Australia General Discussion

[Vosem]

Apparently Robbie Katter's threatening to withdraw support because of the scandal. Ugh.

I thought Palaszczuk was relying on ALP+Wellington, though? The KAP's support would only be significant if the government loses a by-election.

[Talleyrand]

Since Wellington is speaker, he doesn't have a deliberative vote except in the case of a tie.

When Gordon was in the ALP, the ALP had 44 members on the floor (in case of a tie, they could get 35 with Wellington).

Now they have 43, and if Gordon doesn't vote and the KAP votes with the LNP, the opposition would be at 44, enough to bring down the government. That said, Springborg has stated he would provide a pair if Gordon tries to vote with them, so that complicates things even more.

[Talleyrand]

Newspoll Quarterly is out.

Here are the results, with an EXTRAORDINARY result in WA (though I don't believe and neither should anyone else).

NSW- ALP ahead 54-46
SA- ALP ahead 53-47
WA- ALP ahead 54-46
VIC- ALP ahead 59-41
QLD- 50-50

In addition, Abbott has set a record for highest unpopularity ever recorded in a state, with his approval in South Australia tumbling to 19%, with 74% disapproving, beating out Julia Gillard's record low of 22% in Queensland back in 2012. No wonder the state ALP is currently leading in the polls.

http://resources.news.com.au/files/2015/04/05/1227292/418192-150406newspoll.pdf

[Hifly]

Can't see the tables (subscribers only) but one would think the out of line QLD result can be attributed to the recent scandals rocking the government, however if I'm correct these polls were conducted over a period of 2-3 months.

The SA result is also surprising seeing how low Abbott's approval is.

[Talleyrand]

Can't see the tables (subscribers only) but one would think the out of line QLD result can be attributed to the recent scandals rocking the government, however if I'm correct these polls were conducted over a period of 2-3 months.

The SA result is also surprising seeing how low Abbott's approval is.

Agreed on the second count, but it should be noted that there is also a 13 year old aging state government in the state. People may not be itching to throw out the federal Libs as much as if there was a state ALP government. Not sure though.

I think the bigger factor in Queensland is not the Billy Gordon scandal (I doubt this has had any major impact at all), but the removal of the extremely unpopular Newman government that was damaging its federal counterpart in polling. That said, it's a shift from 52-48 ALP to 50-50.

[Talleyrand]

The first state poll has dropped, and it's from WA.


TPP
Labor- 52% (+2)
Coalition- 48% (-2)

Primary
Coalition- 40% (-2)
Labor- 35% (+2)
Greens- 14% (-1)
Otherd- 11% (+1)

Colin Barnett Favorability
Approval- 38% (+1)
Disapproval- 53% (+4)

Mark McGowan Favorability
Approval- 53% (+5)
Disapproval- 28% (+1)

Preferred Premier
McGowan- 44% (+4)
Barnett- 38% (-1)

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/04/06/newspoll-52-48-to-labor-in-western-australia/

[Barnes]

What a lovely poll!

The further drop in Abbott's fortunes in the other round of polls puts to rest the silly idea that he was on a "comeback."

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I'm guessing WA is particularly hit by the failure of Australia to do anything useful with the (now tapering off) mining boom, and therefore is feeling particularly annoyed towards Abbott's policies.

[Talleyrand]

https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/26973940/abbott-support-sinks-in-wa-poll/

ReachTel matches the federal Newspoll federally in WA (54-46 to ALP), and has the ALP leading 54.7-45.3 in Swan, a reversal from their 43.5-56.5 loss in 2013. It should be noted however that WA is undergoing a MAJOR redistribution this year, so electorate polls there will be totally useless until then.

[Hifly]

So back in the Outback, the NT Labor Leader is being asked to resign in the wake of a damning report, and the former President of NT Labor was arrested and is being threatened with a severe jail term after returning from fighting ISIS amongst the Kurds. As you casually do.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Surely if he was fighting against ISIS, he gets a medal rather than a jail term?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Nick Xenephon has announced that his new party will target ministers Pyne and Briggs (among others) in the federal election next year - and may direct his preferences towards Labor if the government screws the pooch on the submarine issue. in theory they should be safe - but the government is extremely unpopular in SA and Xenephon seems far more wily than other wannabe minor party leaders.

[Talleyrand]

That ReachTel for Swan apparently was conducted on behalf of the United Voice Union, and it also has the ALP ahead 57-43 in Eden-Monaro, the famous NSW "bellwether". It also has Labor up in Hindmarsh (SA) and Bonner (QLD), although we don't have specific numbers yet.

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/voter-angst-on-tax-avoidance-and-penalty-rates-20150407-1mfbfa.html

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

That ReachTel for Swan apparently was conducted on behalf of the United Voice Union, and it also has the ALP ahead 57-43 in Eden-Monaro, the famous NSW "bellwether". It also has Labor up in Hindmarsh (SA) and Bonner (QLD), although we don't have specific numbers yet.

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/voter-angst-on-tax-avoidance-and-penalty-rates-20150407-1mfbfa.html

Frankly, if the ALP can't win back Hindmarsh, Bonner and E-M in 2016... then they shouldn't be bothering contesting anything.

[Talleyrand]

Definitely. All pretty low hanging fruit.


Also, lmao.

http://www.news.com.au/finance/business/qld-dirt-digger-in-epic-email-fail/story-fnki1jcy-1227298150266

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

'John Madigan's Farming and Manufacturing Party' must be one of the lamer party names ever.

I m enjoying how every indo is starting their own party.

[Phony Moderate]

So, Richie Benaud. Surely a bigger legend and icon than any politician down there (ever, that is)?

[BaconBacon96]

So, Richie Benaud. Surely a bigger legend and icon than any politician down there (ever, that is)?

It's a sad day for Australia and for all cricket fans across the world.

[Ebowed]

Surely if he was fighting against ISIS, he gets a medal rather than a jail term?

Any fighting overseas unauthorised by the government is illegal, although I'm surprised they are actually going through with threatening jail time.

[morgieb]

So, Richie Benaud. Surely a bigger legend and icon than any politician down there (ever, that is)?

Probably, yeah.

As I said on another forum:

Anyone with any sort of interest to the game at all above the age of 10 will recognise the voice of Richie. He basically defined commentary. Never a cheerleader, just loved good cricket. The game is poorer for his loss. RIP.

[Talleyrand]

Galaxy has it 50-50 in Queensland, based on preferences from both the 2012 and 2015 elections. 62% of Queenslanders think Billy Gordon should resign, and Annastacia Palaszczuk hasa 53% approval rating compared to 24% disapproval rating.

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/04/11/galaxy-50-50-in-queensland-2/

[Knives]

Newspoll is bad for Labor.

[Talleyrand]

Newspoll is bad for Labor.

Ipsos has it 54-46, and Newspoll at 51-49.

Worst thing for Labor is the huge decline in Shorten's numbers. He's at 33-51, while Abbott is at 33-59. They're basically deadlocked for preferred premier.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Newspoll is bad for Labor.

And Ipsos is good for Labor. Something for everybody!

[Phony Moderate]

It says a lot about Abbott that more would prefer Shorten as PM than are satisfied with him (Shorten, that is).