Papal Conclave of 2025

[Oryxslayer]

SNIP tweet

It wouldn't surprise me if the White House panders to sedevacantism.

It's honestly impressive how long it took for Viganò to get excommunicated, all things considered. It was a full three years between him calling Francis a "non-Catholic pope" and the trial for schism.

I did say earlier and I repeat the notion that there are players on the board who could push this past the protest of Sedevacantism to something more. Trump only believes in himself and cares little for non-Americans, so if he's pushed by political Trad Catholic Vance - who is in turn pushed by American Christian Conservatives and therefore evangelic Protestantism, things may rapidly escalate. If these guys and their very few Cardinal allies decide the Bergolgian mood currently ascendent to have violated procedure and call for a new election for a (anti)Pope, whose to say Trump wouldn't give it his approval? And that's how things start to spiral, if the trads decide to take a very historical approach to their grievances.

[Paleobrazilian]

Since we're close to the beginning of the Conclave, it's also useful to remember what the Habemus Papam speech will look like:

Eminentissimum ac Reverendissimum Dominum,
Dominum [first name]
Sanctae Romanae Ecclesiae Cardinalem [surname]
qui sibi nomen imposuit [papal name].

The first name of the elected will be delivered in Latin and in the accusative case, so most people will probably only recognize who was elected after his surname is mentioned. As for the Papal name, it will also be delivered in Latin, and it may be delivered in the accusative or the genitive case (there's precedent for both). If it's an old name, there's also precedent for both saying and not saying the number.

I tried to work my Latin around the names of some papabili to see how they would be spelled if they're chosen and that's what I got:

Parolin, Turkson, Erdo: Petrum
Pizzaballa: Petrum Baptistam
Tagle: Ludovicum Antonium
Aveline: Ioannem Marcum
Grech: Marium
Zuppi: Matthaeum
Besungu: Fridolinum (?)
Prevost: Robertum Franciscum
David: Paulum Virgilium

As for the name of the new Pope, I'm expecting Paul VII or Francis II but I could see John XXIV being chosen as well.

BTW, the speech will be delivered by French Cardinal Mamberti - unless, of course, Mamberti is chosen as the new Pope.

[Tokugawa Sexgod Ieyasu]

Ambongo would be Fridolinum, yes. Fridolin is actually a very old saint's name, but not one that's currently common in the West.

I went through every voting cardinal a few days ago and the only one whose Latin accusative first name is genuinely unclear to me is Langlois. Even Soane Mafi's first name is a Tongan version of John. There are a lot of Iosephums, Ioannems, Petrums, and Franciscums, and also several Robertums, Iacobums, and Carolums.

[Kamala-Tim 2024]

Ambongo would be Fridolinum, yes. Fridolin is actually a very old saint's name, but not one that's currently common in the West.

I went through every voting cardinal a few days ago and the only one whose Latin accusative first name is genuinely unclear to me is Langlois. Even Soane Mafi's first name is a Tongan version of John. There are a lot of Iosephums, Ioannems, Petrums, and Franciscums, and also several Robertums, Iacobums, and Carolums.

Chiblium, obviously.

[buritobr]

If I bet for someone, I would choose Odilo Scherer. I believe he will win. He is not mentioned in the list of favorites. He is not considered even the Brazilian who has higher probability. But all the conclaves, except 2005, had upsets. There is a cliche which says: "the one who enters in the Chapel as a pope leaves as a cardinal". Odilo Scherer is 75 and we saw in 2005 and 2013 a preference for someone close to 80, in order to avoid a too long term. Since he is a soft conservative, he can be a compromise solution. The pundits say "two Latin American popes in a sequence is impossible", but sometimes pundits are wrong. In 2005, some pundits said "After 26 years of a Polish pope, the Italians won't allow a non-Italian". In 2013, some pundits said "After 26 years of a Polish pope and 8 years of a German pope, the Italians won't allow a non-Italian".

[Paleobrazilian]

Ambongo would be Fridolinum, yes. Fridolin is actually a very old saint's name, but not one that's currently common in the West.

I went through every voting cardinal a few days ago and the only one whose Latin accusative first name is genuinely unclear to me is Langlois. Even Soane Mafi's first name is a Tongan version of John. There are a lot of Iosephums, Ioannems, Petrums, and Franciscums, and also several Robertums, Iacobums, and Carolums.

It's a shame Kikuchi adopted a Western name, a Latin version of Isao would be dope.

[Tokugawa Sexgod Ieyasu]

A soft conservative is not a compromise candidate in this conclave. People really need to get out of this 2005/2013 mindset with this.

[All aboard the Carney-val]

https://collegeofcardinalsreport.com/

Obvious election interference is obvious. The people behind this are apparently ignorant of centuries of suspicion of temporal influence on the Conclave. Or, maybe this will be the third election in two weeks that was negatively polarized by anti-orange sentiment.

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

In 2005, some pundits said "After 26 years of a Polish pope, the Italians won't allow a non-Italian". In 2013, some pundits said "After 26 years of a Polish pope and 8 years of a German pope, the Italians won't allow a non-Italian".

To be fair, Pope Francis was Italian. He was just born in Argentina.

[25 Abril/Aprile Sempre!]

Simone also provided this gem (both this conversation and the one I had with Alfie happened on Discord):

The far-left has a mostly flat vote outside of the farthest reaches of the peripheries where it is very weak, in contrast to the centre-left which landslides in the historic centre and even puts up respectable scores in the rich "Anglosphere" neighbourhoods (but also gets trounced in the African peripheries). A weakened right-wing still has its best result in the aforementioned Anglosphere, while the transversal party Manycardinals For Synodality (M4S), in spite of being almost inexistent in the areas where the pundit class comes from, holds a lot of sway in the residential "Latin America" belt and even more so in Africa where it wins in a landslide.

I'm going to be thinking about Manycardinals For Synodality (M4S) on and off for the rest of my life.

I should point out that this gem was inspired by a chart posted by Nathan and made by him and Antonio which showed the proportion of Cardinals belonging to different factions (Bergogliano, "periphery", conservative etc.) for each major geographic region in the world, not something I came up with out of the blue.

[CheapDollarEra?]

It won't No matter who wins, I expect Latin America to continue becoming more evangelical and Europe/Africa to continue to become more muslim.

[Paleobrazilian]

Well, Scherer can surely win, and if he does so, I'll be the first to eat my slice of humble pie, but the odds of that happening, for all aforementioned reasons, are certainly low. The one Latin American Cardinal I could see as a potential surprise is Aguilar Retes, but even that is a long shot under the current mood. The problem with Latin American Cardinals, besides the vague idea of a continent rotation, is that most Latin American Cardinals are too similar to Francis in style. Actually, the leading candidate among Latin American Cardinals is not even a Latin American - it's an American who spent much of his career in Peru.

[Atlas Force]

If Prevost somehow wins it’s going to be quite the experience to watch him inevitably make a big show out of distancing himself from the current administration as much as possible starting on Day One - basically the exact opposite of what JFK had to go through!

[Paleobrazilian]

If Prevost somehow wins it’s going to be quite the experience to watch him inevitably make a big show out of distancing himself from the current administration as much as possible starting on Day One - basically the exact opposite of what JFK had to go through!

He might have taken some notes on that from Francis, who successfully dodged 4 Argentinian Presidents who tried to use him for political gain in his 12 years as Pope!

[buritobr]

In 2005, some pundits said "After 26 years of a Polish pope, the Italians won't allow a non-Italian". In 2013, some pundits said "After 26 years of a Polish pope and 8 years of a German pope, the Italians won't allow a non-Italian".

To be fair, Pope Francis was Italian. He was just born in Argentina.

We usually hear that Francis was the "first non European pope in 1300 years". We could say just that Francis was the "first non European pope". The other non European popes came from the Middle East and North Africa, which were part of the Roman world, and so, we could say that they were part of the European world.

But since Bergoglio has close Italian ancestry and Italy recognizes nationality by blood, we could say that he was Italian, and so, European. But as far as I know, he didn't have Italian passport.

[Tokugawa Sexgod Ieyasu]

This might be bloomerism, but I actually do kinda believe that my darling boy Kikuchi has someone who can rival or exceed Parolin on the first ballot tomorrow/tonight. Parolin has been getting less inevitable these days.

https://collegeofcardinalsreport.com/

Obvious election interference is obvious. The people behind this are apparently ignorant of centuries of suspicion of temporal influence on the Conclave. Or, maybe this will be the third election in two weeks that was negatively polarized by anti-orange sentiment.

We've been using CCR a lot in this thread because it's factually accurate and the slant is obvious enough for us to correct for it, but knowing that it's one and the same with that dossier that was getting handed out to the cardinals recontextualizes the whole thing in a much more sinister light. I'm 99% sure it'll backfire, because the cardinals who admit to being familiar with it (do Carmo da Silva, Gracias (a non-elector), and an anonymous probably-Brazilian cardinal discussed a page or two back in this thread) do not take it seriously, and even if they did, these people were not born yesterday and the slant that is obvious to us will be just as obvious, or even more obvious, to them.
 

[Vosem]

Ambongo would be Fridolinum, yes. Fridolin is actually a very old saint's name, but not one that's currently common in the West.

I went through every voting cardinal a few days ago and the only one whose Latin accusative first name is genuinely unclear to me is Langlois. Even Soane Mafi's first name is a Tongan version of John. There are a lot of Iosephums, Ioannems, Petrums, and Franciscums, and also several Robertums, Iacobums, and Carolums.

It's a shame Kikuchi adopted a Western name, a Latin version of Isao would be dope.

I thought this was a Portuguese rendering of Isaias at first -- but, no, apparently it's Japanese. I do wonder if they would say "Isaiam" or some sort of neologism -- the post a few above this one notes that there are multiple "Robertum"s, but at one time any Germanic name would probably have been strange; I would guess the earliest names are Latinate or Hellenic or Semitic.

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/ccadelago/status/1919922159759294581

[Darthpi - Crush the Oligarchy]

https://twitter.com/ccadelago/status/1919922159759294581

That's amazing, but still not quite as amazing as the one person in the Vatican who bought Cult of the Lamb after Pope Francis died: https://www.thegamer.com/cult-of-the-lamb-copy-sold-steam-vatican-city-before-pope-francis-funeral/

[seeking mystical annihilation]

RIP Jean Baudrillard you woulda loved Conclave

[Jumped off the American Sinking Ship]

https://twitter.com/ccadelago/status/1919922159759294581

That's amazing, but still not quite as amazing as the one person in the Vatican who bought Cult of the Lamb after Pope Francis died: https://www.thegamer.com/cult-of-the-lamb-copy-sold-steam-vatican-city-before-pope-francis-funeral/

what about Pope Francis listening to a jazz version of Megalovania

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

https://twitter.com/ccadelago/status/1919922159759294581

That's amazing, but still not quite as amazing as the one person in the Vatican who bought Cult of the Lamb after Pope Francis died: https://www.thegamer.com/cult-of-the-lamb-copy-sold-steam-vatican-city-before-pope-francis-funeral/

There's a chance it isn't as interesting as it sounds, that is it could be a  Swiss Guard buying a game for their child.

[afleitch]

https://twitter.com/ccadelago/status/1919922159759294581

Obviously, I can't spoil the ending, but if that 'pills' a few Cardinals that would be something.

[Oryxslayer]

SNIP movie tweet

If true, it confirms a good deal of things we have been suspecting, that the fact these guys have never played the game before is driving events. The rumor mill has been in full swing for certain candidates because they can't control their front. Why certain groups think public pressure or social media can actually influence decisions. Why an American may have a non-zero chance.


However, I think the biggest tea leaf is that Tagle now seems even more well positioned, because He has actually been here before. The silence around him now smells very much like professionalism and a coordinated push.

[afleitch]

It hadn't crossed by mind that, like the rest of the world since 2013, the Conclave might also succumb to 'online Boomer' tendencies. I don't think that means anything ideological, but it might mean, as you say, triangulation from the continuity side.