Papal Conclave of 2025

[Tintrlvr]

Assuming there’s black smoke, will there be another vote today?

No.

Only one vote today, then four votes per day (two in the morning, two in the afternoon) until there is a Pope.

[MaxQue]

Assuming there’s black smoke, will there be another vote today?

No.

Only one vote today, then four votes per day (two in the morning, two in the afternoon) until there is a Pope.

There is breaks for reflection and prayer on Sunday the 11th, Wednesday the 14th and Saturday the 17th, I think.

[Tintrlvr]

Assuming there’s black smoke, will there be another vote today?

No.

Only one vote today, then four votes per day (two in the morning, two in the afternoon) until there is a Pope.

There is breaks for reflection and prayer on Sunday the 11th, Wednesday the 14th and Saturday the 17th, I think.

Unlikely we make it to the 11th and almost certain that we don't make it to the 14th, but yes.

[Darthpi - Crush the Oligarchy]

Seagull truly the star of the show.

[Illiniwek]

Cmon, I need to go grab some lunch.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's an unusually large Conclave and most of its members are newbies. This is not surprising.

[Darthpi - Crush the Oligarchy]

We're going to need a spotlight on the chimney if this goes too much longer.

[Paleobrazilian]

It's an unusually large Conclave and most of its members are newbies. This is not surprising.

The conspiracy theories about the delay are going to be awesome to read.

[Tintrlvr]

It's an unusually large Conclave and most of its members are newbies. This is not surprising.

The conspiracy theories about the delay are going to be awesome to read.

Zombie Giuseppe Siri has been elected Pope!

[soundchaser]

It's an unusually large Conclave and most of its members are newbies. This is not surprising.

Considering how many of the cardinals were struggling with the Latin earlier...

[Darthpi - Crush the Oligarchy]

It's an unusually large Conclave and most of its members are newbies. This is not surprising.

Considering how many of the cardinals were struggling with the Latin earlier...

And some people want to bring back the Tridentine Mass, lol

[Flo 2.0]

The seagull is back!

[Darthpi - Crush the Oligarchy]

Maybe someone sealed off the chimney so they could hotbox the place before they vote.

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

If we don't get a Pope on the first ballot than Tagle's hopes will have gone up in smoke.

[Darthpi - Crush the Oligarchy]

Black smoke

[Dereich]

Try again tomorrow.

[soundchaser]

Nothing surprising - see y'all tomorrow!

[Illiniwek]

We'll get 'em tomorrow.

[Tintrlvr]

If we don't get a Pope on the first ballot than Tagle's hopes will have gone up in smoke.

Really not true. First ballot is just indicative voting; everyone votes for their first choice candidate, expected to be highly fractured. It would be surprising if a candidate had a simple majority, let alone a two-thirds majority, on the first ballot. The second ballot is where things get serious, as cardinals supporting candidates who only got a few votes on the first ballot rearrange themselves, and the top three to five or so candidates and their proxies jockey for support.

For example, if Tagle really is the consensus candidate of the Asian cardinals and has meaningful support elsewhere to the point of ultimately being elected, I'd expect he would have gotten maybe 40-50 votes in the first round and be the highest vote-getter but far short of being elected.

[Darthpi - Crush the Oligarchy]

We'll get 'em tomorrow.

If there's a result 24 hours from now, I would think it's probably one of the two who have gotten the most discussion here. If it goes beyond that, it's much less clear.

I know that's just boring conventional wisdom, but it's boring conventional wisdom that seems correct to me.

[Paleobrazilian]

Next smoke should be visible around noon CEST - unless a Pope is elected on 2nd ballot, which is surely unlikely. In such scenario, white smoke would be visible around 10:30 CEST.

[Tintrlvr]

We'll get 'em tomorrow.

If there's a result 24 hours from now, I would think it's probably one of the two who have gotten the most discussion here. If it goes beyond that, it's much less clear.

I know that's just boring conventional wisdom, but it's boring conventional wisdom that seems correct to me.

Bergoglio last time was elected on the fifth ballot (on day 2) and was barely discussed at all in our Conclave 2013 thread before the conclave, although we did extensively discuss the other two purported front-runners that time, Scola and Ouellet. We really don't know that much.

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

If we don't get a Pope on the first ballot than Tagle's hopes will have gone up in smoke.

Really not true. First ballot is just indicative voting; everyone votes for their first choice candidate, expected to be highly fractured. It would be surprising if a candidate had a simple majority, let alone a two-thirds majority, on the first ballot. The second ballot is where things get serious, as cardinals supporting candidates who only got a few votes on the first ballot rearrange themselves, and the top three to five or so candidates and their proxies jockey for support.

For example, if Tagle really is the consensus candidate of the Asian cardinals and has meaningful support elsewhere to the point of ultimately being elected, I'd expect he would have gotten maybe 40-50 votes in the first round and be the highest vote-getter but far short of being elected.

I was making a silly pun about smoke and using Tagle as a vehicle for it. Point well-taken.

[Oryxslayer]

If we don't get a Pope on the first ballot than Tagle's hopes will have gone up in smoke.

Really not true. First ballot is just indicative voting; everyone votes for their first choice candidate, expected to be highly fractured. It would be surprising if a candidate had a simple majority, let alone a two-thirds majority, on the first ballot. The second ballot is where things get serious, as cardinals supporting candidates who only got a few votes on the first ballot rearrange themselves, and the top three to five or so candidates and their proxies jockey for support.

Or alternatively, someone starts with so much support on ballot 1 that the question for the next rounds is whether then can close the deal or he gets rejected - and if the latter then we circle back to the 3-5 situation.

[Flo 2.0]

Do we get to see the papal vote totals before the new pope is elected, after the pope is elected, or is there some third option I'm not thinking of?