Northern Ireland General Discussion

[EastAnglianLefty]

As predicted, the talks yesterday seem to have been unproductive: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-politics-67957520

Somewhat more surprisingly, the head of the NI Civil Service has gone public with a call for Heaton-Harris to release the funds for wage increases without conditions.

Current predictions are that about 170,000 workers will be out on strike on Thursday, which is very nearly 10% of the total population and more than 20% of adults with a job.

[LabourJersey]

As predicted, the talks yesterday seem to have been unproductive: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-politics-67957520

Somewhat more surprisingly, the head of the NI Civil Service has gone public with a call for Heaton-Harris to release the funds for wage increases without conditions.

Current predictions are that about 170,000 workers will be out on strike on Thursday, which is very nearly 10% of the total population and more than 20% of adults with a job.

Wow - I knew civil service comprises an unusually high % of Northern Irish workers, but 20% is something.

Is there a sense that this could be a long and ugly strike? Or is it seen as more of a shorter expression of exasperation from the NI people?

[EastAnglianLefty]

It's not just the civil servants, it's also bus and train drivers, teachers, most NHS workers and plenty of others besides - very nearly the entirety of the public sector. There's some more detail here: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-67980892

This particular strike is only (for most unions) a 24-hour action, what's significant about it is that whereas previously different unions have taken action on different days, here they've co-ordinated it. Certainly given that there's no likelihood of Stormont returning imminently and the Westminster government shows no sign of willingness to take action itself, it's liable there will be further strikes over this issue, at least until such time that the union movement decides that Heaton-Harris definitely isn't budging and it's not worth their members' while to give up any more pay to send a signal that will be ignored.

[LabourJersey]

The DUP is now under particular pressure to return to power sharing - personally I doubt that will happen until the Westminster elections, but who knows.

It also seems (to my outsider, not-from-"Norn Iron" eyes) that the DUP base doesn't want them to return to power sharing because they don't want or like power sharing, period.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

It also seems (to my outsider, not-from-"Norn Iron" eyes) that the DUP base doesn't want them to return to power sharing because they don't want or like power sharing, period.

The historical majority doesn’t like sharing power and compromising with the political minority that they’ve suppressed for a century? You don’t say! The Unionists still haven’t left the mindset of the absolute assembly majority they lost in 2017.

[CumbrianLefty]

They should maybe be thinking about what happens when they become a definite minority instead.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

They should maybe be thinking about what happens when they become a definite minority instead.

In fairness every time the UUP has tried thinking about a minority future they’ve lost support going all the way back to Terence O'Neill.

[Frodo]

By this point, I view the Democratic Unionist Party (and other unionist hardliners) with the same scorn and contempt I have for the Republican Party here at home.  Sore losers the lot of them:

N.Ireland to miss deadline to break political impasse

Now that they are losing their grip on power, is the DUP deliberately trying to shred the Good Friday Agreement? 

[LabourJersey]

By this point, I view the Democratic Unionist Party (and other unionist hardliners) with the same scorn and contempt I have for the Republican Party here at home.  Sore losers the lot of them:

N.Ireland to miss deadline to break political impasse

Now that they are losing their grip on power, is the DUP deliberately trying to shred the Good Friday Agreement? 

The DUP never liked the GFA in the first place - that's the problem. And their mentality has only hardened as Brexit created the Irish Sea Border (or whatever name Sunak is calling it now) and as SF became the largest party in the last Assembly election.

They represent a bloc of voters who aren't happy with the GFA and are scared about their future and their communities.

[Frodo]

By this point, I view the Democratic Unionist Party (and other unionist hardliners) with the same scorn and contempt I have for the Republican Party here at home.  Sore losers the lot of them:

N.Ireland to miss deadline to break political impasse

Now that they are losing their grip on power, is the DUP deliberately trying to shred the Good Friday Agreement?  

The DUP never liked the GFA in the first place - that's the problem. And their mentality has only hardened as Brexit created the Irish Sea Border (or whatever name Sunak is calling it now) and as SF became the largest party in the last Assembly election.

Which is ironic, since the DUP supported Brexit in the first place, fueling the rise of Sinn Fein in the process.  

They represent a bloc of voters who aren't happy with the GFA and are scared about their future and their communities.

It is a good thing then that most of those voters are aging hardline Protestants.  Time is their enemy, and once they pass on, it is only a matter of time before reunification with Ireland becomes feasible.  

If they are hoping that by creating chaos and making Northern Ireland ungovernable they bring in the direct intervention of the UK government to rule over them (like it has in the past, to be fair), it will be an unpleasant surprise to them if they find out that Westminster no longer has the desire to do so.    

[MaxQue]

By this point, I view the Democratic Unionist Party (and other unionist hardliners) with the same scorn and contempt I have for the Republican Party here at home.  Sore losers the lot of them:

N.Ireland to miss deadline to break political impasse

Now that they are losing their grip on power, is the DUP deliberately trying to shred the Good Friday Agreement? 

The DUP never liked the GFA in the first place - that's the problem. And their mentality has only hardened as Brexit created the Irish Sea Border (or whatever name Sunak is calling it now) and as SF became the largest party in the last Assembly election.

They represent a bloc of voters who aren't happy with the GFA and are scared about their future and their communities.

Let's be honest here. Their voters are not scared about the future, they are upset and furious that Catholics are not second-class citizens anymore.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

By this point, I view the Democratic Unionist Party (and other unionist hardliners) with the same scorn and contempt I have for the Republican Party here at home.  Sore losers the lot of them:

N.Ireland to miss deadline to break political impasse

Now that they are losing their grip on power, is the DUP deliberately trying to shred the Good Friday Agreement? 

The DUP never liked the GFA in the first place - that's the problem. And their mentality has only hardened as Brexit created the Irish Sea Border (or whatever name Sunak is calling it now) and as SF became the largest party in the last Assembly election.

They represent a bloc of voters who aren't happy with the GFA and are scared about their future and their communities.

To say the DUP “never liked” the Good Friday Agreement is a touch of understatement.

[YL]

There was the brief "Chuckle Brothers" phase after Paisley went into government, though of course some of the DUP base didn't like that either.

The rules need to be changed so that if a party with the right to nominate the FM/DFM refuses to do so the right is passed on to another party. That could be done so that it goes to the next largest party of their designation (thus giving the UUP the chance to show that there is a point to their continued existence) or it could be done so that the calculations are completely re-done ignoring the boycotting party, which I think would give the DFM position to Alliance.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

There was the brief "Chuckle Brothers" phase after Paisley went into government, though of course some of the DUP base didn't like that either.

The rules need to be changed so that if a party with the right to nominate the FM/DFM refuses to do so the right is passed on to another party. That could be done so that it goes to the next largest party of their designation (thus giving the UUP the chance to show that there is a point to their continued existence) or it could be done so that the calculations are completely re-done ignoring the boycotting party, which I think would give the DFM position to Alliance.

But that fundamentally defeats the purpose of power sharing. You wouldn’t have a government supported by both Unionists and Nationalists. Like it or not the UUP hasn’t represented the views of most Protestants for 20 years now. And we know from history what unionists do when they feel “unrepresented” in government.

[CumbrianLefty]

There was the brief "Chuckle Brothers" phase after Paisley went into government, though of course some of the DUP base didn't like that either.

That is what led to the formation of Traditional Unionist Voice in 2007.

[YL]

There was the brief "Chuckle Brothers" phase after Paisley went into government, though of course some of the DUP base didn't like that either.

The rules need to be changed so that if a party with the right to nominate the FM/DFM refuses to do so the right is passed on to another party. That could be done so that it goes to the next largest party of their designation (thus giving the UUP the chance to show that there is a point to their continued existence) or it could be done so that the calculations are completely re-done ignoring the boycotting party, which I think would give the DFM position to Alliance.

But that fundamentally defeats the purpose of power sharing. You wouldn’t have a government supported by both Unionists and Nationalists. Like it or not the UUP hasn’t represented the views of most Protestants for 20 years now. And we know from history what unionists do when they feel “unrepresented” in government.

I would argue that the purpose of power sharing is to ensure that NI can have devolved government without going back to the 1921-72 situation of it being completely dominated by one community. And you can do that without giving the DUP and Sinn Féin effective vetos on the formation of any executive at all. I don't mind giving the largest party in each community the right to be in an executive if it wants to be, but if they wish to say no to that then I don't think they should be able to stop anyone else doing the job.

There is an argument that with Unionism having lost its majority and Nationalism not particularly likely to gain one in the near future it might be possible to try having no rules at all other than requiring majority support in the Assembly. I'm not sure that NI is really ready for that, though.

[Oryxslayer]

By this point, I view the Democratic Unionist Party (and other unionist hardliners) with the same scorn and contempt I have for the Republican Party here at home.  Sore losers the lot of them:

N.Ireland to miss deadline to break political impasse

Now that they are losing their grip on power, is the DUP deliberately trying to shred the Good Friday Agreement?  

The DUP never liked the GFA in the first place - that's the problem. And their mentality has only hardened as Brexit created the Irish Sea Border (or whatever name Sunak is calling it now) and as SF became the largest party in the last Assembly election.

Which is ironic, since the DUP supported Brexit in the first place, fueling the rise of Sinn Fein in the process.  
  

I think it's important to note that the actual size of the nationalist camp of voters hasn't exactly changed. From 2011 -> 2016 -> 2017 -> 2022, the vote for Nationalist parties is ~42% -> ~38.5% -> ~42% -> ~41%. For just SF and the SDLP, we see 41% -> 36% -> 40% -> 38%.

What has changed is that the fragmentation of the former Unionist block, and a very small growth of SF at the expense of SDLP. The growing Alliance has mainly pulled in voters who once might have been characterized as those with Unionist backgrounds post-Brexit. There are many reasons for this but they all stem from the unavoidable recognition that London doesn't give a F about Northern Irelands problems, in this case caused by Brexit. At the same time we have parties further to the right of the DUP gaining votes, leading to further fragmentation and the DUP taking their present hardline stance, something that appears to have been successful given their vote share in the locals.

And that's the seeming long-term direction we are heading in, towards increasing fragmentation and a expanding Alliance. What has happened for the Unionists just now eventually will happen for the Nationalists, since they nominally at the moment occupy first place. IMO that's coming soon when SF forms a government in Dublin and proceeds to care about their voters and 21st century issues in their country rather than reunification. SF in the Republic hasn't gained votes cause of nationalism, it's in spite of it, since they are the only party perceived by some to have answers to questions like housing and welfare. Dublin hasn't given F about Northern Ireland's problems for just as long as London hasn't, but they are the less visible of the two. But that's just my hypothesis.

[LabourJersey]

There was the brief "Chuckle Brothers" phase after Paisley went into government, though of course some of the DUP base didn't like that either.

The rules need to be changed so that if a party with the right to nominate the FM/DFM refuses to do so the right is passed on to another party. That could be done so that it goes to the next largest party of their designation (thus giving the UUP the chance to show that there is a point to their continued existence) or it could be done so that the calculations are completely re-done ignoring the boycotting party, which I think would give the DFM position to Alliance.

But that fundamentally defeats the purpose of power sharing. You wouldn’t have a government supported by both Unionists and Nationalists. Like it or not the UUP hasn’t represented the views of most Protestants for 20 years now. And we know from history what unionists do when they feel “unrepresented” in government.

I would argue that the purpose of power sharing is to ensure that NI can have devolved government without going back to the 1921-72 situation of it being completely dominated by one community. And you can do that without giving the DUP and Sinn Féin effective vetos on the formation of any executive at all. I don't mind giving the largest party in each community the right to be in an executive if it wants to be, but if they wish to say no to that then I don't think they should be able to stop anyone else doing the job.

There is an argument that with Unionism having lost its majority and Nationalism not particularly likely to gain one in the near future it might be possible to try having no rules at all other than requiring majority support in the Assembly. I'm not sure that NI is really ready for that, though.

I agree with this. The point of a power-sharing government is to govern, after all.

The DUP doesn't want to govern. We can't let a place with 1.9 million people just exist without a meaningful government and administration.

Let UUP represent the Unionist bloc - the fault is on the DUP here.

[JimJamUK]

It’s worth noting that the DUP historically disliked direct rule, and would certainly do so in the current situation (the small amount we’ve had recently, the imposition of abortion and gay marriage rights, really pissed them off). If direct rule was properly imposed, then they would have a load of policies ‘forced’ on NI that they don’t like and wouldn’t be able to bring home the bacon to their voters, and frankly Westminster would probably run NI better than the civil service, or dare I say, Sinn Fein and the DUP.

[EastAnglianLefty]

The fundamental problem is that the Westminster government is shielding the DUP from the consequences of its decisions. There are lots of possible ways forward from here (some less terrible than others) but the only ones that actually change anything are the ones where decisions and consequences are linked.

[CumbrianLefty]

Let UUP represent the Unionist bloc - the fault is on the DUP here.

Apart from the UUP not being that popular anymore, they try to mini-me the DUP rather too much.

[Torrain]

Given the likely resignation of the Sinn Fein MP for Fermanagh and South Tyrone (she’s standing for the EU Parliament in Ireland), we could have quite an interesting race on our hands.

An NI by-election, in a Sinn Fein-UUP marginal? Could be fascinating, and a focal point for parties to lay out their case vis-a-vis Stormont.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Let UUP represent the Unionist bloc - the fault is on the DUP here.

Apart from the UUP not being that popular anymore, they try to mini-me the DUP rather too much.

Though some of that is encouraged by the way Holyrood functions. If it was possible to form an administration with the DUP boycotting, there would be a market for a unionist party that wants to keep things running (albeit not necessarily one larger than they now have, and certainly it wouldn't include some current UUP voters.) But as it isn't, they don't gain much from talking about compromise whilst not being able to show the benefits of it.

[CumbrianLefty]

Given the likely resignation of the Sinn Fein MP for Fermanagh and South Tyrone (she’s standing for the EU Parliament in Ireland), we could have quite an interesting race on our hands.

An NI by-election, in a Sinn Fein-UUP marginal? Could be fascinating, and a focal point for parties to lay out their case vis-a-vis Stormont.

If she doesn't actually give up the Westminster seat before being elected as an MEP, it must be pretty likely that it would remain vacant until a GE even if that is delayed to the end of 2024.

[Frodo]

Now they have a new deadline -February 8:

UK gives Northern Ireland a new deadline to revive its collapsed government as cost of living soars