Papal Conclave of 2025

[soundchaser]

The low angle shot of everyone vacating had a real “surprise witnesses” vibe to it:

[Tokugawa Sexgod Ieyasu]

The low angle shot of everyone vacating had a real “surprise witnesses” vibe to it:

Each more surprising than the last!

[Oryxslayer]

SNIP

Since others are now posting their predictions, I'll just TLDR mine for those who have not been in the thread regularly. Click the link to the post above for the big long post on my thoughts.

If there is a decision tomorrow, or by some miracle - today, it's Tagle. I had thought maybe Gerch, if Tagle's not willing, but I think it's clear he's making a play.

If 6+ ballots are needed then it's a European with a Global Presence and some internal compromises. Pizzaballa, López Romero, Tolentino de Mendonça, Aveline, or Gerch.

If 10+ ballots then despite all earlier rumors the (likely Right-leaning) minority has >1/3 of votes and has put it's foot down for anyone not from them. The choice still won't be from their group, but it will probably be a surprise pick of someone who can peel away a few folks from that hardline 1/3.

Obviously 1-5 is more likely than 6-10, which is immensely more likely than 10+.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Roche's Latin is quite good for the architect of the Latin Mass restrictions.

Curiosity makes me ask: does Nichols's Latin have a distinct Liverpudlian twang or not?

[Tokugawa Sexgod Ieyasu]

SNIP

Since others are now posting their predictions, I'll just TLDR mine for those who have not been in the thread regularly. Click the link to the post above for the big long post on my thoughts.

If there is a decision tomorrow, or by some miracle - today, it's Tagle. I had thought maybe Gerch, if Tagle's not willing, but I think it's clear he's making a play.

If 6+ ballots are needed then it's a European with a Global Presence and some internal compromises. Pizzaballa, López Romero, Tolentino de Mendonça, Aveline, or Gerch.

If 10+ ballots then despite all earlier rumors the (likely Right-leaning) minority has >1/3 of votes and has put it's foot down for anyone not from them. The choice still won't be from their group, but it will probably be a surprise pick of someone who can peel away a few folks from that hardline 1/3.

Obviously 1-5 is more likely than 6-10, which is immensely more likely than 10+.

I'm pretty sure 6-10 is the current widespread expectation, although I agree with you in that I think it could end up being unexpectedly quick (2005 and 2013 both were).

[Joseph Cao]

Francis (Malaysia) immediately followed by Chow (Hong Kong) in the queue was far too targeted at me specifically to not be a divine signal of some kind, if you ask me.

[Aurelius2]

I'm impressed that the folks on this thread have been able to find so much insider info, scuttlebutt around major players, and the like. My impression was that the whole process is totally opaque.

My one hot take is that Parolin is being overestimated as a papabile. I think the China investiture situation will hurt him.

[You get arrested just for saying you're Polish these days]

The YouTube chat is revealing a LOT about e-trad priorities. Every time a black cardinal comes up and swears the oath they start talking about Sarah.

Online trad Caths remain entirely in it for extra-theological and aesthetic reasons. (I’m sympathetic to the latter.)

In this case it's more the obvious racial profiling that gets to me than anything else.

The hunt for a black man who'll pat them on the back and tell them the libs are the real racists continues.

[Paleobrazilian]

Corriere della Sera sees Grech and Filoni with some momentum as the Conclave starts.

[DanY98]

I have seen nothing to indicate Tagle beyond wishful thinking so I predict what he will NOT be.

[Illiniwek]

Its tough, Tagle both seems like the most obvious choice, but at the same time perhaps he is the too obvious option. My shortlist of less obvious choices will be Pizzaballa, Aveline, Pizzaballa, and López Romero.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Would be fantastic if the Chimney technicians do a Warren Beatty/Faye Dunaway.

[Darthpi - Crush the Oligarchy]

Question for anyone here who has followed prior conclaves closely: how long does it normally take between the doors being locked and the ballots being counted and burned?

[Paleobrazilian]

Question for anyone here who has followed prior conclaves closely: how long does it normally take between the doors being locked and the ballots being counted and burned?

1st ballot should take a bit longer because they'll first have to sort who'll count, who'll recount and the administrative stuff, plus there should be a bunch of scattered votes. Anyway, we should get black smoke soon (around 20:00 CEST).

[Tokugawa Sexgod Ieyasu]

Corriere della Sera sees Grech and Filoni with some momentum as the Conclave starts.

Filoni lmao oh my God. Keep dreaming.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Would be fantastic if the Chimney technicians do a Warren Beatty/Faye Dunaway.

Happened in 1958.

[Atlas Force]

Would be fantastic if the Chimney technicians do a Warren Beatty/Faye Dunaway.

Happened in 1958.

Of course there’s conspiracy theories about this, with the usual targets of blame too:

The source of the threats has been variously identified as Jews and Freemasons, or the Soviet Union.

[Illiniwek]

Question for anyone here who has followed prior conclaves closely: how long does it normally take between the doors being locked and the ballots being counted and burned?

This doesn't answer your question directly. But the smoke could rise today at any moment now based on previous first votes.

[Darthpi - Crush the Oligarchy]

It's a little bit funny to me how many different camera angles on the chimney that livestream has. The one where everything is silhouetted so as to be completely useless in telling if the smoke is white or black (almost certainly the latter for the first day) is particularly special.

[Paleobrazilian]

That seagull is anxiously waiting for the smoke.

[soundchaser]

Goodbye, seagull on the roof. For a brief moment, you could have been Pope.

[Darthpi - Crush the Oligarchy]

Goodbye, seagull on the roof. For a brief moment, you could have been Pope.

If it was a dove we could have a Pope Fabian II.

[Not Me, Us]

Assuming there’s black smoke, will there be another vote today?

[Paleobrazilian]

Assuming there’s black smoke, will there be another vote today?

No.

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

Calling it now. After 20 ballots a seagull will be elected. It will take the name of Penna I.