Can Obama Defeat Clinton?

[Lincoln Republican]

Can Barack Obama defeat Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination?

Please discuss.

[Ogre Mage]

I would estimate that Obama has a 15% chance of winning the Democratic Nomination and Hillary Rodham Clinton has a 75% chance.  So the answer is yes, but it is not very likely.  Of the 4 early primary states -- Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina -- I think Clinton would have to lose at least 3 of the 4 for Obama to knock her out come Super Tuesday. 

Clinton has double digit leads in all the early states except the very first -- Iowa, where there is a 3-way dead heat.  Obama must beat Clinton here to have a chance.  Otherwise the race is over.

If by some chance he defeats her in Iowa by a 12%+ margin (very unlikely)  the momentum will likely ride him to victories in the other states.  But a more probable scenario would be a narrow (1-4%) Obama victory.  In that case, Clinton would probably see her numbers in N.H., Nevada and S.C. drop but I think she would still cling to a modest single-digit lead.  Then it will really come down to whose campaign is stronger on the ground -- and I suspect the answer is Clinton's. 

[Kushahontas]

can obama defeat hillary and become the nominee? sure.

will obama win iowa? possibly.

will his win deter hill from dominating? no.

will hillary be the nominee? yes.

[MarkWarner08]

Can Barack Obama defeat Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination?

Please discuss.

If Obama win Iowa AND New Hampshire, I find it hard to foresee Hillary winning the nomination. Right now, though, I think Edwards will win in Iowa.