Most likely "safe" state to flip?

[Protect Trans Hoosiers]

I thought about including Michigan, but realized that it isn't quite in the same category.  Same with Colorado, which is a bit more secure for Bush than Michigan is for Kerry, but still in play.

Arkansas has also been thrown into play.

[??????????]

Joisey. Election night suprise.

[Keystone Phil]

I'm not sure but I know that Maryland is almsot as "safe" as Massachusetts. There's no way MD is flipping on election night.

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

I vote Virginia.

who ever suggested that Maryland could flip?

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I think Maine and even Vermont and California belong in this category well before Maryland.

On pollbooth, I currently have Kerry up by 6.8 in NJ and Bush up by 6.9 in NC (these are the closest of those you mentioned).  Between these, I would bet on NC if I had to pick one for two reasons:

1.) It is the only state you mentioned that couple flip without a strong national trend in favor of one party. (If Edwards really works it and Bush ignores it.)

2.) I trust the polls done in NC much more than those done in NJ.

[??????????]

I vote Virginia.

who ever suggested that Maryland could flip?

Though all my Maryland family is voting Republican it wont be enough sadly.

[Lunar]

Virginia - Bush + 6
New Jersey - Kerry +8
Tennessee - Bush +8
Louisiana - Bush +6
North Carolina - Bush +5 (Mason Dixon)
Maryland - Kerry +16

Voted North Carolina.

[12th Doctor]

Virginia - Kerry + 6
New Jersey - Kerry +8
Tennessee - Bush +8
Louisiana - Bush +6
North Carolina - Bush +5 (Mason Dixon)
Maryland - Kerry +16

Voted North Carolina.

Ummm, Don't you mean Bush +6 in Virginia?

[Protect Trans Hoosiers]

I think Maine and even Vermont and California belong in this category well before Maryland.

Maine is genuinely in play.  Not "safe" by any stretch.  Leaning Kerry, to be sure, but not in the bank.

In California, things could be close (like 5%), but remember that 5% translates into 500,000 votes, and those are half a million votes that Bush has no chance of making up.

Ben and Jerry is a lock.

Maryland is small and diverse enough... well, it would be wacky, but it's a state that is 1/2 DC, 1/2 North Carolina.  And if the North Carolina portion of the state gets energized, and the DC part is complacent/ignored, there's a tiny sliver of possibility.

On pollbooth, I currently have Kerry up by 6.8 in NJ and Bush up by 6.9 in NC (these are the closest of those you mentioned).  Between these, I would bet on NC if I had to pick one for two reasons:

1.) It is the only state you mentioned that couple flip without a strong national trend in favor of one party. (If Edwards really works it and Bush ignores it.)

2.) I trust the polls done in NC much more than those done in NJ.

Edwards is the only reason I put NC on the list.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I think Maine and even Vermont and California belong in this category well before Maryland.

Maine is genuinely in play.  Not "safe" by any stretch.  Leaning Kerry, to be sure, but not in the bank.

In California, things could be close (like 5%), but remember that 5% translates into 500,000 votes, and those are half a million votes that Bush has no chance of making up.

Ben and Jerry is a lock.

Maryland is small and diverse enough... well, it would be wacky, but it's a state that is 1/2 DC, 1/2 North Carolina.  And if the North Carolina portion of the state gets energized, and the DC part is complacent/ignored, there's a tiny sliver of possibility.

On pollbooth, I currently have Kerry up by 6.8 in NJ and Bush up by 6.9 in NC (these are the closest of those you mentioned).  Between these, I would bet on NC if I had to pick one for two reasons:

1.) It is the only state you mentioned that couple flip without a strong national trend in favor of one party. (If Edwards really works it and Bush ignores it.)

2.) I trust the polls done in NC much more than those done in NJ.

Edwards is the only reason I put NC on the list.

With the recent growth of Montgomery & PG (now both significantly larger than either Baltimore City or County), it's now more like 3/4 DC and 1/4 North Carolina.

Glendening won the 1994 Governor's race by winning only three counties, so the Dems don't really need to carry any of the "Southern" parts to win.

[??????????]

Sadly that's true.

[Protect Trans Hoosiers]

With the recent growth of Montgomery & PG (now both significantly larger than either Baltimore City or County), it's now more like 3/4 DC and 1/4 North Carolina.

I moved from PG in 1989, visited again in 1998, and was just blown away.  Whole areas of countryside are now subdivision.  Unreal.

However, there are Republican burbs.  Like Bowie (used to be).

I know it's a million-to-one shot, but I think it's more likely than California or Vermont.

[Lunar]

Ummm, Don't you mean Bush +6 in Virginia?

Yes, typo.  Fixed.

[MarkDel]

I say NONE of these states will flip.

The most likely would be Virginia, New Jersey and North Carolina. Louisiana...no way.

Tennessee and Maryland...no ing way...LOL

[cwelsch]

I said Jersey but Virginia is #2.  I'd rank NC 3rd of that list there.  Jersey really could flip which is uhh shocking.  I don't expect any to flip.

[Shira]

If MD and NJ there, then why not RI and MA?

[Reignman]

Maryland and New Jersey have shown surprising small margins of Kerry leading over Bush.  Usually around 5-10%.  Political pundits have speculated that these states could become competitive, but Bush hasn't used up hardly any energy to win here.  He's focusing mostly on the states that are definitely within his grasp, and have a lot more electoral votes (like Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Minnesota).

[nomorelies]

Republicans are desperate for New Jersey to flip but i cant see it happening.

Virginia could become a state that Kerry can get 46%. In the debates Kerry will highlight that he served in Vietnam while Bush played with alcohol. Bush will use Kerrys senate recordto label him. Kery will counter the arguement by claiming that Republicans have spent $100 million dollars on negativeity. Kerrys positivity will sing independent voters that America can do better and will do better under his command. Also the anti - bush vote is hitting home in the swing states. Virginia is slowly becoming democratr. I will be interested to see how Kerry does in Fairfax county.

[English]

I voted for Virginia.

[Josh/Devilman88]

I say VA.. NC should not even be on this list.... NC will go DEM when CAL goes REP.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'm thinking NC... (the growing polarisation b'tween the suburbs and everything else make it worth a watch).
Followed by Virginia (but not for the usual reasons) then... hmm... not sure. Either TN or NJ (and then only in a big win)... in Louisiana social conservatism sells very, very well and as for MD... no way is it switching unless there's a biiiiiiiiiiiiiiiig landslide for Dubya.

[shaun4013]

I voted NC

[MODU]

Maine should be on the list.

[Protect Trans Hoosiers]

Maine should be on the list.

Maine is by no means safe.  Personally, I think it belongs on the list with CO, AZ, OR, WA, and AR.  Not safe, but strongly leaning one way.

[Bogart]

I don't think any of them will.