Northern Ireland General Discussion

[CumbrianLefty]

Especially given what has happened with Foster, will Donaldson being ex-UUP help or hinder him?

[CumbrianLefty]

It appears Foster is going to both stand down from the Assembly and leave the DUP after quitting as leader.  (BBC story.)  "No longer the party she joined", apparently.

If she means the DUP has become *more* backward and bigoted, that's a bit sobering.

[CumbrianLefty]

Ah, the "sorry no more members, we're full up" approach that some Labour old-timers will recall.

[CumbrianLefty]

Jeffrey Donaldson MP enters the DUP leadership contest.

As the article says, though, Poots's campaign claim he already has the votes to win.

In the event, it was close. Poots has his work cut out in several ways.

[CumbrianLefty]

That's an almost existentially bad poll for Poots.

WTF did the DUP grandees think they were doing picking him ahead of Donaldson?

[CumbrianLefty]

I will believe the mass rallies in his support when I see them

[CumbrianLefty]

Lasted a couple of days longer than Diane James did as UKIP leader.

[CumbrianLefty]

One of the other DUPers standing for the Westminster vacancy is of course an obvious next step.

[CumbrianLefty]

https://twitter.com/NextIrishGE/status/1431508490791657473?s=19

The figures are not the important thing - but the broader trend of the unionists splintering or the divides within unionism widening might be worth noting. The other argument and perhaps the greater cause of these figures is that it's just the ramifications of the DUP's internal woes. Of course the figures are actually not bad for unionists.

Why are TUV polling so high? Weren’t they a single issue party for paramilitary prisoners?

I think you are actually referring to the (now defunct) Ulster Democratic Party there.

TUV is more a vehicle for those who see the modern DUP as betraying the "true flame" of Paisleyism.

[CumbrianLefty]

Obstructionism will only continue the DUP's long term decline, though.

[CumbrianLefty]

There will be that rhetoric during the leadership contest, yes.

The question is if they are actually prepared to be more pragmatic in office.

[CumbrianLefty]

Have to say that Sinn Fein have acquitted themselves notably well this past week.

[CumbrianLefty]

Truss was briefing before becoming PM that she would invoke Article 16 "within days".

I suppose other, uh, events have intervened there.

[CumbrianLefty]

Yes, you do wonder what on earth the point is of another election right now.

[CumbrianLefty]

Some might argue "same difference" there

[CumbrianLefty]

Historically the UUP at least did have a few Catholic members, but its fair to say they were generally regarded (by both sides) as somewhat eccentric.

[CumbrianLefty]

Mentioned by me in the elections section because I couldn't find this thread at the time - the local polls scheduled for next May have been moved back to the 18th of that month, to avoid clashing with the new monarch's coronation a fortnight earlier.

Which does also maybe increase the possibility of the mainland doing the same in that regard.

[CumbrianLefty]

The local election results in NI (including a few possible glitches in counting) are covered in the 2023 UK Local Elections thread in the International Elections section.

[CumbrianLefty]

I think it is now a fairly safe prediction that nothing will happen as far as restoring Stormont rule goes until the next Westminster election, which could still be nearly a year away.

[CumbrianLefty]

They should maybe be thinking about what happens when they become a definite minority instead.

[CumbrianLefty]

There was the brief "Chuckle Brothers" phase after Paisley went into government, though of course some of the DUP base didn't like that either.

That is what led to the formation of Traditional Unionist Voice in 2007.

[CumbrianLefty]

Let UUP represent the Unionist bloc - the fault is on the DUP here.

Apart from the UUP not being that popular anymore, they try to mini-me the DUP rather too much.

[CumbrianLefty]

Given the likely resignation of the Sinn Fein MP for Fermanagh and South Tyrone (she’s standing for the EU Parliament in Ireland), we could have quite an interesting race on our hands.

An NI by-election, in a Sinn Fein-UUP marginal? Could be fascinating, and a focal point for parties to lay out their case vis-a-vis Stormont.

If she doesn't actually give up the Westminster seat before being elected as an MEP, it must be pretty likely that it would remain vacant until a GE even if that is delayed to the end of 2024.

[CumbrianLefty]

There is talk that "this time, it might be different" - but I will believe it when I see it.

[CumbrianLefty]

Will hold my hands up and admit my scepticism about this happening now may have been in error