France General Discussion

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

No, I talk about the fact that, now, Borloo, for the first time ever, had some so-called "courage" and refused to stay in the government if he isn't PM.
And what is the result ?
He may have the balls to do what he was too lazy, disorganized, messy and drunk to do before: create a new centre-right party, to replace the old UDF !

Because this is IN THE INTEREST of Sarkozy.
It's even in its interest that Borloo is a candidate in 2012, to kill Bayrou (imagine Bayrou just under 5% and so not funded by public money and so definitely bankrupt ?), but also to avoid a nasty Morin (who would do 2%, but who would become angry and dangerous), to steal votes from Villepin, and even from Eva Joly or Nicolas Hulot...

I repeat myself, but, really, I think for a long time now, that the French right needs 2 big parties, as a way to keep centre-right voters more easily.

So, maybe Sarkozy has just given Borloo enough weight to crush Morin, who is really ridiculous (and whose angry reaction tonight shows he feels a loser now), and to be able to deflate a possible Bayrou rise and a dangerous "moral" candidacy from the Greens.

By pretending to be rude on Borloo (but with letting know that you have proposed all the main portfolios to him before he resigned...),
Sarkozy in fact lead him to build the party that the right misses and that will help the main candidate (Sarkozy himself) to have his 2 legs for the second round in 2012.

Hmm, no.

Jego has been invited a lot tonight. And said that Borloo would rather stay in the majority, and not trying to split much.

Also, Morin strongly kept the former UDF with him, it will be hard to challenge him on that. The posture he took today is logical with that.

Bayrou will still be hard to challenge in a presidential context for other people from the Center.

One would hope the 500 signatures thing would spare us of 500 candidates for the Center.

Main consequences being, yeah, to have a more effective govt for Sarkozy which would help him to have less worry while campaigning, and to have the battle for the Center really beginning.

What's happening on the Left is an other realm. Valls isn't necessarily a good indicator of what's good to do, the guy is an impatient who has his own agenda. PS has to care about what's happening on the Right yes, but they also have to follow their own dynamic in order not to let Sarkozy impose his pace.

Anyhow, the few days that will follow now will tell us more about that.

[Keystone Phil]

So is Sarkozy likely to seek re-election?

Yes. Rumours of him retiring are bullsh**t. Sarkozy, like all French politicians, are egomaniacs who only fully retire once they die.

And I take it no one will seriously challenge him for the party's nomination, right?

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

So is Sarkozy likely to seek re-election?

Yes. Rumours of him retiring are bullsh**t. Sarkozy, like all French politicians, are egomaniacs who only fully retire once they die.

And I take it no one will seriously challenge him for the party's nomination, right?

Safe bet.

[big bad fab]

Globally speaking, it's the first government under Sarkozy which is really political, in the way Mitterrand's ones were.
It's very classical.

It's almost entirely an ex-RPR government. A classical rightist government, but with politicians whom Sarkozy are sure they won't make (big) mistakes.
Out the stupidities of "ouverture" to (failed) leftist politicians (like Kouchner); out the media stars with no power but with big image value (Yade); out, even the Sarkozysts who aren't professional at all (Estrosi; Lellouche put in a no-power position).

With Juppé, MAM, Baroin, Chatel, Le Maire, Ollier, Wauquiez, even Mercier or Bertrand (whether you love him or not), there won't be big mistakes.
Of course, you can argue that Lefebvre may be dangerous. But see his post ? He'll take 6 months to understand his portfolio and then he'll have 6 months to be demagogic with small businesses and retailers. And then the campaign will be on. So, no risk, in fact. Maybe it's even better to have him INSIDE the government with a technical portfolio (the same for Mariani...) than outside, speaking too freely...

Now, Sarkozy is of course candidate and, I would say, already in campaign, full-track.

Of course, the big surprise is that both the centrists AND the liberals (French meaning...) are out:
Borloo, Daubresse, Létard, Bockel, Idrac, Morin of course (AND J.C. Lagarde and Laurent Hénart  who don't get in)
Novelli, Bussereau (AND Longuet who remains in the Senate, which is less surprising as he is a good whip).

Most of French pundits say tonight (and many centre-right politicians too, like Méhaignerie, Sauvadet, of course Morin, but even Paillé) that centrists or ex-UDF have been despised or even humiliated by Sarkozy.

I'm not sure but I have a more machiavelian theory:
why Sarkozy didn't do that ON PURPOSE ?

No, not the fact that he is personally detestable and use human beings in his own interests and let them down after that. No, this, we already know. And, after all, many presidents did it, though in a more hidden way (Mitterrand was very good at it; Chirac and Giscard too; even de Gaulle in a way).

No, I talk about the fact that, now, Borloo, for the first time ever, had some so-called "courage" and refused to stay in the government if he isn't PM.
And what is the result ?
He may have the balls to do what he was too lazy, disorganized, messy and drunk to do before: create a new centre-right party, to replace the old UDF !

Because this is IN THE INTEREST of Sarkozy.
It's even in its interest that Borloo is a candidate in 2012, to kill Bayrou (imagine Bayrou just under 5% and so not funded by public money and so definitely bankrupt ?), but also to avoid a nasty Morin (who would do 2%, but who would become angry and dangerous), to steal votes from Villepin, and even from Eva Joly or Nicolas Hulot...

I repeat myself, but, really, I think for a long time now, that the French right needs 2 big parties, as a way to keep centre-right voters more easily.

So, maybe Sarkozy has just given Borloo enough weight to crush Morin, who is really ridiculous (and whose angry reaction tonight shows he feels a loser now), and to be able to deflate a possible Bayrou rise and a dangerous "moral" candidacy from the Greens.

By pretending to be rude on Borloo (but with letting know that you have proposed all the main portfolios to him before he resigned...),
Sarkozy in fact lead him to build the party that the right misses and that will help the main candidate (Sarkozy himself) to have his 2 legs for the second round in 2012.

(Oh, and as for Marie-Anne Montchamp, it's great because she was the one who worked to try to create a parliamentary group for Villepin: now Villepin has only the "mad men", J.P. Grand and Goulard...)

(and please note that Valls was the only one to understand that Sarkozy has some advance now and has said it's urgent for the PS to start campaigning...)

Of course, Sarkozy isn't at all the favourite and it will be difficult to "pull a Chirac" from this mess and these utter opinion rates, but who knows ?
And, at least, he has re-energized its basis.
And with Copé in the UMP, it will again become a war machine for 2012.
So, GOTV will be good.

Now, of course, there is all this huge rancor and desire for revenge against Sarkozy. I think he won't be able to win against this background, but, at least, he's doing well since the end of protests against pensions reform.

At least, 2012 seems to become a bit more interesting and suspenseful that first thought
I hope so

Morin is nothing and he barely controls his own party.
J.C. Lagarde, Sauvadet, Leroy, etc. are waiting for the first opportunity to kill him: Borloo will probably give it to them.

And the former UDF isn't the NC. A big bunch is in the UMP. Of course all the former DL, but also the right wing of the former CDS: Méhaignerie, Daubresse, Bosson (unfortunately not a national bigwig anymore) and the Radical Party.
So, Borloo has really a way to re-create an UDF.

As for the 500 signatures, no problem for Borloo of course.
I really hope he will be a candidate. Each election has its "surprise" and, apart from Mélenchon, it'd be fine for the UMP to have a centre-right surprise.

At least, there is something interesting inside the right for 2011-2012 !
Now, I really hope DSK will come back, so that we have also big fun in the PS... (but Aubry, whom I really hate, is very well positioned now, using Hamon and Emmanuelli against the too-much-crowded right wing of the PS, and preparing to be the "saviour" of the PS by being in its central point)

[Hash]

So is Sarkozy likely to seek re-election?

Yes. Rumours of him retiring are bullsh**t. Sarkozy, like all French politicians, are egomaniacs who only fully retire once they die.

And I take it no one will seriously challenge him for the party's nomination, right?

Unless if you count Villepin as a inter-party challenge, no. The UMP itself is controlled by Sarkozy and his allies. But, as Fab says, there could be a centre-right candidate in Morin or Borloo; but it is well known that Sarkozy is a big supporter of a united right and wants only one candidate.

[big bad fab]

Another big move in French politics :

The Parti Breton has a new leader, Yves Pelle, first deputy mayor of Erquy (22).
He replaces Gérard Ollieric, because internal rules preclude presidents to do more than 2 terms (so says Le Télégramme de Brest).

What a bad name, as the Parti Breton may well se prendre encore une pelle with him...


You're right Hash, Sarkozy does want a very united right: him and the others under him.
But the UMP is a chiraco-juppéiste thing.
And Sarkozy is, above all, a pragmatist without many principles... Hence my "theory" that, in fact, he may secretly wish a Borloo candidacy...

Of course, when you read papers today, it seems stupid. But all the "confidential" things that are "revealed" to journalists by Sarkozy's advisers are mostly crap. So, I can create my own stories !

And even if he didn't do that on purpose, consequences may well be very interesting, with a new UDF, Borloo + JC Lagarde + Arthuis + Bourlange + Daubresse + Bockel + even Méhaignerie, Raffarin, Paillé + even some more MoDem local barons who are still in the MoDem but who would be happy to let Bayrou down,
all that would really be funny.
With a little "momentum", who knows, Lepage and Waechter may well join !

I hope I'm not dreaming... I'm so desperate to have something to "eat" before 2012...
Aubry-Sarkozy would be so boring...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Well, for me, you really give too much opportunities for Borloo, and really to weak ones to Morin.

I'm not a fan of Morin, but he clearly tried to recreate a strong pole in the center before everybody for months now, and all the big guys of the classical Center-Right were behind him so far, and Arthuis was quite active in allying him to recreate this big Center, and in the mouth of Arthuis it would be an Independent Center moreover, not a Center Right anymore, at least in the posture.

It would really need a coup to counter Morin now. It would really need Borloo to enter in a rather strong opposition to Sarkozy too, and so far, since his departure, seems he takes some distance, but not that much, he isn't a very tough guy too, oppositely to Morin who 'wants some'. This plus Borloo's outfit being part of UMP, I really don't give much credit to a strong Borloo adventure. But you never know, the 1st interviews of Borloo will tell more about that.

Anyhow, the big guy of the Center for people, it remains Bayrou, polls keep showing it even if the guy lives alone in an orange UFO for months now. If you add Villepin who tries to take this space too, and proposed to ally with Borloo as well (yeah, unlikely, but shows how it's messy), there really is too much egofest for that something interesting comes out from this battle of the Center. One would hope some guys like Arthuis and Lagarde do something interesting, but that would just be a messy petty fight.

As for Waechter, he joined the 'union' 'Europe Ecologie-Les Verts'.

And for PS, even if I don't really get how a person like Aubry, basically a 'cheftaine Scout' can make born some hatred, I really wouldn't be enthusiasmed by her, and her rhetoric from where I was 13 years old. DSK, bah, he is a dandy, I don't see him able to manage a political fight, especially given a Sarkozy, and the guy lived way out from French politics for a while now, he can remain kinky as long as he shuts his mouth and stays far, but him entering in the arena? I would be curious of the result. Especially against a Sarkozy, a Sarkozy in campaign is a wonderful war machine to handle debate and oration, and he can still find a positioning in which he could have chances to win. Remains Royal and Hollande, and yeah, the landscape really isn't wonderful oh damn it.

I maintain what I say for months and months now, the big winner would be abstention in the next presidentials, maybe we could meet an abstention we never knew so far for a presidential.

Just hope Sarkozy will be out personally. The guy fails at everything (what's left? RSA, yeah, from the only real 'ouverture' of one his govts), he can't even manage to pass decent reforms that can have a real impact, even if of rightist inspiration, everything he tried to do just failed. What a joke about pension reforms for example, the guy only touched a symbol, and has put the country in Street for something that was pointless, people already continued to work after 60 for the most part, and guys economically on the right say it too, that it really didn't changed a lot, the most important has been a battle of symbol, and unions told before the battle began that they would agree to do more concessions if the symbol wasn't touched (which remains something concrete, but most of people don't use it), but the guy couldn't help but to pointlessly impose his pointless proud mark on the country, no matter the foreseeable consequences, what a smart way to govern...

The guy has only been able to screw still more the psychological ambiance in the country. That guy is only some wind, an unpleasant annoying wind. May he be out the fastest possible, no matter who on the Left.

[Antonio the Sixth]

You really care about all this "remaniement" bullsh*t ?

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

You really care about all this "remaniement" bullsh*t ?

No matter you want it or not it has some consequences, even if that doesn't mean the policy of the govt would change. Politician consequences, not political ones.

[Antonio the Sixth]

You really care about all this "remaniement" bullsh*t ?

No matter you want it or not it has some consequences, even if that doesn't mean the policy of the govt would change. Politician consequences, not political ones.

Oh sure, Borloo is pissed off and Fillon is happy because he will be able to be irrelevant for two more years. But I still don't know why anyone should care besides the ministers/former ministers/could-have-been ministers themselves.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

You really care about all this "remaniement" bullsh*t ?

No matter you want it or not it has some consequences, even if that doesn't mean the policy of the govt would change. Politician consequences, not political ones.

Oh sure, Borloo is pissed off and Fillon is happy because he will be able to be irrelevant for two more years. But I still don't know why anyone should care besides the ministers/former ministers/could-have-been ministers themselves.

What has been discussed here so far for example. It starts a battle in the Center. It also shows and technically officializes a lesser importance for ecologist policies in this govt.

[Hash]

You really care about all this "remaniement" bullsh*t ?

No matter you want it or not it has some consequences, even if that doesn't mean the policy of the govt would change. Politician consequences, not political ones.

Oh sure, Borloo is pissed off and Fillon is happy because he will be able to be irrelevant for two more years. But I still don't know why anyone should care besides the ministers/former ministers/could-have-been ministers themselves.

The important things lay beyond the actual new guys and old guys coming in and out.

[Antonio the Sixth]

You really care about all this "remaniement" bullsh*t ?

No matter you want it or not it has some consequences, even if that doesn't mean the policy of the govt would change. Politician consequences, not political ones.

Oh sure, Borloo is pissed off and Fillon is happy because he will be able to be irrelevant for two more years. But I still don't know why anyone should care besides the ministers/former ministers/could-have-been ministers themselves.

What has been discussed here so far for example. It starts a battle in the Center. It also shows and technically officializes a lesser importance for ecologist policies in this govt.

The battle in the center will be resolved in a way or another, and the centrist candidate in 2012 (if ever there is one) won't have any influence.
Also, LOL @ the idea that Borloo as PM would have meant a greater importance of ecological policies.

[Хahar 🤔]

With the collapse of the UDF, the logical impossibility of a center unaligned with the right in the French political system has become apparent.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

You really care about all this "remaniement" bullsh*t ?

No matter you want it or not it has some consequences, even if that doesn't mean the policy of the govt would change. Politician consequences, not political ones.

Oh sure, Borloo is pissed off and Fillon is happy because he will be able to be irrelevant for two more years. But I still don't know why anyone should care besides the ministers/former ministers/could-have-been ministers themselves.

What has been discussed here so far for example. It starts a battle in the Center. It also shows and technically officializes a lesser importance for ecologist policies in this govt.

The battle in the center will be resolved in a way or another, and the centrist candidate in 2012 (if ever there is one) won't have any influence.
Also, LOL @ the idea that Borloo as PM would have meant a greater importance of ecological policies.

Hmm, ok, then you decided that all of this was BS and then you decided not to care about anything to the point to made up some things. As you want, cute.

I never spoke about the fact that Borloo as a PM would have given greater importance to ecology. I only spoke about the fact that, what has been a big pledge during the campaign, the fact to have a very big ministry of Ecology, which, as an important technical thing included Energy, and which had the status of most important ministry, with a big figurehead for it, all of this is now over, and Energy is concretely back in the office of Money with Industry. That is a concrete consequence of what happened.

2nd, the battle of the Center. I don't know when it could have happened, what I see is that it really begins now, because of this, and if Borloo had stayed within the govt, which was possible till the last minute, this battle would have been different. And, beyond the battle for the Center, it is a redisigning of the Right that could continue. It alreayd began on the right of the Right with a part of UMP ready to ally with FN eventually, now it begins on the left of the Right, with the Centrists apparently quite unhappy of what just happened with this new govt, and taking more distances with the classical Right (let's say RPR to be simple) than what they never did since the creation of UMP (almost a decade). All of this are direct consequences of what just happened.

And, the kind of govt chosen is also one which orientates the country still more toward the campaign, preferring classicism and professionalism over adventurism, which could give less worry to Sarkozy while a campaign, and the other parties, like PS, feeling that, it also incline them to orientate them more toward the campaign. It gives a new pace and a new perspective in the political life of the country.

This thing, while it would change almost nothing to the policies of govt, except a lesser importance to Ecology (in case it really had some, but here it becomes technically concrete), has these consequences on the political life of the country. You can try to mimmick Mélenchon or Besancenot if you want, but well, while you're not forced to care about them, and while it hasn't made the country upside down, some things are here.

[Antonio the Sixth]

If it's important for you, fine then. I'd like however not to be called a far-left stooge just because I disagree with you.

With the collapse of the UDF, the logical impossibility of a center unaligned with the right in the French political system has become apparent.

Rather say it has become blatant. You probably know it has been apparent since at least the mid 1960s.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

If it's important for you, fine then. I'd like however not to be called a far-left stooge just because I disagree with you.

Nah, stop taking the things over the top, was just saying you were sharing the rhetoric with them on that matter.

Neither, that I considered it was 'important' for me. I said the country wasn't upside down, and I tried to precisely list what would be the consequences of that. Between 'total BS' and 'important', there is something in between.

[Хahar 🤔]

With the collapse of the UDF, the logical impossibility of a center unaligned with the right in the French political system has become apparent.

Rather say it has become blatant. You probably know it has been apparent since at least the mid 1960s.

Indeed.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Montebourg candidate to presidency!! (well, to Socialists' primaries, the 1st official one, or 2nd is Valls confirms)

[big bad fab]

Christian Pierret might be candidate too... ROFL !

Gérard Collomb
Jean-Louis Bianco
Pierre Moscovici
Benoît Hamon
Manuel Valls
François Hollande
Ségolène Royal
DSK
Martine Aubry
Arnaud Montebourg
...
Too bad Fabius, Emmanuelli, Delanoë and Peillon are out !

Of course, Hamon is candidate if DSK is candidate
Moscovici and Collomb are candidate if DSK isn't... So they won't be all candidates at the same time !
And maybe, with Aubry and DSK playing their Blair-Brown game, there won't be any real primary after all...

But it's really becoming enjoyable... And I'm not saying this just because Sarkozy may, after all, have a slight chance to win... Just because political competition is so fun !
(and with centrist grandes manoeuvres, 2012 is really giving me some appetite at last !)

Forza PS !

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

I really don't think there will be that much candidate. I've actually been surprised Montebourg dares being one, but all-in-all, yeah, would makes the things more interesting, I heard this morning that he wanted to embody a filiation with ideas from Filipino sociologist Walden Bello, which in short would be a protectionist leftist preaching for 'deglobalization'. I wonder what it would give if Montebourg strongly affirms this positioning. If he does he could be really the 'Leftist' of the list, and prevent an eventual Hamon then.

The list to me would be:

Strauss-Kahn or Aubry

(I would be very surprised Aubry breaks her word by not respecting the pact she spoke about saying she wouldn't run if DSK did, she would lose some credit, if I had to take a guess I'd say Aubry would be the one who would run between the both, DSK is so much out for a so long time and said just nothing, on any of the big issues which happened in France during the last years, and especially this one, plus he would know that he would be under huge attacks on the Left if he was a runner, and he doesn't seem to be a big fighter, Aubry would be more accepted by the left of the Left, and well she became a figurehead now)

Valls
Montebourg
Hollande

(all that 3 are safe bets)

Eventual bets:

Royal (well, not sure what she would do, but there is a window for this 'New Marianne' especially in a context of popular wide primaries)
Moscovici (could run if DSK doesn't, but really not safe bet at all)
Hamon (very eventually, especially if Aubry doesn't run)

And I actually can't imagine other ones running. A veeeeeeeeeeery eventual come back of Delanoë, at best.

Oh and, we have an other guru:

http://www.dailymotion.com/video/xfq2g4_dupont-aignan-candidat-de-la-sortie-de-l-euro_news

Buuuuuuuuuurn, buuuuuuuuuuuuurn, you devil, buuuuuuuuuuuuuuurn... (euh, that's not what he says in French, but that's kinda the same)

Oh dear, occultism really becomes trendy again, at any scale...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

And well, funny to see the 'Great Statesman' Juppé acting like a little girl with her new toys with his new functions and bashing the Socialists like an excited teen. Power can really make people stupid apparently, and I really don't see what he gained here and which kind of importance he could have especially on this post, except being in political palaces again...

Oh and, would seem that Borloo wouldn't become that 'tough leader' for the 'Battle of the Center', which could have been expected given the kind of guy he is. But well, let's wait his 1st big interview...

Oh and, just an other small bit, with this last govt change Sports became a full Ministry, and Health became...a State Secretary. Hemm...

[Јas]

Sarkozy calls journalists paedophiles - The Guardian

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[Keystone Phil]

Remember that press conference at NATO or where ever when everyone said he was drunk? I think we're beginning to realize that this is just normal behavior for this guy.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'm just getting immunized about this kind of things. And that's sad.