"Unwinnable" elections
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  "Unwinnable" elections
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Trilobyte
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« on: August 01, 2004, 04:22:13 PM »

Are there really "unwinnable" elections? Or are they winnable, if the campaign is run flawlessly?

For example, if Mondale could travel back to 1984 and run against Reagan again, could he win this time with 20/20 hindsight?
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Reignman
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« Reply #1 on: August 01, 2004, 04:41:50 PM »

No.  You need to be remotely charismatic to win.  I remember seeing Mondale's acceptance speech in '84 on C-Span.  It was surreal.  King Kong tactics/Hong Kong wages is quite possibly the worst political line I've ever heard.
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PBrunsel
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« Reply #2 on: August 01, 2004, 09:54:32 PM »

Unwinnable Elections:1804: The Federalists were only able to make a strong campaign in Rhode Isalnd and Maryland.

1860: A 3-way divided Democratic Party led to a massacre against Lincoln's solid Republican North.

1868: A war hero (Ulysses Grant) was running against a Copperhead governor (Horatio Seymoure) equaled a landslide. The Democrats sealed defeat with the camapign slogan "This is a White Man's Government, Let White Men Run It."

1872: With a slogan like, "Anything to Beat Grant", the Liberal Republicans set up a terrible defeat. Their nominee, Horace Greeley, even died before the Electoral Votes were counted.

1900: The divided Democratic Party, between gold and silver Democrats, led to a landlside for the immensly popular President William McKinley and his popular running mate Colonel Theodore Roosevelt.

1904: Alton B. Parker, the Democrat, chose to never leave his front porch until 2 weeks before the election because he was that sure he would lose.

1924: A good economy, a popular president, and a Democratic Convention that took over 200 ballots to find a nominee led to yet another landslide.

1928: Al Smith was a Catholic, and so he would not be elected president in the anti-Catholic America of 1928 Herbetr Hoover was also a national hero who no one could have defeated.

1932: A bad economy led to the terrible defeat of Herbert Hoover, and let's mix in the Bonus Army.

1936, 1940, 1944: FDR was unbeatable. He was loved by the regular man and was trusted durring Depression and War.

1952 and 1956: Eisenhower was such a strong candidate, that even Harry Truman in 1952 said Stevenson would lose.

1964; Goldwater saying things like, "We should lob a missle into the men's room at the Kremlin" scared America. Also LBJ was loved for taking the reins of government after the assanation of JFK and his Civil Rights Act of 1964. In some big cities LBJ won 90% of the African A,erican vote.

1972: After Nixon visited Chian and the USSR and the "let's paint McGovern like a Communist" ploy worked, there was nothing left but to sit back and smell the landslide.

1980: President Carter was doomed. With high inflation, gas prices, and unemployment, hostages in Iran, and Soviets in Afghanistan, it surprises me that Carter won even Georgia.

1984: "Mr. reagan will raise your taxes, I will too," said Walter Mondale. Way to go Fritz Mondale, you just scared off the middle calss.

1988: Mike "Tank Ride and Furlow" Dukakis was fair game for Lee Atwater. He milked "The Duke" Dukakis for all he was worth.

1996: After the Dole stage dive on September 18th, 1996, and his statement "Milk is as bad as cigarettes for kids" the GOP could just say "Good Night, Gracy."

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jfern
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« Reply #3 on: August 02, 2004, 03:55:16 AM »

Unwinnable Elections:1804: The Federalists were only able to make a strong campaign in Rhode Isalnd and Maryland.

1860: A 3-way divided Democratic Party led to a massacre against Lincoln's solid Republican North.

1868: A war hero (Ulysses Grant) was running against a Copperhead governor (Horatio Seymoure) equaled a landslide. The Democrats sealed defeat with the camapign slogan "This is a White Man's Government, Let White Men Run It."

1872: With a slogan like, "Anything to Beat Grant", the Liberal Republicans set up a terrible defeat. Their nominee, Horace Greeley, even died before the Electoral Votes were counted.

1900: The divided Democratic Party, between gold and silver Democrats, led to a landlside for the immensly popular President William McKinley and his popular running mate Colonel Theodore Roosevelt.

1904: Alton B. Parker, the Democrat, chose to never leave his front porch until 2 weeks before the election because he was that sure he would lose.

1924: A good economy, a popular president, and a Democratic Convention that took over 200 ballots to find a nominee led to yet another landslide.

1928: Al Smith was a Catholic, and so he would not be elected president in the anti-Catholic America of 1928 Herbetr Hoover was also a national hero who no one could have defeated.

1932: A bad economy led to the terrible defeat of Herbert Hoover, and let's mix in the Bonus Army.

1936, 1940, 1944: FDR was unbeatable. He was loved by the regular man and was trusted durring Depression and War.

1952 and 1956: Eisenhower was such a strong candidate, that even Harry Truman in 1952 said Stevenson would lose.

1964; Goldwater saying things like, "We should lob a missle into the men's room at the Kremlin" scared America. Also LBJ was loved for taking the reins of government after the assanation of JFK and his Civil Rights Act of 1964. In some big cities LBJ won 90% of the African A,erican vote.

1972: After Nixon visited Chian and the USSR and the "let's paint McGovern like a Communist" ploy worked, there was nothing left but to sit back and smell the landslide.

1980: President Carter was doomed. With high inflation, gas prices, and unemployment, hostages in Iran, and Soviets in Afghanistan, it surprises me that Carter won even Georgia.

1984: "Mr. reagan will raise your taxes, I will too," said Walter Mondale. Way to go Fritz Mondale, you just scared off the middle calss.

1988: Mike "Tank Ride and Furlow" Dukakis was fair game for Lee Atwater. He milked "The Duke" Dukakis for all he was worth.

1996: After the Dole stage dive on September 18th, 1996, and his statement "Milk is as bad as cigarettes for kids" the GOP could just say "Good Night, Gracy."



Some of those elections were sort of close, definitely not a 2000, buit also most definitely not a 1964, like 1860, 1868, 1900, 1988.
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ijohn57s
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« Reply #4 on: August 03, 2004, 09:21:26 PM »

Some of those elections were sort of close, definitely not a 2000, buit also most definitely not a 1964, like 1860, 1868, 1900, 1988.

Why do you think 1988 could have been winnable for Dukakis? In the minds of many voters, that may as well have been a third term for Reagan.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #5 on: August 03, 2004, 09:26:41 PM »

Some of those elections were sort of close, definitely not a 2000, buit also most definitely not a 1964, like 1860, 1868, 1900, 1988.

Why do you think 1988 could have been winnable for Dukakis? In the minds of many voters, that may as well have been a third term for Reagan.

Without some of his gaffes, it could have been a closer race. Actually, Dukakis only lost by about two to three points in three major states (CA, PA, IL). If he had won those three, he would have had 207 EVs instead of the 111 EVs he actually won. So like I said without some of his gaffes, it would have been a closer race.
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ijohn57s
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« Reply #6 on: August 03, 2004, 09:31:23 PM »

Some of those elections were sort of close, definitely not a 2000, buit also most definitely not a 1964, like 1860, 1868, 1900, 1988.

Why do you think 1988 could have been winnable for Dukakis? In the minds of many voters, that may as well have been a third term for Reagan.

Without some of his gaffes, it could have been a closer race. Actually, Dukakis only lost by about two to three points in three major states (CA, PA, IL). If he had won those three, he would have had 207 EVs instead of the 111 EVs he actually won. So like I said without some of his gaffes, it would have been a closer race.

Closer? Yes. Winnable? I'm still not sure. Maybe, but I'm not sure that it would have been.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #7 on: August 03, 2004, 09:37:44 PM »

Some of those elections were sort of close, definitely not a 2000, buit also most definitely not a 1964, like 1860, 1868, 1900, 1988.

Why do you think 1988 could have been winnable for Dukakis? In the minds of many voters, that may as well have been a third term for Reagan.

Without some of his gaffes, it could have been a closer race. Actually, Dukakis only lost by about two to three points in three major states (CA, PA, IL). If he had won those three, he would have had 207 EVs instead of the 111 EVs he actually won. So like I said without some of his gaffes, it would have been a closer race.

Closer? Yes. Winnable? I'm still not sure. Maybe, but I'm not sure that it would have been.

Winnable? No I don't think so. I was just saying with Dukakis gaining 96 more electoral votes, it wouldn't have been that comfortable of a win for Bush.
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ijohn57s
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« Reply #8 on: August 03, 2004, 09:42:13 PM »

Some of those elections were sort of close, definitely not a 2000, buit also most definitely not a 1964, like 1860, 1868, 1900, 1988.

Why do you think 1988 could have been winnable for Dukakis? In the minds of many voters, that may as well have been a third term for Reagan.

Without some of his gaffes, it could have been a closer race. Actually, Dukakis only lost by about two to three points in three major states (CA, PA, IL). If he had won those three, he would have had 207 EVs instead of the 111 EVs he actually won. So like I said without some of his gaffes, it would have been a closer race.

Closer? Yes. Winnable? I'm still not sure. Maybe, but I'm not sure that it would have been.

Winnable? No I don't think so. I was just saying with Dukakis gaining 96 more electoral votes, it wouldn't have been that comfortable of a win for Bush.

So, we agree. I was just wondering where you were coming from. Smiley
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