Lieberman/McCain vs Bush/Cheney 2004

[politicaltipster]

Joe Lieberman wins the primaries and selects John McCain as his running mate.

My view is that it is closer that I'd like to admit because Lieberman is neither a great campaigner nor a great debater (and he was worse before August 2006). However, his centrism (and McCain's popularity) mean they carry all of Kerry's states plus Florida, Ohio, New Mexico, Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, Iow, Missouri and Virginia. The Dems recapture both the House and the Senate.

Without McCain I'd say that Lieberman captures Florida, Ohio, Iowa and Nevada.

There is also the possibility that if the Demcorats nominated Lieberman, Giuliani would replace Cheney on the GOP's ticket in this scenario.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

With Jeb Bush as Gov back then, Bush would of still managed to control the machinery in FL and won, I give Lieberman IA, OH, NM, and NV.

[Lincoln Republican]

Why on earth would anyone think Lieberman would be victorious as a Presidential candidate in 2004?

As a national candidate at the head of the ticket, he would have been a disaster.  He would have fallen far short of Kerry's performance.

A successful Senator from New England, yes, but as a Presidential nominee, Lieberman has loser written all over him.

By 2004, McCain was a loyal suppertor of Bush.  That would have been difficult to explain away on the campaign trail.  Besides, people vote for the top of the ticket, not the VP pick.

Bush/Cheney                 341
Lieberman/Mccain          197

[politicaltipster]

IRL McCain did support Bush (and rebuffed suggestions that Lieberman would make him SecDef or SecState). However, we know now that McCain met with Kerry several times before deciding to stick with the GOP. I also seem to remember that Lieberman ran several ads in late 2003 with former McCain supporters saying 'I supported McCain in 2000 and now I am backing Lieberman'. He would not have run those ads without first clearing them with McCain.

McCain did show tremendous character by taking the responsible choice and deciding that Kerry's plan to withdraw from Iraq was too high a price to pay for a place in the White House and was more important than his disagreements with Bush on domestic policy. However, with Lieberman (or Edwards) that would not have been an issue and he could have honourably joined the Dems.

I also can't accept that Lieberman (or Gephadt and Edwards) would have worse than Kerry. Lieberman consistently outperformed all the other candidates in head to heads with Bush - and the Republican lead on the WoT would have been blunted, making it a totally domestic election. McCain would also have swung a lot of voters and made up for Lieberman anemic campaigning skills.

[CultureKing]

Why on earth would anyone think Lieberman would be victorious as a Presidential candidate in 2004?

As a national candidate at the head of the ticket, he would have been a disaster.  He would have fallen far short of Kerry's performance.

A successful Senator from New England, yes, but as a Presidential nominee, Lieberman has loser written all over him.

By 2004, McCain was a loyal suppertor of Bush.  That would have been difficult to explain away on the campaign trail.  Besides, people vote for the top of the ticket, not the VP pick.

Bush/Cheney                 341
Lieberman/Mccain          197

That looks about right, the base for the democrats would definately not show up in good numbers

[politicaltipster]

You overestimate the importance of the base. It's my view that the Daily Kos/Moveon.org/Michael Moore crowd ailenated more voters than they won. In any case McCain's cult status would have boosted Democrat turnout and the Evangelical Right would have been much less inclined to run a massive GOTV operation against Lieberman. Indeed I could imagine them following through on their threat to support the Constitution Party (especially if the Democrats established a massive lead).

[AndrewTX]

The Lieberman ticket gets pwn3d. I would only imagine that republicans that voted for Kerry would not vote for a ticket with McCain on it, since he went to be a n00b for the democrats.

 Bush win.

[CPT MikeyMike]

When first looking at this, it looks like a Lieberman/McCain victory until the campaign actually begins and Lieberman gets crushed.

I said (back in late '03) that the only Democrat that was running that I would vote for was Lieberman. With the Lieberman/McCain ticket, it would have won my vote but Bush still wins the election.

[True Democrat]

Bush wins it 276-262

Lieberman causes the base not to show up in the midwest and northeast.  However, with McCain on the ticket, he does much better out west, and he wins Florida.  Despite this, he loses in a close election to George Bush.

[politicaltipster]

Are you seriously suggesting that Lieberman couldn't carry NH or MI with McCain on the ticket? A few Arab-Americans in Detroit might go to Nader but these are both states that McCain beat Bush in 2000 (in any case this is balanced out by a much bigger margin among HA generally, swinging NV and CO).

I agree that the ticket would start out with a lead in the polls which would then contract as Bush got the upper hand in the debates and on the stump. However, 2004 was different from 1988 and Lieberman was no Dukakis - or even Dukakis' Lt Gov (I mean this in a positive way). I also think that the expereince of 2000 means that the Dems could have run Zell Miller and the base would still have turned out for the Dems.

[Lief 🗽]

Independents would prefer Bush to Bush Lite, and Nader would get 3-5% of the vote.

[politicaltipster]

I just don't buy that. After what happend in 2000 Nader had a ceiling of about 1%. The only group who would have voted for Nader would be Arab Americans, but even in Michigan their impact would have been marginal. In any case McCain still has (and still does to a certain extent) a following among Libertarians/Vegetarians/Jon Stewart viewers which would have pushed any wavers from the left into Lieberman's camp.

The only scenario I can see where Bush wins is one where Lieberman gets complacent and ends up pulling a Dewey (which is why McCain would be a natural choice).

[gorkay]

Lieberman/McCain is an interesting ticket (although McCain/Lieberman is more interesting IMO). It would make a good Unity08 ticket if you could ever convince them to run (which is unlikely). Ultimately, though, their strong support for the war would doom them.