1968: No American Involvement in Vietnam

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Suppose the Americans never get involved in the Vietnamese Civil War. Thus, no American troops are sent and deaths of 58, 209 people never occur during the War.

With no American involvement in the Vietnam War, how would the 1968 Presidential Election turn out? Would President Johnson have gone for a second term as President of the United States? Is Richard Nixon still the Republican Nominee or does Governor Romney win it?

Discuss.

[Хahar 🤔]

Johnson/Romney
The Mormon issue hurts Romney big-time.

Johnson: 278
Romney: 171
Wallace: 89

[Verily]

Johnson/Romney
The Mormon issue hurts Romney big-time.

Johnson: 278
Romney: 171
Wallace: 89

Romney would win his home state, Michigan, and possibly Ohio as well, but I think Johnson would win California, New Mexico, Missouri and Colorado, so Johnson still wins outright.

[Verily]

Here's my guess:

Johnson: 273
Romney: 185
Wallace: 80

[True Democrat]

328-133-77

[Хahar 🤔]

328-133-77

Who are the nominees?

[True Democrat]

328-133-77

Who are the nominees?

Johnson, Romney, and Wallace

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Without Vietnam, I think LBJ would still be pretty popular.  There would be some backlash against the Civil Rights movement, but he would win with a sizable majority.

He beats Romney and Wallace 347-114-77

[Robespierre's Jaw]

So this Election would be between President Lyndon B. Johnson and Governor George Romney. Who does LBJ and Romney select to be their running mates? Does LBJ stick with HHH or opt to go with somebody different? And who does George Romney select to be his?

[Robespierre's Jaw]

President Johnson would keep the loyal Vice President Hubert Humphrey of Minnesota as his running mate in this scenario.

In my mind, Governor Romney would need somebody with Senate experience to balance the ticket. So he would select Senator Mark O. Hatfield of Oregon to be his running mate. Here's the map of how I think this election would have turned out like:

Lyndon B. Johnson/Hubert H. Humphrey (D): 308 EV
George W. Romney/Mark O. Hatfield (R): 153 EV
George C. Wallace/Curtis E. LeMay (AI): 77 EV

[Хahar 🤔]

President Johnson would keep the loyal Vice President Hubert Humphrey of Minnesota as his running mate in this scenario.

In my mind, Governor Romney would need somebody with Senate experience to balance the ticket. So he would select Senator Mark O. Hatfield of Oregon to be his running mate. Here's the map of how I think this election would have turned out like:

Lyndon B. Johnson/Hubert H. Humphrey (D): 308 EV
George W. Romney/Mark O. Hatfield (R): 153 EV
George C. Wallace/Curtis E. LeMay (AI): 77 EV

I'm assuming you turned off popular vote percentages here?

[PBrunsel]

1964

The Gulf on Tonkin Resolution is never introduced, so the 1964 Election is much closer, but still a comfortable win for President Johnson. The main reason such an act passed was for President Johnson to appear just as anti-Communist as Senator Goldwater. Without the resolution, Goldwater’s charges of Johnson being weak on communism stick better, and the fall of Saigon in October 1964 gives Goldwater a small boost, but not enough to make the election remotely close.

Lyndon Johnson/Hubert Humphrey (D): 436 EV; 59.8% of the PV
Barry Goldwater/William Miller (R): 102 EV; 40.1% of the PV
Others (Socialist Workers, Prohibition, etc.): 0 EV; 0.1% of the PV

Johnson Administration (1965-1973)

Lyndon Baines Johnson is sworn in on January 20th, 1965, and begins to usher in his Great Society. In what is seen as the golden era of liberalism, Johnson is able to pass expanded student aide, job protection for pregnant women, repeal of Taft-Hartley, expansion of the civil rights act to undocumented workers, and even limited government health insurance for Americans who make less than $25,000 a year (or as Vice-President Humphrey calls them “The working poor.”) In Southeast Asia, the “domino theory” occurs in a small way, as Laos and Cambodia also becomes Communist. However, the extent that President Truman and Secretary Acheson described is not achieved.

In 1966, resurgent Republicans are able to capitalize on “Tax-and-Spend Lyndon” to pick up a few seats in Congress and the Senate, but the houses are still in solid Democratic control. In California, actor Ronald Reagan narrowly defeats Governor Pat Brown. Reagan was accused of race baiting during the negative campaign when he tied Brown to the illegal immigrants who work the grape yards of California. Reagan would emerge as the leading voice of opposition to illegal immigration in the nation.

By 1968, the country was fat and happy. John Denver’s “Born on the Fourth of July” celebrated the nation’s dedication to equality and prosperity for all. College campuses were peaceful, except for the benefit concerts for free healthcare facilities that many of them provided. With the world and nation in a general peace, President Johnson could look forward to the 1968 campaign with expectations of victory. The political campaign season was to be boring for the Democrats. Senators Eugene McCarthy (D-MN), Robert Kennedy (D-NY), and George Smathers (D-FL) all endorsed President Johnson for reelection. Firebrand populist Governor George Wallace (D-AL) was to be the real wildcard in the mix. The greatest crisis facing the nation in 1968 was the rise of crime and racial tensions (especially since the murder of Dr. King in April 1968). Wallace hoped to oppose Johnson as a “Law and Order Democrat”, but when internal polling revealed he trailed him in South Carolina’s primary, Wallace decided to seek the Oval Office as the American Independent candidate. He would select General Curtis “Old Ironpants” LeMay as his running-mate. The Republicans faced a serious competition for their nomination. Governors George Romney (R-MI), Nelson Rockefeller (R-NY), William Scranton (R-PA) and Ronald Reagan (R-CA) battled it out in the primaries. Reagan was endorsed by Senator Goldwater, and swept most of the west, while Romney and Scranton battled it out for the Midwest and East. By the GOP Convention in June 1968, no one was sure of whom the nominee would be.

 Former Vice-President Richard Nixon failed to catch on as a candidate, and retired completely from public life. He would later serve as President of Duke University and as a senior fellow for the Cato Institute. His books of foreign policy (especially The World We Face, co-authored with Henry Kissinger) would become New York Times bestsellers. On April 25th, 2004, he would die while on vacation in Palm Springs at the age of 91.

After a brutal ballot fight, Governor Scranton overtook Romney, Reagan, and Rockefeller to win the GOP nomination. To appease Reagan’s conservatives, he selected Indiana Representative Richard Roudebush for Vice-President. The peaceful Democratic Convention in Chicago renominated President Johnson and Vice-President Humphrey by acclamation. “In 1964 I asked the American people for a mandate to begin,” President Johnson tells the cheering crowd, “Today I ask for a mandate to continue!” The election is all Lyndon Johnson. Scranton attacks Johnson for “extravagant government spending”, but his own record in Harrisburg is not that great when it comes to taxation. Representative Roudebush gives some life to the GOP campaign by consistently attacking Johnson for, “Selling out the sons of liberty in Southeast Asia.” He and Governor Ronald Reagan tour the west attacking Johnson as, “Squishy soft on Communism.” Governor Wallace does this as well, as he also warns the people of America that a second term of LBJ would lead to, “Illegal Mexicans runnin’ rampant, takin’ your jobs and killin’ by the bushel.” These attacks help make the race more exciting, but generally do not affect the final outcome of the race.

Lyndon Johnson/Hubert Humphrey (D): 322 EV; 45.3% of the PV
William Scranton/Richard Roudebush (R): 125 EV; 32.9% of the PV
George Wallace/Curtis LeMay (AI): 91 EV; 21.7% of the PV
Others (Peace and Freedom, etc.): 0 EV; 0.1% of the PV

The Democrats maintain control of Congress, with Wayne Morse winning reelection in Oregon. Another notable victor is Bob Dole, elected to the Senate in Kansas.

[gorkay]

LBJ would have run again, with Humphrey as his running mate. The other big Democratic guns would have sat it out and waited for 1972. With the Republican nomination looking less valuable, we might have had different candidates. If some of the bigger GOP guns had decided to take a pass and also wait for '72, this could create an opportunity for the potential candidates they scared off in real life. Maybe Charles Percy would have run, or Margaret Chase Smith, or even William Scranton. Perhaps Ronald Reagan would have tried a more aggressive nationwide campaign, and Rockefeller might have entered the race a lot earlier. It's far from certain that Romney would've won the nomination even if he had still run and stayed in the race... who's to say that he wouldn't have faltered on some other issue than Vietnam? If Nixon had run, I still think he would have been the front-runner. But if LBJ looked strong, he too might have waited for '72.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

PBrunsel that could turnout into a Great Timeline. Maybe you should consider it, once you finish your Fluke of the God's TL.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

PBrunsel that could turnout into a Great Timeline. Maybe you should consider it, once you finish your Fluke of the God's TL.