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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: Virginiá)
  Al Gore 2012
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Author Topic: Al Gore 2012  (Read 7542 times)
CPT MikeyMike
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« on: October 14, 2007, 08:27:30 pm »

If a Republican wins the White House in '08, against either Clinton or Obama, then is it safe to say Al Gore is the clear front-runner for the Democratic Nomination in 2012? Or is 2012 too late for Gore?
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Erc
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« Reply #1 on: October 14, 2007, 10:32:30 pm »

Al Gore, if ever he is to run for President again, will do so now.  If he isn't running this year, he certainly isn't running in 2012 or any later year.

Should Hillary get the nomination and lose, Obama presumably becomes the front-runner (with, perhaps, Hillary's running-mate if he does well for himself [and isn't Obama]).

Should someone who's not Hillary get the nomination and lose, then there is absolutely no clear frontrunner...but Al Gore (who will be 72 by the end of a second term if elected in 2012) will not even consider a run.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #2 on: October 14, 2007, 11:48:32 pm »

If Clinton gets the nomination and loses in 2008, then Obama is the frontrunner for the Dem. nomination in 2012.  After not running in 2004 or 2008, I don't think Gore is likely to run for president ever again.

Incidentally, when was the last time someone was out of public office for 12 years or more, and then made a serious run at their party's presidential nomination?  Has it happened at all in the last few decades?
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Padfoot
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« Reply #3 on: October 15, 2007, 12:57:45 am »

If Clinton gets the nomination and loses in 2008, then Obama is the frontrunner for the Dem. nomination in 2012.  After not running in 2004 or 2008, I don't think Gore is likely to run for president ever again.

Incidentally, when was the last time someone was out of public office for 12 years or more, and then made a serious run at their party's presidential nomination?  Has it happened at all in the last few decades?


Well Nixon did it after 8 (1960 and 1968) but I can't think of anyone who did it after 12.
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Robespierre's Jaw
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« Reply #4 on: October 15, 2007, 01:01:51 am »

If Clinton gets the nomination and loses in 2008, then Obama is the frontrunner for the Dem. nomination in 2012.  After not running in 2004 or 2008, I don't think Gore is likely to run for president ever again.

Incidentally, when was the last time someone was out of public office for 12 years or more, and then made a serious run at their party's presidential nomination?  Has it happened at all in the last few decades?


Well Nixon did it after 8 (1960 and 1968) but I can't think of anyone who did it after 12.

I'm quite sure William Jennings Byran did. As we all know he was the Democratic Nominee in 1896, 1900 and in 1908.
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minionofmidas - supplemental forum account
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« Reply #5 on: October 15, 2007, 01:00:27 pm »

Incidentally, when was the last time someone was out of public office for 12 years or more, and then made a serious run at their party's presidential nomination? 
Mike Gravel, 2008.
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Boris
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« Reply #6 on: October 15, 2007, 02:42:34 pm »
« Edited: October 15, 2007, 05:14:08 pm by Boris »

Incidentally, when was the last time someone was out of public office for 12 years or more, and then made a serious run at their party's presidential nomination? 
Mike Gravel, 2008.

The operative word being "serious." Tongue
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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #7 on: October 15, 2007, 03:33:07 pm »

Gore might have a shot.  We don't know that he isn't going to run for some other office.  Perhaps Governor of Tennessee in 2010.
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CPT MikeyMike
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« Reply #8 on: October 15, 2007, 03:40:53 pm »


Why would do something like that? His chances of winning anything in Tennessee are a longshot at best.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #9 on: October 15, 2007, 03:45:25 pm »

If Clinton gets the nomination and loses in 2008, then Obama is the frontrunner for the Dem. nomination in 2012.  After not running in 2004 or 2008, I don't think Gore is likely to run for president ever again.

Incidentally, when was the last time someone was out of public office for 12 years or more, and then made a serious run at their party's presidential nomination?  Has it happened at all in the last few decades?


Well Nixon did it after 8 (1960 and 1968) but I can't think of anyone who did it after 12.

Yeah, there are a few who've done it after 8.  (Giuliani is doing it after 7, which is the longest timespan for the current election cycle among the candidates with a legitimate shot at the nomination.)  Jerry Brown ran in 1992, 10 years after the end of his governorship, and he was a serious enough candidate that he won a few primaries.  Elizabeth Dole ran in 2000, 10 years after the end of her stint as Secretary of Labor (and yes, her campaign flamed out even before Iowa, but she was initially seen as a serious contender).  But 12 years is really pushing it.  That's a long time to be out of office.  I'm not sure if it's happened any time in recent history.
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© tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #10 on: October 15, 2007, 05:43:36 pm »

Gore might have a shot.  We don't know that he isn't going to run for some other office.  Perhaps Governor of Tennessee in 2010.

more likely, Governor of California.  although if he ever runs for anything again it'll no doubt be for president.
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Michael Z
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« Reply #11 on: October 18, 2007, 07:12:24 am »

Gore might be swayed for 2012 should a Republican win in 08, but Obama is a safer bet.
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Joe Biden 2020
BushOklahoma
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« Reply #12 on: October 27, 2007, 02:07:01 pm »

IIRC, Al Gore said himself one time not too long ago that he has fallen out of love with politics.  I doubt he will ever run for anything, again.  He is doing great work in the climate change arena, and he knows it.  I think he would be best served and could have the greatest impact if he stayed where he's at.
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Хahar 🤔
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« Reply #13 on: October 30, 2007, 06:43:42 pm »

2012 is way too late. I would vote for him, though.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #14 on: October 30, 2007, 06:50:58 pm »

Gore won't run in 2012, though it wouldn't surprise me if "Gore to win the 2012 Democratic nomination" is at about 10.0 on Intrade by December 2008, regardless of whether a Democrat wins next November.  Wink
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Bacon King
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« Reply #15 on: October 31, 2007, 11:12:14 am »

It's possible Gore would want to run in 2012, if Republicans win in 2008: He'd still be considered the frontrunner as soon as he got in the race, and he wouldn't have to fight a Clinton.
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© tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #16 on: October 31, 2007, 07:52:17 pm »

Gore won't run in 2012, though it wouldn't surprise me if "Gore to win the 2012 Democratic nomination" is at about 10.0 on Intrade by December 2008, regardless of whether a Democrat wins next November.  Wink


I understand that this is a joke, but I figured I'd point out that Intrade doesn't start up markets on incumbent party nominations in a situation where the incumbent is not term-limited.  notice how all DemNom2008 contracts began on 11/04/04 while RepNom2008 contracts began on 10/31/04, because, of course, either Bush wins and he is term-limited or he loses, and it both cases the GOP field is wide-open.
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WalterMitty
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« Reply #17 on: November 01, 2007, 06:20:31 pm »

it is now or never for gore.
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Reignman
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« Reply #18 on: November 03, 2007, 04:02:34 pm »

If the GOP wins in 2008, Gore will at least be asked a bunch if he wants to run in 2012. I think that before Gore announced he wouldn't run in '04, no one would have expected a good chance for him in '08 if he passed up '04, but he got a lot more popular with the base after all the anti-Bush speeches and An Inconvenient Truth. Who's to say Gore won't do some other thing that makes him popular with the base in 2009?
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