Most likely "safe" state to flip?

[© tweed]

North Carolina

[Protect Trans Hoosiers]

Republicans are desperate for New Jersey to flip but i cant see it happening.

I wouldn't say they are "desperate" for it.  I'm sure they would be ecstatic if they got it, but it doesn't fit in to any of their strategies, which right now focus on the much more winnable big-ticket states like the Big Three of FL, PA, and OH.  And MI, which is a long-shot, but much less of a long-shot than NJ, and worth 2 more EVs.

They are desperate for:
Two of the Big Three
Missouri

They can't win without both of those (except in the unlikely circumstance that they do pick up WI and MN).  NJ would just be gravy.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Virginia....the DC suburbs are going to go for Kerry.  That's this year election night surprise.  The rest....no chance.

[Keystone Phil]

Virginia....the DC suburbs are going to go for Kerry.  That's this year election night surprise.  

The DC suburbs always goes Dems. That's no surprise.

[© tweed]

The DC suburbs always goes Dems. That's no surprise.

Look at a map from 2000.  Only one county did.  (But that might be the only DC suburb county, I don't know Northern Virginia very well)

[MHS2002]

The DC suburbs always goes Dems. That's no surprise.

Look at a map from 2000.  Only one county did.  (But that might be the only DC suburb county, I don't know Northern Virginia very well)

The Virginia DC suburbs:

Arlington County + Arlington City: basically an extension of DC. Should go strongly for Kerry.

Fairfax County + Fairfax City: went to Bush by the slimmest of margins in 2000. This would be a county where Kerry could (will?) pick up some votes. Personally, I expect him to win here.

Prince William County: Not as familiar with this one (South of DC), went to Bush by 8% in 2000 so probably about 6% this time around.

Loudoun County: Further west of DC, it is the 5th fastest growing county in the U.S. (Also a very high standard of living). Kerry will make some gains here but probably not as much as Fairfax Co.

Exurban Counties: Areas that Kerry has little to no chance in. His only hope is to get some ABB votes.

Other VA atlasians, this right? I spend most of my time in the Shenandoah Valley so I'm not as familiar with the DC 'burbs. My best guess: Kerry will improve in the NOVA area + Richmond and SW VA (a WV extension), possibly taking Fairfax Co, but it won't be enough for him to win the state. Bush by 3-4%


 

[AuH2O]

There really isn't anyplace in VA trending Dem that hard; the people moving into Nova are basically Republicans, but are less religious than voters in the Richmond and Roanoke areas.

So, Mark Warner won the Governor's race by running hard to the right on fiscal issues and staying moderate on social issues. All he ever talked about what how much better he would be than Earley at keeping the budget trim-- he even promised to continue the phase-out of the car tax! (initiated by Gilmore)

Kerry is left on economic issues and left on social issues. He's going to lose Fairfax, probably by an upwards of 5%. He's going to get butchered in Loudon county... he might be headed for a 20pt loss there, possibly even a little more. Prince William is in between Fairfax and Loudon; I expect a 10% Bush win there.

Kerry will rack up some votes in Portsmouth and Norfolk, but Bush will dominate Virginia Beach and Chesapeake (which are much more important than the former 2 anyway). Of course Richmond city will go heavily Kerry, along with a number of predominantly minority counties (i.e. Emporia, though even there Kerry will only win by about 5%).

Obviously, Bush's performance in VA is tied to his overall performance nationally. He won by 8 pts here in 2000. If Bush wins big, say 7% nationally, it will make it look like VA trended Dem a bit because there is less opportunity to gain votes in a place you already do very well (i.e. instead of winning VA by 15% in that scenario, it would probably be 12-13%).

If the election is close, Virginia's margin won't change. In a perfect tie, Bush would get ~53%.

[AuH2O]

Oh, and the whole point of a "safe" state is that it ISN'T going to flip, certainly not in a matter of months. Where is "none of the above?"

[Protect Trans Hoosiers]

Oh, and the whole point of a "safe" state is that it ISN'T going to flip, certainly not in a matter of months. Where is "none of the above?"

I said "most likely," not "which one will."  ANYthing can happen.  Even if there's a 1% chance for North Carolina, and a 0.01% chance for any of the others, there still is one that's the most likely.

[AuH2O]

Then in that case New Jersey. Bush probably won't win 46 states, but I know Kerry won't.

[Protect Trans Hoosiers]

The DC suburbs always goes Dems. That's no surprise.

Look at a map from 2000.  Only one county did.  (But that might be the only DC suburb county, I don't know Northern Virginia very well)

The Virginia DC suburbs:

Arlington County + Arlington City: basically an extension of DC. Should go strongly for Kerry.

Fairfax County + Fairfax City: went to Bush by the slimmest of margins in 2000. This would be a county where Kerry could (will?) pick up some votes. Personally, I expect him to win here.

Prince William County: Not as familiar with this one (South of DC), went to Bush by 8% in 2000 so probably about 6% this time around.

Loudoun County: Further west of DC, it is the 5th fastest growing county in the U.S. (Also a very high standard of living). Kerry will make some gains here but probably not as much as Fairfax Co.

Exurban Counties: Areas that Kerry has little to no chance in. His only hope is to get some ABB votes.

Other VA atlasians, this right? I spend most of my time in the Shenandoah Valley so I'm not as familiar with the DC 'burbs. My best guess: Kerry will improve in the NOVA area + Richmond and SW VA (a WV extension), possibly taking Fairfax Co, but it won't be enough for him to win the state. Bush by 3-4%

Something like this?



(Except I have PW county going Kerry, which I think it will.)

[AuH2O]

LoL

Kerry winning Virginia Beach!!!!

Next thing you know Bush will take San Francisco!

AND LOUDON!

There goes Los Angeles for Bush...

[© tweed]

Kerry winning Virginia Beach!!!!

Was 15 points over the national average for Bush in 2000, 19 above for Dole in 1996, and 24 above for Bush in 1992.

Give it 8 more years.  Kerry probably loses it by 10 if the election is a tie.

[King]

Tennessee, There isn't  Gore there screwing his chances...

[Beet]

LoL

Kerry winning Virginia Beach!!!!

Next thing you know Bush will take San Francisco!

AND LOUDON!

There goes Los Angeles for Bush...

Thats what I was going to say.

[AuH2O]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I have lived here for 20 years, so give me some credit.

At one point, it was totally dominated by the military, hence the ludicrous GOP totals- particularly against a draft dodger (Clinton).

The military still plays an important role, but the city does have 450,000 residents. All new development is upper middle class and above, so new voters are going to be more Republican than Democrat. For a while, the area had artificially low salaries and real estate values (partly because of the military, but that's another topic), and eventually that would have cost the GOP.

But, that turned around. The main reason for Dem gains is that a lot of blacks left Norfolk for Va Beach, and of course most are Democrats. In fact, Norfolk lost the most population %-wise of ANY CITY IN THE US over the last 20 years or so. They mostly went to Va Beach, and you can tell-- Chesapeake remains a dominant GOP city, because it hasn't absorbed people fleeing Norfolk.

I think Va beach is like 25% black, with sizeable %s of other Democratic groups. As those levels top out, the political situation will stabilize. It will remain solidly in GOP hands so long as the current national political situation is anything close to what it is today.

[© tweed]

I have lived here for 20 years, so give me some credit.

At one point, it was totally dominated by the military, hence the ludicrous GOP totals- particularly against a draft dodger (Clinton).

The military still plays an important role, but the city does have 450,000 residents. All new development is upper middle class and above, so new voters are going to be more Republican than Democrat. For a while, the area had artificially low salaries and real estate values (partly because of the military, but that's another topic), and eventually that would have cost the GOP.

But, that turned around. The main reason for Dem gains is that a lot of blacks left Norfolk for Va Beach, and of course most are Democrats. In fact, Norfolk lost the most population %-wise of ANY CITY IN THE US over the last 20 years or so. They mostly went to Va Beach, and you can tell-- Chesapeake remains a dominant GOP city, because it hasn't absorbed people fleeing Norfolk.

I think Va beach is like 25% black, with sizeable %s of other Democratic groups. As those levels top out, the political situation will stabilize. It will remain solidly in GOP hands so long as the current national political situation is anything close to what it is today.

Clinton ran well in the south, better than Gore did.  So you're saying that Clinton being a draft dodger (assuming he is) tipped the electorate 9 points?

[AuH2O]

No, not 9 pts, maybe 1-2%.

The rest was demographic... my point is that the shifts are mostly INSIDE VIRGINIA. So while Democrats in Va Beach have gained some votes, they are coming from Norfolk.

Since we are discussing Presidential politics, that does Kerry no good.

And, um, your stats are fishy. Dole got ~50%, lost nationally by ~9%= 59%. Bush got 56%.

So there was a 3% change between 1996 and 2000.
 
Bush Sr. got 50%, lost nationally by 6%= ~56% in 1992. (plus theoretical Perot votes that would have gone Bush in '92 and '96).

[AuH2O]

Uhh crap you're looking at something wrong, I dunno what.

[© tweed]

Uhh maybe the problem is you looked at the number wrong for 2000? You said 15% over national average, it was more like 8%.

I meant the distance between the two candidates.

[AuH2O]

Eh that's a really bad way to measure trend, especially when you consider Perot in '92 and '96.

The % of people voting GOP has not really changed much since 1992.

The demographic shift did help Democrats, like I said, but a lot of that occured in the late 80s.

[© tweed]

Eh that's a really bad way to measure trend, especially when you consider Perot in '92 and '96.

The % of people voting GOP has not really changed much.

There is no other way, considering Perot in 1992 and 1996.

[AuH2O]

Um yeah there is, just take the % GOP vote in Va Beach and then adjust for the national average.

Look, it's a pointless argument. Virginia Beach's population boom is over, at least until the Green Line is moved (in like 40 years), and if anything it might shift back towards the GOP a bit. I've talked to a lot of people involved in the city's politics- on both sides, state reps, a Dem candidate for Congress that lost to the current incumbent, etc.

But Kerry should spend a lot of $$ in Virginia. That just gives him less of a chance in a place he could win.

[nclib]

I voted North Carolina.

Virginia--predominantly Republican--only areas of Dem strength are majority-black areas and NOVA, the latter is increasing in population. VA will be closer than in 2000, but will almost certainly go for Bush.

New Jersey--I suppose Sept. 11 could help Bush do better than in 2000, but Kerry should win handily.

Tennessee--Bush didn't win Tenn. by much in 2000, but I find it highly unlikely than Kerry would win Tenn. when Gore didn't.

Louisiana--VEEEERRRY socially conservative. Kerry doesn't stand a chance here unless there is an extremely high black turnout.

North Carolina--My guess is that Bush will win, but I wouldn't be shocked if it goes for Kerry. The Raleigh-Durham area leans Democratic and is the fastest-growing area in N.C. Edwards will certainly help--he did very well in '98 among conservative Dems in eastern N.C. (who usually vote Republican for President)

Maryland--not a chance for Bush, barring a landslide. Maryland was the only state where Gore/2000 had a larger margin of victory than Clinton/1996. (BTW, Bush improved on every state that Dole won.)

[Josh/Devilman88]

North Carolina--My guess is that Bush will win, but I wouldn't be shocked if it goes for Kerry. The Raleigh-Durham area leans Democratic and is the fastest-growing area in N.C. Edwards will certainly help--he did very well in '98 among conservative Dems in eastern N.C. (who usually vote Republican for President)

Charlotte, and Triad areas will go for Bush.. so Raleigh Durham area won't matter