Dave Hawk's UK Commentary Thread

[Democratic Hawk]

March 14, 2008

There were ten local by-elections held March 13, 2008:

Brent London Borough - Queens Park: Lib Dem 1242, Lab 851, C 292, Green 239. (May 2006 - Three seats Lib Dem 1284, 1184, 1102, Lab 1059, 1055, 1010, Green 520, C 494, 486, Green 462, C 461, Ind 197). Lib Dem hold. Swing 5.2% Lab to Lib Dem.

Cotswold District - Water Park: Lib Dem 648, C 519. (May 2007 - Three seats C 1033, 884, 855, Lib Dem 694, 598, 541). Lib Dem gain from C. Swing 15.7% C to Lib Dem.

Harrow London Borough - Marlborough: Lab 972, Lib Dem 628, C 507, BNP 94, Ind 74, Green 71 (May 2006 - Three seats Lab 1186, 1169, 1044, C 895, 854, 784, Lib Dem 643, 625, 607)). Lab hold.

Middlesbrough Borough - Gresham: Lab 584, Ind 377, BNP 135, Lib Dem 78, C 44. (May 2007 - Three seats Ind 773, Lab 753, 749, 679, Ind 679, Ind 652). Lab hold.

Middlesbrough Borough - Marton West: C 993, Lab 413, BNP 170. (May 2007 - Two seats C 958, 859, Lab 595, Lib Dem 384). C hold. Swing 10.1% Lab to C.

Oxfordshire County - Grove and Wantage: Lib Dem 1901, C 1786, Lab 382. (May 2005 - Two seats Lib Dem 3414, 3317, C 3152, 3148, Lab 2270, 2044, Green 742, 393). Lib Dem hold. Swing 0.2% C to Lib Dem.

Oxfordshire County - Wallingford: Ind 867, C 386, Lab 69. (May 2005 - Lib Dem 2037, C 1499, Lab 593, Green 215, English Democrats 88). Ind gain from Lib Dem. Swing 1.8% Lab to C.

Telford and Wrekin Borough - Horsehay and Lightmoor: C 358, Lab 172, People’s Association 145, Ind 110. (May 2007 - Two seats Ind 479, C 454, 380, Lab 238, 195). C gain from Ind. Swing 2.8% Lab to C.

Telford and Wrekin Borough - Wrockwardine: C 918, Lib Dem 306, Lab 141. (May 2007 - Two seats C 1225, 1009, Ind 749, Lab 381). C hold. Swing 12.1% Lab to C.

Vale of White Horse District - Wantage Charlton: C 760, Lib Dem 731, Lab 177. (May 2007 - Three seats C 800, Lib Dem 727, C 670, 657, Lib Dem 595, 593, Lab 229, 226, Green 205). C gain from Lib Dem. Swing 1% C to Lib Dem.

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

March 22, 2008

There were three local by-elections held March 20, 2008:

Arun DC, Yapton - Con 620 (59.8;-4., Lib Dem 212 (20.4;-2.4), BNP 205 (19.8;+19., [Lab (0.0;-12.7)]. Majority 408. Con hold.

Havering LBC, Gooshays - BNP 865 (38.0;+9., Lab 741 (32.5;+6.6), Con 489 (21.5;-5.5), UKIP 70 (3.1;-7.6), National Liberal Party 62 (2.7;+2.7), Lib Dem 52 (2.3;+2.3) [Residents (0.0;-5.6), Ind (0.0;-2.5)]. Majority 124. Turnout 22.6%. BNP hold.

Lambeth LBC, Vassall -Lib Dem 1209 (50.4;+14.9), Lab 859 (35.8;-8.4), Con 206 (8.6;-2., Green 109 (4.5;+4.5), English Democrats 8 (0.3;+0.3), Ind 7 (0.3;+0.3) [Respect (0.0;-8.9)]. Majority 350. Turnout 25.9%. Lib Dem gain from Lab.

Dave

[The Mikado]

The fact that the BNP wins seats even on a council level is profoundly disturbing.

[Hash]

The fact that the BNP wins seats even on a council level is profoundly disturbing.

The FN controlled the city of Toulon until 2001 and had seats in the National Assembly. That means that they would need to win in a runoff. Disturbing.

[Gustaf]

I wonder when parliament will finally be hung. It has to happen at some point, given how many 3rd parties there are by now.

[afleitch]

I wonder when parliament will finally be hung. It has to happen at some point, given how many 3rd parties there are by now.

A swing of just 1.5% to the Tories will do it. That's half the swing we got last time.

[Silent Hunter]

I wonder when parliament will finally be hung. It has to happen at some point, given how many 3rd parties there are by now.

It's happened in the past. February 1974 election. Callaghan never had a parliamentary majority either.

[Democratic Hawk]

I'll report on the most recent polling Sunday. I'm living and breathing local politics right now with the elections for the new County Durham Unitary coming up May 1 - and what a stinking national environment for Labour

Framwellgate Moor is a Labour held division but very marginal (Labour majority 150 over the Lib Dems). Labour have no existing city councillors of the 6 representing the two wards (Bearpark and Witton Gilbert; Framwellgate Moor); while the existing county division has been continuously Labour since 1974. Two councillors will be elected for the new unitary council, however

In fact, as Chairman of Bearpark Parish Council, I'm the second most senior ranking Labour figure in the division; second only to the existing Labour county councillor

Yup, I'm a big fish in a small pond

Dave

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Are you running in the Unitary elections?

Btw, if I ever got my way being Chairman of a Parish Council would be an important position

[Democratic Hawk]

Are you running in the Unitary elections?

No, unfortunately I'm a man . Still, we've got the candidates I wanted; the Labour incumbent and a lady who is my Vice-Chairman

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Well, it's not a position from which one can use the bully-pullpit. Bearpark elects a new Chairman at its Annual Meeting of the Council each May. It combines, in our case, the civic and political leadership. Basically, the Vice-Chairman just steps up to Chairman and we elect a new Vice-Chairman. It's to stop one individual becoming too powerful

That's not to say, we cannot change how we do things in future. Some parishes have the same Chairman for years

Dave

[Filuwaúrdjan]

No, unfortunately I'm a man .

Ah, not that again. You could always try being a power behind the throne

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I was thinking more along the lines of making town and parish councils much more powerful than they are now.

[Democratic Hawk]

No, unfortunately I'm a man .

Ah, not that again. You could always try being a power behind the throne

Of course

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Yes, we hope to make progress towards acquiring 'Quality Status' in the not too distant future and take more responsibility once the unitary is up and running. We'll need to see how Council Tax levels out before significantly increasing the precept

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

March 28, 2008

There were three local by-elections held March 27, 2008:

Hertfordshire County - Bedwell: Lab 1452, C 625, Lib Dem 329, Ukip 165.
(May 2005 - Lab 2690, C 1209, Lib Dem 949). Lab hold. Swing 0.8% C to Lab.

Stevenage Borough - Pin Green: Lab 671, C 303, Lib Dem 149, Ukip 61, Green 41.  (May 2007 - Lab 848, C 378, BNP 211, Lib Dem 205). Lab hold. Swing 0.7% C to Lab.

Wellingborough Borough - Redwell West: C 665, BNP 177, Lab 169, Lib Dem 40, Ukip 39, Green 37 . (May 2007 - Two seats C 836, 818, Lab 243, 237). C hold. Swing 5.5% C to Lab.

Dave

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ah, the People's Republic of Stevenage.

[Democratic Hawk]

April 4, 2008

There were two local authority by-elections held April 3, 2008:

East Devon District - Dunkeswell: C 349, Lib Dem 162. (May 2007 - C 411, Lib Dem 240). C hold. Swing 5.2% Lib Dem to C.

Fenland District - Parson Drove and Wisbech St Mary: C 646, Lab 191, Ind 119, Ukip 55, Lib Dem 35. (May 2007 - C unopposed). C hold.

Dave

[Rural Radical]

March 28, 2008

There were three local by-elections held March 27, 2008:

Hertfordshire County - Bedwell: Lab 1452, C 625, Lib Dem 329, Ukip 165.
(May 2005 - Lab 2690, C 1209, Lib Dem 949). Lab hold. Swing 0.8% C to Lab.

Stevenage Borough - Pin Green: Lab 671, C 303, Lib Dem 149, Ukip 61, Green 41.  (May 2007 - Lab 848, C 378, BNP 211, Lib Dem 205). Lab hold. Swing 0.7% C to Lab.

Wellingborough Borough - Redwell West: C 665, BNP 177, Lab 169, Lib Dem 40, Ukip 39, Green 37 . (May 2007 - Two seats C 836, 818, Lab 243, 237). C hold. Swing 5.5% C to Lab.

Dave

Two good results in Stevenage for Labour.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Fenland District - Parson Drove and Wisbech St Mary: C 646, Lab 191, Ind 119, Ukip 55, Lib Dem 35. (May 2007 - C unopposed). C hold.

Second most agricultural ward in Fenland. Ward was last fought in 2003; average vote figures were Tory 657, Labour 264. This time round the Indy was a Parish Counciller from Wisbech St Mary, while the Labour candidate was from Parson Drove.

[Democratic Hawk]

April 11, 2008

There were two local authority by-elections held April 10, 2008:

Herefordshire County - Old Gore: C 422, Ind 401, Lib Dem 241, Green 49. (May 2007 - C 545, Ind 448, Lib Dem 193).  C hold. Swing 6.7% C to Lib Dem..

North East Derbyshire District - Holmewood and Heath: Lib Dem 382, Lab 356, C 165. (May 2007 -  Two seats Lab unopposed). Lib Dem gain from Lab.

Dave

[afleitch]

North East Derbyshire District - Holmewood and Heath: Lib Dem 382, Lab 356, C 165. (May 2007 -  Two seats Lab unopposed). Lib Dem gain from Lab.

Rule of thumb; never leave a seat unopposed.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's often as bad for the party defending the seat as it is for anyone else; if it happens for more than a few elections then the incumbent councillor or party more or less loses touch with the ward (ie; they've no idea who votes (and for who) in local elections anymore). Happens a lot in Wales and we may get a very good example of that up here this year; Plaid are facing (in the form of Llais Gwynedd) the first serious challenge (in many wards the first non-Plaid candidates) for decades in wards that have been their strongest in Wales, let alone Gwynedd. No one has a clue as to what's going to happen.

[Democratic Hawk]

April 18, 2008

There were two local by-elections held April 11, 2008:

Eden District - Morland: Ind 198, C 108, Lib Dem 74. (May 2007 - C 251, Ind 205). Ind gain from C.

Suffolk County - Stowmarket North and Stowupland: C 834, Lib Dem 781, Green 231, Lab 190, Ukip 114.  (May 2007 - C 1743, Lab 1468, Lib Dem 804, Green 400; June 21 2007 by-election C 628, Lib Dem 431, Lab 317, Green 296, Ukip 185, Ind 132). Con hold.

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

April 26, 2008

The were two local by-elections held April 24, 2008:

Dover District - Little Stour and Ashstone: C 1109, Lib Dem 459, Lab 113. (May 2007 - Three seats C 1424, 1422, 1169, Lib Dem 460, 409, 303, Lab 213, 205, 197). C hold. Swing 5.1% C to Lib Dem.

Hinckley and Bosworth Borough - Hinckley Castle: Lib Dem 802, BNP 264, C 226, Lab 116. (May 2007 - Two seats Lib Dem 1093, 1076, C 405, 388, Lab 133, 131). Lib Dem hold. Swing 0.8% Lib Dem to C.

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

May 4, 2008

I'll report on the most recent polling Sunday. I'm living and breathing local politics right now with the elections for the new County Durham Unitary coming up May 1 - and what a stinking national environment for Labour

Framwellgate Moor is a Labour held division but very marginal (Labour majority 150 over the Lib Dems). Labour have no existing city councillors of the 6 representing the two wards (Bearpark and Witton Gilbert; Framwellgate Moor); while the existing county division has been continuously Labour since 1974. Two councillors will be elected for the new unitary council, however

In fact, as Chairman of Bearpark Parish Council, I'm the second most senior ranking Labour figure in the division; second only to the existing Labour county councillor

Yup, I'm a big fish in a small pond

Dave

Sadly, Labour's incumbent county councillor for Framwellgate Moor, along with the second Labour unitary council candidate, were unsuccessful last Thursday

Results:

Michael Bates (Con) 329

George William Burlison (Lab) 1267

Simon Paul Carey (Ind) 257

Rev Crooks (Lib Dem) 1400 Elected

Terry Moderate (Ind) 626

Ralph Stephen Musgrave (BNP) 285

Mark Wilkes (Lib Dem) 1433 Elected

Marion Wilson (Lab) 1062

Pat Wynne (Con) 244

Composition (by district) of the new unitary authority

Chester-le-Street: Lab 9; Con 3; Ind 2

Derwentside: Lab 11; Lib Dem 1; Derwentside Ind 10

Durham City: Lab 7; Lib Dem 15

Easington: Lab 19; Lib Dem 2; Ind 3

Sedgefield: Lab 14; Lib Dem 3; Con 1; Ind 4

Teesdale: Lab 1; Con 5

Wear Valley: Lab 6; Lib Dem 6; Con 1; Ind 3

Durham: Lab 67; Lib Dem 27; Con 10; Ind 22

Change in Vote in Durham City May 2007 to May 2008

2007:

Lib Dem 13566 (49.10%); Lab 10981 (39.74%); Ind 1727 (6.25%); Con 1166 (4.22%); DTA (0.70%)

2008:

Lib Dem 12313 (40.47%); Lab 9803 (32.22%); Ind 3733 (12.27%); Con 3273 (10.76%); BNP 964 (3.17%); Green 228 (0.75%); DTA (0.36%)

Change:

Lib Dem: -8.63%; Lab -7.52%; Ind +6.02%; Con (+6.54%); BNP (+3.17%); Green (+0.75%); DTA (-0.34%)

Swing 0.555% Lib Dem to Lab

Comment

The good news is that Labour have gained control of the new unitary authority for Durham with an overall majority of 8; the bad news is that the people of the Framwellgate Moor division will no longer have an effective voice, which saddens me

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

I've about as much interest in British politics as this fella



And even he is looking westwards

Dave