Northern Ireland General Discussion

[beesley]

https://twitter.com/SuzyJourno/status/1395997752916643843?s=19

Assembly elections are next year. The aggregated major unionist vote here is 41% compared to 37% for the Republicans, but last time a good chunk of SDLP and UUP voters put each other or Alliance as their second preference, partly at the urging of Mike Nesbitt.

[beesley]

https://twitter.com/SuzyJourno/status/1395997752916643843?s=19

Assembly elections are next year. The aggregated major unionist vote is 41% compared to 37% for the nationalists, but last time a good chunk of SDLP and UUP voters put each other or Alliance as their second preference, partly at the urging of Mike Nesbitt.

Did they? My understanding was that ‘vote Mike get Colum’ went down like a bucket of cold sick amongst the UUP faithful (who still remain broadly conservative - when polled in a study of the party done in 2019 a majority were well disposed to Jim Allister of all people).

It went down badly among the base and nobody took it seriously but it did happen to a significant enough degree to make a difference - have a look at Lagan Valley for example where the SDLP gained the seat. 

[beesley]

https://twitter.com/NextIrishGE/status/1431508490791657473?s=19

The figures are not the important thing - but the broader trend of the unionists splintering or the divides within unionism widening might be worth noting. The other argument and perhaps the greater cause of these figures is that it's just the ramifications of the DUP's internal woes. Of course the figures are actually not bad for unionists.

[beesley]

https://twitter.com/NextIrishGE/status/1431508490791657473?s=19

The figures are not the important thing - but the broader trend of the unionists splintering or the divides within unionism widening might be worth noting. The other argument and perhaps the greater cause of these figures is that it's just the ramifications of the DUP's internal woes. Of course the figures are actually not bad for unionists.

Why are TUV polling so high? Weren’t they a single issue party for paramilitary prisoners?

As Cumbrian Leftie described above, despite being the status quo, as with any extreme there is opportunity for a unionists protest vote.