Northern Ireland General Discussion

[Frodo]

The main, original justification for the partition of the island and the establishment of Northern Ireland as a member of the United Kingdom is now gone:

Northern Ireland census shows more Catholics than Protestants for the first time ever

The proportion of the resident population that is either Catholic or brought up Catholic is 45.7%, compared to 43.5% Protestant.

The previous census, in 2011, found that 45.1% of the population were Catholic or brought up Catholic. It found 48.4% were from a Protestant or other Christian background.

Census figures detailing the religious makeup of Northern Ireland were published by the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency Sept. 22.

Deirdre Heenan, professor of social policy at the University of Ulster, described the first census showing a Catholic majority as “monumental.”

[Conservatopia]

"English King"
"Reunification"
"Justification for partition"

Americans (especially the plastic paddies) are a cancer on this board.

[If my soul was made of stone]

"English King"
"Reunification"
"Justification for partition"

Americans (especially the plastic paddies) are a cancer on this board.

I mean, you're the one whose signature shouts out Cromwell, so don't be such a glass cannon.

[ObserverIE]

Where do the TUV and ALL parties fall on the unionist-nationalist spectrum?

"ALL" is Alliance, so neither Unionist with a big U nor Nationalist with a big N, but their voters would presumably break for the status quo in a border poll.  The Greens are also neither Unionist nor Nationalist.

Seven years ago that would have been true but Brexit has undermined a lot of previous assumptions. One of the defining features of Alliance support is being pro-EU and what polling we've seen suggests that a plurality of Alliance voters are now small-n nationalist.

"TUV" is Traditional Unionist Voice: people who think the DUP have gone soft.

TUV is Ulster Scots for Herstigte Nasionale Party.

[YL]

"ALL" is Alliance, so neither Unionist with a big U nor Nationalist with a big N, but their voters would presumably break for the status quo in a border poll.  The Greens are also neither Unionist nor Nationalist.

Seven years ago that would have been true but Brexit has undermined a lot of previous assumptions. One of the defining features of Alliance support is being pro-EU and what polling we've seen suggests that a plurality of Alliance voters are now small-n nationalist.

Indeed, things have changed; I'm still a bit sceptical that if it actually came to a border poll Alliance voters would break for re-unification, but it's no longer a crazy thought.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It is worth remembering that under the GFA a border poll can only be called if it is clear that the result would almost certainly be a change in the status quo. Of course exactly what the threshold is in terms of presumed public opinion is not really clear - it's unlikely that consistent leads would be enough, which then means a matter of gauging how large and how secure, and that would be a judgement call on the part of the Secretary of State. The point, though, is that this really isn't like an ordinary hypothetical referendum, even if it often suits people to pretend otherwise (e.g. the DUPs rather pathetic attempts to claim, during this year's elections, that if they fell behind Sinn Fein in seats then a border poll would follow swiftly).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Seven years ago that would have been true but Brexit has undermined a lot of previous assumptions. One of the defining features of Alliance support is being pro-EU and what polling we've seen suggests that a plurality of Alliance voters are now small-n nationalist.

Yeah, Brexit has upended things so much that we've moved from a situation where, frankly, even a Northern Ireland with a substantial but not overwhelming Catholic absolute majority would probably not actually vote for unification, to one where the longterm future is genuinely unclear. Backing it has been a spectacular own-goal even by the standards of the Unionist parties.

[ObserverIE]

Seven years ago that would have been true but Brexit has undermined a lot of previous assumptions. One of the defining features of Alliance support is being pro-EU and what polling we've seen suggests that a plurality of Alliance voters are now small-n nationalist.

Yeah, Brexit has upended things so much that we've moved from a situation where, frankly, even a Northern Ireland with a substantial but not overwhelming Catholic absolute majority would probably not actually vote for unification, to one where the longterm future is genuinely unclear. Backing it has been a spectacular own-goal even by the standards of the Unionist parties.

Having a series of governments in London who have been at best obsessed with a blinkered ideological nationalism over any attempt at competence and at worst actively malevolent has served to shift the balance as well. Apart from the brief interregnum of Julian Smith there have been a series of NI secretaries since at least 2010 who have been incompetent, dishonest, or both.

I would say that the long-term future is actually pretty clear because of the above factors as well as the fact that the demographic profile of the median voter in NI has changed and will continue to change. EU membership meant that the precise status of NI didn't matter that much for ordinary life; Brexit and the seemingly desperate attempt on the part of Westminster to maximize the differences between the UK and the EU 27 (and domestically having Frost and Truss playing footsie with the DUP and - even more poisonously - "Loyalist community leaders" who everyone knows are paramilitaries and drug-gangs) has made that impossible. Labour in power may stop aggravating the situation but they're unlikely to be able to undo the damage.

[Frodo]

The new Prime Minister Liz Truss is trying to undo the damage her predecessor, Boris Johnson, left behind with regard to Northern Ireland:

Britain still seeking negotiated solution with EU on Northern Ireland - PM Truss

[CumbrianLefty]

Truss was briefing before becoming PM that she would invoke Article 16 "within days".

I suppose other, uh, events have intervened there.

[EastAnglianLefty]

The census figures are somewhat misleading, because it's the proportion from a Catholic or Protestant community background - i.e. which community they were brought up in. It doesn't tell you who actually strongly identifies with that community, and who is distrustful of the other side due to a lack of interaction with them but doesn't trust the leaders of their community either. The neithers are almost certainly a plurality and are certainly increasing rapidly. The fact that it is very difficult to openly renounce your community identity means that the salience of that has been limited, but if that changes then a lot is likely to change quite quickly.

[Frodo]

Northern Ireland is starting to resemble Israel in its dysfunctional politics:

Northern Ireland likely headed for election

Northern Ireland appears headed for a snap election as soon as mid-December after the Northern Ireland Assembly failed to elect a new speaker on Friday.

Failure to elect a new speaker by the end of Thursday, means the assembly, commonly referred to as the Stormont, will now be mothballed, leaving Northern Ireland without a devolved government.

Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party refused Thursday to appoint a neutral speaker, the fourth straight time it has done so. That ended a 24-week period to form a new unity government.

That news meant all 10 remaining caretaker ministers in the Northern Ireland Executive lost their jobs at midnight. Several issued last-minute decrees before their time in office abruptly ended.

Without an executive, day-to-day governance falls to the senior civil servants in the various ministries and departments.

Britain's new Northern Ireland secretary Chris Heaton-Harris has said publicly that he would call a snap Stormont election if the DUP continued its stalling tactics. Heaton-Harris is expected to call that election Dec. 15. That would come only seven months after the previous election and pundits have speculated there is little public appetite for it.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Northern Ireland is starting to resemble Israel in its dysfunctional politics

Starting to?

[Cassius]

Israel is a model of functionality by comparison to Northern Ireland.

[YL]

They really ought to change the rules so that one party can't block the operation of the Assembly like this.  It wouldn't be that big a change to say that if one of the two biggest parties takes their ball away then their role in government formation passes to the next biggest party of their designation.

Unfortunately it's hard to see an election changing very much, and what sort of turnout are we going to get if the voters think that, especially if it's held on 15 December?

[CumbrianLefty]

Yes, you do wonder what on earth the point is of another election right now.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Israel is a model of functionality by comparison to Northern Ireland.

Funnily enough I was using Northern Ireland as an example the other day of why a one state solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict would be unworkable. It's been a generation since the end of major sectarian violence and powersharing is still routinely collapsed by one aggrieved party or another, even with the existence of major patron states (UK + ROI) as a backstop to the peace process.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Israel is a model of functionality by comparison to Northern Ireland.

Yes, it has at least been possible for Israeli governments to pass legislation at various points over the past few years.

[Frodo]

From a few weeks ago, but I haven't seen this story posted yet:

https://twitter.com/Kilsally/status/1600551628301647907

The DUP acting like sore losers after coming in second place in the last election can't be helping them, let alone Northern Ireland as a whole.

[(no subject)]

When it comes to a "united Ireland":

The paedophilia scandals have destroyed the Roman Catholic Church's moral authority across the world and unionists can always remind Ulster voters that the Irish republican leadership were close adherents to said protectors of perverts for many decades.

Will be "interesting times", in the Chinese sense.

[Conservatopia]

When it comes to a "united Ireland":

The paedophilia scandals have destroyed the Roman Catholic Church's moral authority across the world and unionists can always remind Ulster voters that the Irish republican leadership were close adherents to said protectors of perverts for many decades.

Will be "interesting times", in the Chinese sense.

That's not how Ulster politics works.

[Estrella]

When it comes to a "united Ireland":

The paedophilia scandals have destroyed the Roman Catholic Church's moral authority across the world and unionists can always remind Ulster voters that the Irish republican leadership were close adherents to said protectors of perverts for many decades.

Will be "interesting times", in the Chinese sense.

brtd

[Continential]

When it comes to a "united Ireland":

The paedophilia scandals have destroyed the Roman Catholic Church's moral authority across the world and unionists can always remind Ulster voters that the Irish republican leadership were close adherents to said protectors of perverts for many decades.

Will be "interesting times", in the Chinese sense.

21% of Catholics in Northern Ireland support unionism. Guess you want to alienate them I suppose.

[(no subject)]

When it comes to a "united Ireland":

The paedophilia scandals have destroyed the Roman Catholic Church's moral authority across the world and unionists can always remind Ulster voters that the Irish republican leadership were close adherents to said protectors of perverts for many decades.

Will be "interesting times", in the Chinese sense.

brtd

I'm not a Tory. I'm an anti-socialist centrist.

[CumbrianLefty]

Some might argue "same difference" there