Rasmussen: Huckabee moves up to 9% nationwide

[Tender Branson]

GOP Primary:

Giuliani: 25%
Thompson: 19%
Romney: 14%
McCain: 11%
Huckabee: 9%

DEM Primary:

Clinton: 44%
Obama: 24%
Edwards: 11%
Richardson: 4%

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/daily_presidential_tracking_poll__1

[RRB]

I have decided that if I were a betting man, and I am not, that Huckabee will be the republican nominee.  He is 100% within the republican value system and is therefore not controversial for them.  I also believe that the republican party will be looking to build and secure their base in 2008 rather and win.  Clinton will be imposible to beat.  The machine is in place and runing strong.  W in a dress will be our next POTUS,and the rupublicans will focus on grass roots to attempt to rebuild their base for the future.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Still will go nowhere unless he can do something like pull off a surprise 3rd in Iowa or something. If he gets nowhere, the social conservatives will coalesce over one "Stop Giuliani" candidate, likely Romney if he has the money and momentum.

[Person Man]

If Huckabee wins, it will be like 1972, in reverse, with a radical trying to finish of the minority against an opponent that campaigns on returning to normalcy after a decade of radical activist politics. The opponent will win by like 10 points. My guess is that Huckabee is the last hurrah of the Second Radical Republican Era. Then again, if Guiliani wins, it would be like 1968, an unprincipaled nominee being caught between the radicals and the return to normalcy oppositions. Basically, Clinton represents "politics as usual", and it will be seen as a good thing.

[Mr. Morden]

Even third in IA probably wouldn't be good enough.  He'd probably need second in order to keep his candidacy alive.  I mean, where is Huckabee's first win?  Is he going to win South Carolina?  If other candidates are coming off victories in IA, NH, and MI, would Huckabee still be getting any attention at that point?

I still think his one chance is that all of his better funded rivals destroy each other with negative ads.

[M]

Just to play devil's advocate, though, what if he were to WIN Iowa? I'm guessing he'd get a surge that would tip the win to Rudy (or possibly McCain) in NH, then overtake Fred in SC. At this point it's probably a Huckabee-Giuliani race.

Certainly makes things interesting.

[Mr. Morden]

Yes, if he were to actually win Iowa, that would be a big game changer, and he'd have a good shot at the nomination.  I just don't think that's likely to happen unless Romney and Thompson (and maybe Giuliani) get drawn into a big, bloody mudslinging contest with each other, and allow Huckabee to sneak away with a victory.  Now yes, that *could* happen.  It's just not that likely.

[Democratic Hawk]

I have decided that if I were a betting man, and I am not, that Huckabee will be the republican nominee.  He is 100% within the republican value system and is therefore not controversial for them

Yes, Huckabee is the Republican to watch

Dave

[Tender Branson]

If Huckabee somehow wins IA or comes in as a close second, a well-timed and effective ad blitz in NH as well as favorable media coverage could lead to some re-thinking among Republican voters when they are heading into the booth. The same could be true afterwards for SC. But there´s still a long way to go for him and he´s not really swimming in camapign money ...

For the case Huckabee is the nominee, I created a prediction today vs. Clinton ...

[Gustaf]

If Thompson goes into decline and Guliani contonues to struggle huckabee could make 2nd place in Iowa and become the "new" face of the race. If he can force Thompson out of the race I think he has a shot at South Carolina and becoming the conservative candidate.

[Cubby]

If Huckabee somehow wins IA or comes in as a close second, a well-timed and effective ad blitz in NH as well as favorable media coverage could lead to some re-thinking among Republican voters when they are heading into the booth. The same could be true afterwards for SC. But there´s still a long way to go for him and he´s not really swimming in camapign money ...

For the case Huckabee is the nominee, I created a prediction today vs. Clinton ...

While I agree with most of your scenario, I have a hard time seeing New Hampshire voting for Huckabee. In Iowa, SC and other states, he could win the primary easily. If Pat Buchanan hadn't won the '96 primary in NH, I'd say it was impossible for Huckabee to win there.

One thing that really bothered me in 2004, was that the New Hampshire Democratic Primary vote was totally shaped by the Iowa Caucus results. Kerry got a huge surge of support after his win there. This shows that New Hampshire-ites are too easily persuaded by what happens in Iowa.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Yes, if he were to actually win Iowa, that would be a big game changer, and he'd have a good shot at the nomination.  I just don't think that's likely to happen unless Romney and Thompson (and maybe Giuliani) get drawn into a big, bloody mudslinging contest with each other, and allow Huckabee to sneak away with a victory.  Now yes, that *could* happen.  It's just not that likely.

It looks likelier judging by the debate in Orlando last night.

[© tweed]

even if Huck wins Iowa (lol) it doesn't matter - he can't finish better than second in NH (and that's a stretch, by alot). 

I can go on from there, but he has no money and will get eaten alive on Feb. 5 against Romney and Rudy even if he can be competitive in IA and SC.  it's gonna be one of those two - I tend to think Romney, but Giuliani's leads in big delegate states CA, NY and NJ may prove otherwise.  (I tend to think Romney can touch Rudy in Cali if he plays well in IA, NH, MI, NV, he's even gaining in SC, etc.)  but Feb 5 is a tough play from Mitt no matter how it's sliced but I think he can do it.  he has the money to, Huck doesn't.

[Mr. Morden]

I tend to think Romney, but Giuliani's leads in big delegate states CA, NY and NJ may prove otherwise.  (I tend to think Romney can touch Rudy in Cali if he plays well in IA, NH, MI, NV, he's even gaining in SC, etc.)  but Feb 5 is a tough play from Mitt no matter how it's sliced but I think he can do it.  he has the money to, Huck doesn't.

Giuliani's lead over Romney in CA is only a couple of points greater than his lead over Romney nationally.  So if Romney can use momentum from wins in the early primary states to catch up to Giuliani in the national polls, I don't see why he couldn't do it in CA as well.  The Romney Feb. 5th victory scenario would probably include victories in CA, IL, MO, MN, CO, UT, AZ (assuming McCain has dropped out of the race by then, which he probably will unless he does far better than expected in the early states).  Depending on how strong Thompson is at this point in the race, he might pick off a couple of Southern states as well.  Giuliani's leads in NY and NJ may well be insurmountable, but if Giuliani's victories are largely confined to the Northeast, he loses.

I'm still not sure how important money is actually going to be on Feb. 5th.  The battlefield is so large, how many of those big media markets will even the better funded candidates be able to make a dent in with paid advertising?  Especially after they will have already spent a good deal of money on the earlier states.  But money will be hugely important in MI and FL.....and really, even places like IA and SC.  And whoever gets the most momentum out of the pre-Feb. 5th primaries will probably win (IMHO)......though there's always the chance that the results from the pre-Feb. 5th primaries will be so muddled that no one gets any momentum.  In which case, Giuliani wins by default.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Yes, Huckabee is the Republican to watch

agreed.  Let's face it, most of the Republican money is still on the sidelines.  Huckabee's biggest problem has been that he is from Ark (I had a hard problem with that one).  Social Conservatives don't trust Rudy, Romney, McCain, or Thompson. As Thompson continues to fade, Huckabee's support will pick up.

Huckabee is still very unknown, so he will be the last to be "examined" by GOP primary voters.  But social conservatives will be comfortable with him, and he has enough fresh ideas in medical care and education to offer a change in course.