Dave Hawk's UK Commentary Thread

[afleitch]

There may, just may be some evidence in the next set of polls that the Conway affair has actually helped the Conservatives (some have been saying this about ICM) They have been seen to be very active in closing down the affair by suspending Conway and subsequently announcing that 70 MP's also employed family members (not a suprise to us politicos) which left Brown playing catch-up.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What's the point of all these General Election polls anyway? It would be nice to get lots and lots of polling done for the London elections; not just Mayor, but GLA as well. And the GLA constituency seats are big enough to avoid some of the problems with constituency polls so even a few of them could be done...

But I guess changes within the MoE sell more papers. Why I don't know...

[afleitch]

But I guess changes within the MoE sell more papers. Why I don't know...

Madeline and pairs of tits (her parents included) sell tabloids. Polls and 'u r stoopid' Independent style headlines and analysis sell broadsheets and give columnists, threatened by online blogs, some feeling of legitimacy.

[Hash]

What's the point of all these General Election polls anyway? It would be nice to get lots and lots of polling done for the London elections; not just Mayor, but GLA as well. And the GLA constituency seats are big enough to avoid some of the problems with constituency polls so even a few of them could be done...

But I guess changes within the MoE sell more papers. Why I don't know...

How many London/GLA polls did they do anyways?

[afleitch]

There may, just may be some evidence in the next set of polls that the Conway affair has actually helped the Conservatives (some have been saying this about ICM) They have been seen to be very active in closing down the affair by suspending Conway and subsequently announcing that 70 MP's also employed family members (not a suprise to us politicos) which left Brown playing catch-up.

Populus CON 40, LAB 31 (-2), LIB 17(-2)

[Silent Hunter]

Breasts sell many a product and have done for decades.

[Democratic Hawk]

February 9, 2007

There were 11 local by-elections held February 7, 2007:

East Lindsey DC, Roughton - Ind 383 (64.0;+20.6), Con 215 (36.0;-7.5), [Lib Dem 0.0; -13.2)].
Majority 168. Turnout 32.7%. Ind gain from Con. Last fought 2007.

Great Yarmouth BC, Bradwell South and Hopton - Con 475 (37.4;-15., Lib Dem 397 (31.2;+31.2), Lab 254 (20.0;-7.9), UKIP 116 (9.1;-9., Green 29 (2.3;+2.3). Majority 78. Turnout not known. Con hold. Last fought 2007.

Hertfordshire CC, Harpenden South West - Con 2161 (66.6;+10.4), Lib Dem 819 (25.3;-0.4), Lab 153 (4.7;-7.2), Green 110 (3.4;-2.. Majority 1342. Turnout 30.2%. Con hold. Last fought 2005.

Lancashire CC, Thornton Cleveleys Central - Con 1536 (48.3;+7.7), Lab 934 (29.4;-6.1), UKIP 489 (15.4;+9.5), Lib Dem 220 (6.9;-11.1). Majority 602. Turnout not known. Con hold. Last fought 2005.

Newcastle-under-Lyme DC, Butt Lane - Lab 295 (35.2;+7.9), Lib Dem 264 (31.5;-8.0), Con 161 (19.2;+10.5), UKIP 117 (14.0;-2.3), [Ind (0.0;-8.2)]. Majority 31. Turnout not known. Lab hold. Last fought 2007.

Portsmouth City Council (UA), Copnor - Lib Dem 1835 (55.8;+38.4), Con 904 (27.5;-18.6), Lab 349 (10.6;-8.2), English Democrats 117 (3.6;-13.6), UKIP 57 (1.7;+1.7), Ind 28 (0.9;+0.9).
Majority 931. Turnout 33.9%. Lib Dem gain from Con. Last fought 2007.

West Devon BC, Tavistock North - Lib Dem 812 (59.3;+33.7), Con 425 (31.0;+4.2), Green 133 (9.7;-5.0), [UKIP (0.0;-12.3)], [Ind (0.0;-20.5)].  Majority 387. Turnout 33.9%. Lib Dem gain from Con. Last fought 2007.

Wiltshire CC, Holt and Paxcroft - Ind 1075 (41.0;+6.7), Lib Dem 994 (37.9;-0.1), Con 458 (17.4;-10.2), Lab 53 (2.0;+2.0), Green 45 (1.7;+1.7).  Majority 81. Turnout 37.0%. Ind gain from Lib Dem. Last fought 2005.

Wiltshire CC, Trowbridge East - Con 1363 (49.2;+17.4), Lib Dem 1176 (42.5;-7.5), Green 229 (8.3;+8.3), [Lab (0.0;-18.2)].  Majority 187. Turnout 19.2%. Con gain from Lib Dem. Last fought 2005.

Wycombe DC, Marlow North and West - Con 928 (61.1;+3.6), Lib Dem 382 (25.1;-8.4), Lab 209 (13.8;+4.9). Majority 546. Turnout 22.6%. Con hold. Last fought 2007.

Wyre DC, Victoria - Con 769 (51.9;-10.1), Lab 339 (22.9;+1.1), BNP 222 (15.0;+15.0), UKIP 151 (10.2;-6.0). Majority 430. Turnout not known. Con hold. Last fought 2007.

Dave (* Different format than usual)

[Democratic Hawk]

There may, just may be some evidence in the next set of polls that the Conway affair has actually helped the Conservatives (some have been saying this about ICM) They have been seen to be very active in closing down the affair by suspending Conway and subsequently announcing that 70 MP's also employed family members (not a suprise to us politicos) which left Brown playing catch-up.

Populus CON 40, LAB 31 (-2), LIB 17(-2)

Yep, that was the only poll this past week:

LAB 31% (-2);CON 40% (+3);LDEM 17% (-2)

Applying a uniform national swing, on the Electoral Calculus, this wouild give the Conservatives 328 seats; Labour 253; the Lib Dems 38 giving the Conservatives an overall majority of 6

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

February 17, 2008

There were four by-elections held February 14, 2008:

East Staffordshire DC, Stretton - Con 661 (36.9;-11.6), Lab 366 (20.4;-7.2), BNP 327 (18.2;+18.2), Popular Alliance 233 (13.0;-10.9), Lib Dem 205 (11.4;+11.4). Majority 295. Turnout 28%. Con hold. Last fought 2007.

Moray Council (UA), Elgin City South - SNP 884 (35.1;+1.9), Ind 845 (33.5;+10.5), Lab 459 (18.2;-10.6), Ind 278 (11.0;+11.0), Con 223 (8.8;-6.3), Lib Dem 53 (2.1;+2.1), Scottish Senior Citizens Unity Party 37 (1.5;+1.5), UKIP 20 (0.8;+0., Ind 16 (0.6;+0.6), Ind 1 (0.0). Majority 39. Turnout 26.8%. SNP gain from Ind. Last fought 2007.

Preston DC, Tulketh - Lab 423 (34.3;-14.6), Lib Dem 400 (32.4;+15.3), Con 292 (23.6;-10.4), Ind 84 (6.8;+6., Green 36 (2.9;+2.9). Majority 23. Turnout 23.0%. Lab hold. Last fought 2007.

Waltham Forest LBC, Leyton - Lib Dem 1360 (56.0;+12., Lab 695 (28.6;-14.1), Ind 176 (7.2;+7.2), Con 108 (4.4;-2.1), Green 90 (3.7;-3.9).  Majority 665. Turnout 27.8%. Lib Dem gain from Lab. Last fought 2006.

There has been one poll published last week [changes on last poll]:

YouGov, Sunday Times, completed February 15:

LAB 32% (-1) / CON 41% (n/c) / LDEM 16% (n/c)

Applying a uniform national swing, on the Electoral Calculus, this would give the Conservatives 336 seats; Labour 256; the Lib Dems 27 giving the Conservatives an overall majority of 22

Comment

The YouGov poll found that:

1) 44% of respondents want to see Alastair Darling removed as Chancellor; 27% think he should stay

2) Cameron/Osborne lead Brown/Darling by 6% on who people would most trust to run the economy

3) 50% of respondents expect their household finances to get worse; while only 12% expect them to get better

Clearly, a lot of pessimism about the management and future of the economy working against Labour right now

Dave

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Waltham Forest LBC, Leyton - Lib Dem 1360 (56.0;+12., Lab 695 (28.6;-14.1), Ind 176 (7.2;+7.2), Con 108 (4.4;-2.1), Green 90 (3.7;-3.9).  Majority 665. Turnout 27.8%. Lib Dem gain from Lab. Last fought 2006.

The less said about the circumstances that triggered this by-election the better. Part of me thinks that we almost deserved to do even worse.

Btw, the Indy wasn't an Indy but a Trot. I think Respect-SWP rather than Respect-Galloway.

[Democratic Hawk]

February 22, 2008

There were three by-elections held February 21, 2008:

Camden London Borough - Fortune Green: Lib Dem 1206, C 551, Lab 405, Green 178. (May 2006 - Three seats Lib Dem 1446, 1187, 1132, C 667, 608, Lab 580, C 576, Lab , 545, 402, Green 354, 305, 291). Lib Dem hold. Swing 2.2% C to Lib Dem.

Corby Borough - Oakley Vale: C 405, Lab 267, Lib Dem 140. (May 2007 - Three seats C 429, 413, 360, Lab 331, 329, 319, Lib Dem 141, Ind 90). C hold. Swing 4.5% Lab to C.

Dartford Borough - Princes: Lab 592, C 348, English Democrats 198, Lib Dem 22, Ukip 19. (May 2007 - Three seats Lab 712, 657, 656, C 428, English Democrats 382, C 363, 362, Ukip 241). Lab hold. Swing 1.7% C to Lab.

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

February 24, 2008

There have been two polls published last week [changes on last poll]:

ICM, The Guardian, completed February 17:

LAB 34% (+2); CON 37% (n/c); LDEM 21% (n/c)

Applying a uniform national swing, on the Electoral Calculus, this would give Labour 303 seats; the Conservatives 263; the Lib Dems 53 with Labour 23 seats short of an overall majority

YouGov, The Economist, completed February 21:

LAB 34% (+2); CON 40% (-1); LIB DEM 16% (n/c)

Applying a uniform national swing, on the Electoral Calculus, this would give the Conservatives 305 seats; Labour 286; the Lib Dems 29 with the Conservatives 21 seats short of an overall majority

Comment

I've seen worse for Labour of late; but these two polls just show the challenge facing the Conservatives to secure a comfortable working majority given that a 3% Conservative lead in the ICM poll sees Labour with 40 more seats (303 to 263); while, YouGov, with a 6% Conservative lead gives the Conservatives only 19 more seats than Labour (305 to 286) - and just 2 seats more than Labour on 34% of the vote in ICM. Much depends, however, on the performance of the Liberal Democrats

Meanwhile, Populus, for The Times , did a snap poll in the wake of the government's nationalisation of troubled mortgage lender Northern Rock, which found that, among other things, that 49% agreed it was right for the government to nationalise it; 40% disagreed

The government will be hoping that this is not the 'Sixteenth Year Glitch', upon which Labour becomes fatally wounded in terms of economic competence, like when Labour became in the wake of the IMF 'crisis' of 1976 and the Conservatives in the wake of the ERM 'crisis' in 1992

Much depends, of course, on how the overall economy performs through 2008

Dave

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Labour wasn't seriously damaged by the IMF loan. Well, not outside the short term. And frankly that doesn't matter.

[Democratic Hawk]

Labour wasn't seriously damaged by the IMF loan. Well, not outside the short term. And frankly that doesn't matter.

Of course, it was more the 'Winter of Discontent'

Dave

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Labour wasn't seriously damaged by the IMF loan. Well, not outside the short term. And frankly that doesn't matter.

Of course, it was more the 'Winter of Discontent'

Dave

And even then the damage didn't last all that long. The direct damage anyway.

[Democratic Hawk]

February 29, 2008

There were four local by-elections held February 28, 2008:

Bromsgrove District - Slideslow: C 372, Ind 317, Lab 304, Ukip 104. (May 2007 - Two seats C 855, Lib Dem 767, C 661, Lib Dem 572, Ind 246). C gain from Lib Dem.

Ellesmere Port and Neston Borough - Westminster: Lab 227, C 123, Lib Dem 45. (May 2007 - Lab 472, C 217). Lab hold. Swing 5.3% Lab to C.

Sutton London Borough - Cheam: C 1541, Lib Dem 1454, Ukip 260, Lab 106. (May 2006 - Three seats C 2251, 2170, 2072, Lib Dem 1535, 1468, 1389, Lab 107, 99, 94). C hold. Swing 8.1% C to Lib Dem.

Tynedale District - Hexham Gilesgate: C 178, Lib Dem 96, Lab 60. (May 2007 - C 311, Lib Dem 91). C hold. Swing 15.1% C to Lib Dem.

Dave

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Tynedale District - Hexham Gilesgate: C 178, Lib Dem 96, Lab 60. (May 2007 - C 311, Lib Dem 91). C hold. Swing 15.1% C to Lib Dem.

Interesting raw figures there. Proves why we should always run at least a paper candidate everywhere.

[Democratic Hawk]

March 2, 2008

There have been two polls published last week [changes on last poll]:

ComRes, The Independent, completed February 24:

LAB 30% (n/c); CON 41% (+3); LDEM 17% (n/c)

Applying a uniform national swing, on the Electoral Calculus, this would give the Conservatives 344 seats; Labour 240; the Lib Dems 35 giving the Conservatives an overall majority of 38

YouGov, Daily Telegraph, completed February 29:

LAB 33% (-1)); CON 40% (n/c); LIB DEM 16% (n/c)

Applying a uniform national swing, on the Electoral Calculus, this would give the Conservatives 313 seats; Labour 277; the Lib Dems 30 with the Conservatives 13 seats short of an overall majority

Comment

As if, I'm not depressed enough

Dave

[The Man From G.O.P.]

Is it just me, or do these polls exist in a time and place where the Tories have actually had to do little in the way of assaulting Labour.... I mean I don't live there but I refresh BBC and the times every 10 seconds, and I watch as many other sources as I can, overall it just seems to me that big loss to Labour is coming, bigger than a hung Parliament, and certainly bigger than the bashing their going to take in May, simply because these poor numbers have come without much prying from Cameron, they've come with big doses of reality, things damaging have just happened to Brown.


Right?

[afleitch]

Is it just me, or do these polls exist in a time and place where the Tories have actually had to do little in the way of assaulting Labour.... I mean I don't live there but I refresh BBC and the times every 10 seconds, and I watch as many other sources as I can, overall it just seems to me that big loss to Labour is coming, bigger than a hung Parliament, and certainly bigger than the bashing their going to take in May, simply because these poor numbers have come without much prying from Cameron, they've come with big doses of reality, things damaging have just happened to Brown.


Right?

Possibly. The swingometer is going to be a little useless and we're going to revert back to old voting patterns (pre 79 in some areas). It's easier for the Tories to win than a straight swing would suggest. Likewise it is easier for Labour to hold on than a straight swing would suggest. I am almost confident enough to predict that the Conservatives will win an outright majority in the next election. It's not a huge sea swell in public opinion like in 1997, it's more like Thatcher's victory in '79; expected, but not inevitable. It's only natural for a government which will be 12-13 years old at the election to run out of steam. If Labour can accept their own decline (and not do what the party did and indeed is still doing in Scotland) they can also stem it.

[The Mikado]

Speaking of the parties...is there any chance that the LibDems won't be smashed in the next election?  (By smashed I mean a significant drop in both percent of their vote and number of seats in Parliament)

[afleitch]

Speaking of the parties...is there any chance that the LibDems won't be smashed in the next election?  (By smashed I mean a significant drop in both percent of their vote and number of seats in Parliament)

Depends. I think their vote share will be down and the seats will be down. The Lib Dems are good at holding their own in some parts of the country. A Labour collapse may see them pick up seats, but at the same time the Tories would take a fair haul from the Lib Dems in such a scenario.

In short - I have no idea. All I can recommend the Lib Dems is don't talk big, our you'll get burnt.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

lolz; Labour have held onto a Warwickshire CC division by one vote. In Rugby apparently. Yes. That seems right; Rugby has always been a bit weird politically.

[Democratic Hawk]

lolz; Labour have held onto a Warwickshire CC division by one vote. In Rugby apparently. Yes. That seems right; Rugby has always been a bit weird politically.

Yep

March 8, 2008

There were two local by-elections held March 6, 2008:

Haringey London Borough - Highgate: Lib Dem 1339, C 725, Lab 241, Ind 190, Green 138. (May 2006 -Three seats Lib Dem 1534, 1523, 1405, C 1163, 1119, 1068, Ind 467, Green 424, Lab 418, 412, Green 349, Lab 347, Green 262). Lib Dem hold. Swing 6.9% C to Lib Dem.

Warwickshire County - Lawford and New Bilton: Lab 724, C 723, BNP 313, Lib Dem 235, Green 148. (May 2005 - Lab 1712, C 1191, Ind 616, Lib Dem 585). Lab hold. Swing 6.3% Lab to C.

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

March 9, 2008

Poll Round-up

There has been one poll released, this week [changes on last poll]:

Ipsos-MORI, completed February 26:

LAB 37% (-1)); COn 39% (+2) ; LDEM 16% (n/c)) [LAB 42% (-1); CON 34% (+1); LDEM 15% (n/c) - 'all naming a party']

Applying a uniform national swing, on the Electoral Calculus, this would give Labour 326 seats; the Conservatives 267; the Lib Dems 29 giving Labour an overall majority of 2

Comment

Among 'all voters naming a party', any general election result on those figures would see Labour returned with an overall majority of 124 but it ain't gonna happen!

Incidentally, the fieldwork for Ipsos-MORI's February political monitor was completed before last weeks YouGov, which gave the Conservatives a lead of 7% over Labour (40-33)

Dave