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Author Topic: Northern Ireland General Discussion  (Read 41773 times)
Frodo
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« Reply #250 on: September 23, 2022, 05:24:17 PM »

The main, original justification for the partition of the island and the establishment of Northern Ireland as a member of the United Kingdom is now gone:

Northern Ireland census shows more Catholics than Protestants for the first time ever

Quote
The proportion of the resident population that is either Catholic or brought up Catholic is 45.7%, compared to 43.5% Protestant.

The previous census, in 2011, found that 45.1% of the population were Catholic or brought up Catholic. It found 48.4% were from a Protestant or other Christian background.

Census figures detailing the religious makeup of Northern Ireland were published by the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency Sept. 22.

Deirdre Heenan, professor of social policy at the University of Ulster, described the first census showing a Catholic majority as “monumental.”

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Conservatopia
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« Reply #251 on: September 24, 2022, 12:49:24 PM »

"English King"
"Reunification"
"Justification for partition"

Americans (especially the plastic paddies) are a cancer on this board.
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North Brabant Natlab Communists Revenge Tour
discovolante
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« Reply #252 on: September 24, 2022, 12:54:34 PM »

"English King"
"Reunification"
"Justification for partition"

Americans (especially the plastic paddies) are a cancer on this board.

I mean, you're the one whose signature shouts out Cromwell, so don't be such a glass cannon.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #253 on: September 24, 2022, 11:40:47 PM »

Where do the TUV and ALL parties fall on the unionist-nationalist spectrum?

"ALL" is Alliance, so neither Unionist with a big U nor Nationalist with a big N, but their voters would presumably break for the status quo in a border poll.  The Greens are also neither Unionist nor Nationalist.

Seven years ago that would have been true but Brexit has undermined a lot of previous assumptions. One of the defining features of Alliance support is being pro-EU and what polling we've seen suggests that a plurality of Alliance voters are now small-n nationalist.

Quote
"TUV" is Traditional Unionist Voice: people who think the DUP have gone soft.

TUV is Ulster Scots for Herstigte Nasionale Party.
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YL
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« Reply #254 on: September 25, 2022, 10:23:40 AM »

"ALL" is Alliance, so neither Unionist with a big U nor Nationalist with a big N, but their voters would presumably break for the status quo in a border poll.  The Greens are also neither Unionist nor Nationalist.

Seven years ago that would have been true but Brexit has undermined a lot of previous assumptions. One of the defining features of Alliance support is being pro-EU and what polling we've seen suggests that a plurality of Alliance voters are now small-n nationalist.

Indeed, things have changed; I'm still a bit sceptical that if it actually came to a border poll Alliance voters would break for re-unification, but it's no longer a crazy thought.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #255 on: September 25, 2022, 11:02:04 AM »

It is worth remembering that under the GFA a border poll can only be called if it is clear that the result would almost certainly be a change in the status quo. Of course exactly what the threshold is in terms of presumed public opinion is not really clear - it's unlikely that consistent leads would be enough, which then means a matter of gauging how large and how secure, and that would be a judgement call on the part of the Secretary of State. The point, though, is that this really isn't like an ordinary hypothetical referendum, even if it often suits people to pretend otherwise (e.g. the DUPs rather pathetic attempts to claim, during this year's elections, that if they fell behind Sinn Fein in seats then a border poll would follow swiftly).
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #256 on: September 25, 2022, 11:05:00 AM »

Seven years ago that would have been true but Brexit has undermined a lot of previous assumptions. One of the defining features of Alliance support is being pro-EU and what polling we've seen suggests that a plurality of Alliance voters are now small-n nationalist.

Yeah, Brexit has upended things so much that we've moved from a situation where, frankly, even a Northern Ireland with a substantial but not overwhelming Catholic absolute majority would probably not actually vote for unification, to one where the longterm future is genuinely unclear. Backing it has been a spectacular own-goal even by the standards of the Unionist parties.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #257 on: September 25, 2022, 08:19:19 PM »
« Edited: September 25, 2022, 08:40:09 PM by ObserverIE »

Seven years ago that would have been true but Brexit has undermined a lot of previous assumptions. One of the defining features of Alliance support is being pro-EU and what polling we've seen suggests that a plurality of Alliance voters are now small-n nationalist.

Yeah, Brexit has upended things so much that we've moved from a situation where, frankly, even a Northern Ireland with a substantial but not overwhelming Catholic absolute majority would probably not actually vote for unification, to one where the longterm future is genuinely unclear. Backing it has been a spectacular own-goal even by the standards of the Unionist parties.

Having a series of governments in London who have been at best obsessed with a blinkered ideological nationalism over any attempt at competence and at worst actively malevolent has served to shift the balance as well. Apart from the brief interregnum of Julian Smith there have been a series of NI secretaries since at least 2010 who have been incompetent, dishonest, or both.

I would say that the long-term future is actually pretty clear because of the above factors as well as the fact that the demographic profile of the median voter in NI has changed and will continue to change. EU membership meant that the precise status of NI didn't matter that much for ordinary life; Brexit and the seemingly desperate attempt on the part of Westminster to maximize the differences between the UK and the EU 27 (and domestically having Frost and Truss playing footsie with the DUP and - even more poisonously - "Loyalist community leaders" who everyone knows are paramilitaries and drug-gangs) has made that impossible. Labour in power may stop aggravating the situation but they're unlikely to be able to undo the damage.
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Frodo
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« Reply #258 on: September 26, 2022, 12:28:12 AM »

The new Prime Minister Liz Truss is trying to undo the damage her predecessor, Boris Johnson, left behind with regard to Northern Ireland:

Britain still seeking negotiated solution with EU on Northern Ireland - PM Truss
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #259 on: September 26, 2022, 05:49:28 AM »

Truss was briefing before becoming PM that she would invoke Article 16 "within days".

I suppose other, uh, events have intervened there.
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #260 on: September 26, 2022, 09:22:15 AM »

The census figures are somewhat misleading, because it's the proportion from a Catholic or Protestant community background - i.e. which community they were brought up in. It doesn't tell you who actually strongly identifies with that community, and who is distrustful of the other side due to a lack of interaction with them but doesn't trust the leaders of their community either. The neithers are almost certainly a plurality and are certainly increasing rapidly. The fact that it is very difficult to openly renounce your community identity means that the salience of that has been limited, but if that changes then a lot is likely to change quite quickly.
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