RISK Domination IV: Finished!

[Јas]

Well, if I can't play, I figure I can provide some game commentary.
My thoughts on the opening set-up...

HappyWarrior
Can certainly take the Midwest immediately, but has no real prospect of holding it without a string of alliances. Is outnumbered in the Southeast and can't hope to wrestle control there in the short term in Sensei decides its worth fighting for. All his Northeastern battalions will be destroyed before Round 1 has ended. Best prospects may lie in the South region, it can be taken on turn 1 and he might just be left alone there for a while.

Overall Prospects: Unlikely to establish himself as a major power. Likely to find himself in a continuous struggle to survive.


Josh22
Strongly committed to the Mideast and can expect to have control over the region after his turn. Whether or not it will be possible to defend the region's considerable border is the crucial question. Given the personalities around him, and previous gameplay it should be clear from which side his border is likely to have to meet it's first assault from. If Josh can use some diplomacy with the right players, he could use this position to establish a strong presence - however, based on past performance, question marks must hang over this general's strategic skills.

Overall Prospects: Opening position shows good potential, but will require skillful play to remain a strongman through the early rounds.


fezzyfestoon
Good opening position established along the Pacific. Should be able to take the region immediately. The only short term worry will be Sensei's men in the Southeast - though even they may be overcome straight away with aggressive play. Should be able to make rapid development and it would be surprising if fezzy isn't involved in this game right down to the wire.

Overall Prospects: Very strong challenger, should be there or thereabouts at the end.


Gustaf
Got himself a good opening deployment - the Northeast is well established as a good opening base for operations. All looked very rosy for the defending champion until the very last moment of deployments when a German battlegroup appeared to the south. There may well be no option but engagement - but it's likely that this decision will actually fall into Lewis's hands as Gustaf is likely to simply tour the Northeast and set up a solid border wall initially.

Overall Prospects: A proven strategist and diplomat - he'll need these skills to win again here. However, his ultimate fate may be decided very early on by developments from Delaware.


Sensei
Battalions stationed in maine and Alaska are immediate write-offs and are unlikely to ever to be engaged on Sensei's instructions. Even with 3 Mid-Atlantic territories, he can't hope to compete with the much stronger forces in the area. Sensei's prospects are limited initially to a Southern strategy - and this won't be easy in the short or medium term - fezzy is likely to provide difficulties in the Southwest and HappyWarrior in the Southeast. By the time his turn comes around, he might find himself already in an untenable position.

Overall Prospects: For Sensei to win he'll need to display supreme tactical nous, negotiate some tough deals and also get the roll of the dice. Unfortunately, Sensei could be forced to leave this game early.


Lewis
A late deployment from Lewis has threw the cat amonsgt the pigeons - deploying his entire force just south of the pre-game favourite setting up a a potentially explosive and costly opening. And yet, Lewis has options - North, South and East all provide possible openings. And it may be that this decision will be forced upon him by the state of play when his turn comes around. Lewis though is likely to face a threatening Black empire to the North and a burgeoning Blue one to the East. The initial set-up indicates that the Southeast may proove weak enough by this stage to simply roll-over. Lewis though has a history of attacking would be emporers before they become too strong - even to his own cost. Make no mistake, Lewi's turn is the one which will set the tone of this game.

Overall Prospects: Not an enviable position, but still a strong one. One suspects he is more likely to be the king-maker, than the king.

[Јas]

I've sent him a reminder.

Déja vu.

I've sent a reminder to Hannibal.  If we get no response by later tonight, I'll open his spot up to MAS117, who was the next person on the sign-up list.

Alright, there's still no response from Hannibal, so I'm afraid I'm going to have to remove him from the game.

[Јas]

Yeah, I was thinking that too.  But second chances, etc.

Fair enough.

[Јas]

Commentary on Round 1

HappyWarrior
HW's opening move lacked ambition or a clear strategic overview. I'm not sure what he was trying to achieve - but there can be no doubt that he really didn't achieve anything. Given this opening salvo, it's very hard to see how he will make any impact on this game.

Josh22
Well positioned to take full control of the Mideast this go and should be able to defend it adequately at least in the short term. Circumstances have propelled him into being a minor power with potential. Whether he can exploit this potential and time expansion correctly remains to be seen.

fezzyfestoon
Clearly the strongest positioned player after round 1. Taking the Pacific proved a doddle, but he left his northern frontier with Idaho suspiciously undermanned. Whether this is a sign of a deal with HappyWarrior; a belief that HW won't want to engage him; or simply poor tactical play, is too early to say. There's no doubt though that his potential for rapid expansion in the South is considerable.

Gustaf
Played a somewhat dangerous game of taking the Northeast region despite it being littered with small forces. Despite that, he came out rather well, suffering relatively few losses. Knowing the strong presence of Lewis in Delaware and his past form, chasing for the Northeast this time may have had a touch of bravado about it. The number of his forces forced into CT and away from the first line of defense in New York also didn't help. Remarkably, the champion has fallen at the first and will almost certainly play no further part in the game.

Sensei
Was in a difficult position heading into the opening round, and despite spreading a good deal of yellow over the map, he still finds himself battling the tide. Failure to take a region or even establish himself as a prohibitive strongman in one will count against him. Sensei is likely to find himself squeezed more and more as this game goes on and it will take strong diplomatic skills to ensure himself a future into the long term.

Lewis Trondheim
Ambitious stuff from Lewis. He had multiple options by the time his turn came around. Ultimately he chose the path which he seems comfortable with - giant slaying. And he's come out of it with barely a scratch and a solid hold on the Northeast with room for expansion. He will have to keep up the rapid momentum though as developments on the west coast may overshadow everyone else.

[Јas]

Commentary on Round 2

HappyWarrior
If there was any logic behind his round, I failed to pick up on it. Stubbornly refuses to try and take a region. He goes into Round 3 as the player with the bleakest future. Realistically, there are 3 likely options open to him:

• continue making random moves
• try and make a deal with fezzy to secure his survival
• follow Lewis's lead and possible set in place an alliance against fezzy

There is little doubt which of these is the 'correct' play. Unfortunately, given past form, there can be little doubt what he will choose to do.

Josh22
Took the Mideast region without much difficulty. The easy part for Josh is most definitely over though. The question is what to do next. His next moves will make clear just how strong (or otherwise) his reading of the game is.

fezzyfestoon
Not a lot wrong with his Round 2 efforts. Is now plainly the man to beat - but he hasn't yet reached the tipping point. To his benefit though he can afford to play cautiously from now on as only a concerted effort by just about all the other players could really stop him and given the circumstances, it's hard to see the others coming together effectively.

Sensei
Managed to finally get a hold of a region, though it's clearly taken its toll. Sensei is the one player in no real position to offer anything to the prospective alliance against fezzy right now (though it's quite likely he'll find himself in the firing line shortly). And should the others concentrate on such an effort, he could find himself with relatively natural and straightforward opportunities for expansion. However, these avenues aren't sustainable even in the medium term and even defending his region will prove difficult.

Lewis Trondheim
True to form Lewis turned straight away to trying to deal with the board's strongman. The venture though proved to be rather ineffectual this time. He has clearly placed all his eggs in the 'alliance against fezzy' basket, but he is dependent on others following him into the breach. Forgive me if I don't start betting on this happening.

[Јas]

Guys,

There's a very vague boundary between spectators providing general commentary on the state of play, and openly criticizing certain players for perceived mistakes or trying to influence them one way or another.  As you can imagine, the latter type of comments do not make things particularly fun for the players.

As vague as that definition is, nevertheless, I think that comments like these...

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... are of that latter type, and I'd really prefer it if they were left out of this game.

I think "guys", must have been a typo as every quote was from me. I'm sorry, I guess having been part of the game I felt more emotionally invested in it or something.

Yeah, the notice for "guys" had me worried for a while because I thought their was really just the 2 of us who were really commenting on things.

(though I would like to note that no one has ever followed any recommendation I've given, so it hasn't affected anything so far).

Obviously, it wasn't very good advice.

[Јas]

Commentary on Round 3

HappyWarrior
On the positive side, HW took a state and so gained a Risk card. The negative side would test my patience to type out. In short, HW's inexperience continues to be revealed. No effort has been made, in 3 rounds to make a coherent attempt to capture a region; nor to even manoeuvre himself into a position of relative strength; nor to form a relatively stable defensive position. Circumstance has so far kept him from being a target; and may well be kind enough to allow him to meander through another round or two. His accumulation of cards though make him a target sooner rather than later. Ask not for whom the bell tolls...

Josh22
After two rounds of simple tactical play executed competently, the wheels finally came off the wagon in Round 3 for Josh. With 11 reinforcements the potential for inflicting a serious wound on fezzy was readily apparent, but the opportunity was woefully scorned. From his initial  attack orders, it seems Josh was attempting a general westward expansion - however his reinforcement placement for such a plan was poor. (The Oklahoma assault, for example, in particular was highly questionable from a cost/benefit perspective.) Hope was not lost though as the force that took Nebraska was capable of ripping a massive hole in fezzy's front line.

After a brief assault on Wyoming, Josh sent his troops north to cocoon them in North Dakota, not inflicting any damage on fezzy and leaving his region defenceless. No matter what way I examine this it eludes me how this could be seen as the best option, or even a positive option. Josh paid the price for this error and is now dependent on his Risk cards to get back into the game.

fezzyfestoon
Patched up the hole and took a Midwestern state crippling Josh's reinforcement potential. Sensible play while the world around him crumbles in on itself.

Crucially though left his southern border defenceless. Fortunately for him his red neighbour has shown no inclination to take on the sprawling giant.

Sensei
Adventurous, aggressive and lucky play - qualities oft needed to win in Risk - were displayed by Sensei in this round. However, there can be little doubt that the assaults were also both too many and misguided. Taking Midwestern states off Josh was a relatively pointless exercise serving only to make an enemy where none existed before. The yellow forces are now spread perilously thin. Ultimately though the biggest failing is that there is no recognition that the ultimate threat lies in the west and that only an alliance with those he's attacking is the solution, will carry a cost to be paid later.

Lewis Trondheim
Lewis finds himself cornered and far away from where he needs to be. This round's attacks were simple and soundly executed. The one issue I would raise would be the need to move (at least some of) his New York battalions closer to the front line (though given Sensei's last move, the retention is understandable).

[Јas]

Should Happy Warrior try for New Mexico?  It seems logical, but it strikes me that it just might provoke Fezzy enough to try to wipe the Red Army out next turn.  After all, with 4 Risk Cards, HW will be both a tempting target and a potential threat if he turns them in next turn and does a kamikaze strike.

If I were HW, I'd go for depriving Fezzy of the regional bonus, but it is (of course) up to him how much risk he wants to take.  After all, it's the name of the game.

HW is in an untenable position. He's now at about 50-50 to survice until the next round. He can only realistically impact the game in two ways, hurt fezzy or hurt Sensei. The 'correct' play was certainly to take NM.

Oh, and if Josh has cards and is in a vindictive mood, Sensei might've made a very bad mistake, though I'd hope Josh would pay more attention to the Green Armies slowly moving eastward than the Yellow ones at his tail.

The last round was the beginning of the end for Josh. He can't hope to regain and hold the Mideast (unless he forms a pact with Lewis). With his only significant force on his western frontier, he really should try and take on fezzy head on.

Sensei...doesn't really have a lot of good options unless he has cards and Josh/Fezzy don't take away his Southeastern regional bonus.  If so, his smartest short term tactic might be a crippling blow against Lewis, who has access to a great many reinforcements right now and has to come through Sensei to succeed.  However, that would leave him vulnerable to Fezzy and...you know the rest.

I disagree on the virtues of going after Lewis, even with cards. To do so and have a chance of success he'd need to commit everything to the venture and he could guarantee that Lewis would have to strike back as he'd have no other targets. Sensei's southern border would remain defenseless while fezzy continues his crawl east.

If nothing else, Fezzy's position is desirable because there's no one at his rear he has to watch.

There's an argument to be made that he has little to woory about at his front either.

[Јas]

Before I carry out HW's latest orders, I need to say this.  I've received a second complaint from another player about the direction that the commentary from non-players has been taking.  Specifically; the criticism is increasingly unconstructive, and the 'tactical advice' is becoming more and more prejudicial, and seems more like browbeating.

I'm not going to start defining exactly what is acceptable and what is not, so I think it would probably be better if all commentary from those who aren't actually playing the game was kept out of this thread for now.

Thanks.

I'll abide by your request and cease the commentary.

However, FTR, I stand by the last article as a piece of objective commentary, particularly that of HW because I was sensitive to your earlier remarks. There was nothing factually inaccurate about the piece and nothing which I felt amounted to a personal attack, it was simply criticism on his manner of play.

If HW (or indeed any of the other players) queries any aspect of the piece I would be happy to review it or even allow others to judge any such complaint on its merits.

In any other part of the forum, persons can expect to be challenged on their comments or actions (so long as they do not amount to personal attacks). I feel that I worked within these boundaries and don't appreciate any implication to the contrary. I think its sad that players cannot accept what I view as constructive criticism and that if they don't wish their moves to be commented on then they would be wise not to play in such a public arena.

[Јas]

Nice to see that my boys the Most Serene Republic of Arkansas are still in this!  Go neutral powers!

(This is not commentary.)

COMMENTARY ALERT !!11!

[Јas]

Certain posts have been deleted in accordance with the no-commentary policy.  I wasn't kidding about it, guys.

FTR, and I ask quite sincerely, is it really allowable for you to delete posts which are not in breach of the forum's rules? I appreciate your motivations (even though I disagree with them), but deleting the posts seems to me a rather arbitrary use of a power which wasn't given to be used for this reason.

Also, will commentary and/or criticism be allowed after the game has ended?

[Јas]

Why not just make a thread where you can talk about it?

Joe declared a ban on commentary on the game, not specifically within the game.

My understanding was that the objection to the commentary/criticism was that certain players felt  either:

• that it was unfair that they were the subject of criticism
• that the commentary was affecting player decisions

Neither of these issues would be circumvented by starting a new thread.

[Јas]

And I have to admit that I've never understood this business of getting second place (I remember TN thinking at some point that Jas hade made a pact with me to get 2nd place). Why would anyone play for second place in a game of elimination? It's pretty much all or nothing as far as I'm concerned. If you don't win you might as well get knocked out at any point.

I haven't commented on anything else...it would take far too long. But I agree with this.
As far as Risk is concerned...carpe omnium.