a battleground state with the booming Hispanic population), and Montana (another really close state, why I don't know but they seem to love Obama up there). He may make another run at winning the Dakotas, but I think they will stay red.

Just my own personal assessment. Please feel free to refute; I love constructive criticism.