NM: Sen. Pete Domenici (R) to Retire Next Year

[Frodo]

Sen. Pete Domenici Expected to Retire

Veteran Sen. Pete Domenici (R-N.M.) is expected to announce tomorrow that he will retire from the Senate in 2008, according to several informed sources, a decision that further complicates an already difficult playing field for Republicans next November.

Domenici has struggled with health problems over the last several years and has been dogged by questions about the role he may have played in the firing of U.S. Attorney David C. Iglesias in Albuquerque. As a result, he had been long been rumored as a potential retirement. Domenici's Senate office did not return a call this afternoon, but sources close to the senator say he will fly home to New Mexico tomorrow to make the announcement that he is retiring.

The six-term senator joins Republican Sens. John Warner (Va.), Chuck Hagel (Neb.) and Wayne Allard (Colo.) on the sidelines for 2008.

The most likely candidates on the Republican side are Reps. Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce. Several Democrats are mentioned including Rep. Tom Udall, Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez, Lt. Gov. Diane Denish and former state Attorney General Patricia Madrid. The dream candidate for Democrats is Gov. Bill Richardson but his advisers insist he is not interested and focused on the 2008 presidential race. Wealthy businessman Don Wiviott is already in the race and has put several hundred thousand dollars of hiw own money into the bid.

[minionofmidas]

Go Chavez!

[Kaine for Senate '18]

This could have presidential influence, too.  If Richardson does poorly in NH and IA he could run for this seat.  I also think this gives us a good shot at taking this seat as well.

[Conan]

Hasnt Richardson been encouraging Chavez to run?

[MarkWarner08]

GOP's negative feedback loop continues.

[MarkWarner08]

Other thoughts: Heather Wilson is set to announce her Senate run.

Looks like the Dems may win the Senate seat and NM-01.

[Verily]

Hasnt Richardson been encouraging Chavez to run?

If Heather Wilson goes for the Senate seat, Chavez may decide her House seat is a safer bet, which would open the door for Richardson to move into the Senate race after the early primaries.

[MarkWarner08]

Hasnt Richardson been encouraging Chavez to run?

If Heather Wilson goes for the Senate seat, Chavez may decide her House seat is a safer bet, which would open the door for Richardson to move into the Senate race after the early primaries.

Will the Democrats find a placeholder candidate until Richardson runs? Will Udall finally take the plunge? Will the Democrats lose another top VP candidate to the allure of the U.S Senate?

Looks like another thrilling year of Senate elections!

[MarkWarner08]

Is Ted Stevens next?

[HappyWarrior]

Go Chavez!

Go Hugo!

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Lets hope so.  Then Mike Gravel can return to the Senate

[MAS117]

Great news, this is definitely another potential pickup for Democrats. There are a lot of great potential candidates here.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Is Ted Stevens next?

Stevens doesn't matter as much, because Alaska is safely Republican.  New Mexico, on the other hand, is a lot like New England in the sense that they only vote GOP because of popular incumbents.  Once the incumbet retires, the Democrats gain the seat.

[Aizen]

This will be a good race. Looks like the GOP will be forced to heavily defend another seat.

[Aizen]

Is Ted Stevens next?

Stevens doesn't matter as much, because Alaska is safely Republican.  New Mexico, on the other hand, is a lot like New England in the sense that they only vote GOP because of popular incumbents.  Once the incumbet retires, the Democrats gain the seat.

I don't know if comparing NM to New England is exactly a fair comparison. The state is pretty damn close so logically speaking and looking at the potential candidates, it should be a barnburner race.

[Jake]

New Mexico, on the other hand, is a lot like New England in the sense that they only vote GOP because of popular incumbents.  Once the incumbet retires, the Democrats gain the seat.

That's not true at all. New Mexico is split almost exactly down the middle partisan wise.

Rep. Joe Skeen (R) retired in 2002; replaced by Pearce (R)
Rep. Steve Schiff (R) died in 1998; replaced by Wilson (R)

[Smash255]

Huge pickup opportunity for the Dems, Safe dem gain if Richardson goes for the seat.

[Verily]

New Mexico, on the other hand, is a lot like New England in the sense that they only vote GOP because of popular incumbents.  Once the incumbet retires, the Democrats gain the seat.

That's not true at all. New Mexico is split almost exactly down the middle partisan wise.

Rep. Joe Skeen (R) retired in 2002; replaced by Pearce (R)
Rep. Steve Schiff (R) died in 1998; replaced by Wilson (R)

At the state level, at least, the Democrats are overwhelmingly dominant. Veto-proof majority in the House, with approximately the same ratios as California.

[Wiz in Wis]

If Richardson were to run for the Senate, its over. If Wilson runs, she risks her congressional seat and has probably less than a 50% shot at winning the senate seat. Pearce is the Republicans best hope.

The Dem bench is deep here though.. real deep.

D+1

[Jake]

At the state level, at least, the Democrats are overwhelmingly dominant. Veto-proof majority in the House, with approximately the same ratios as California.

That would be relevant if not for the 17th amendment.

[Verily]

At the state level, at least, the Democrats are overwhelmingly dominant. Veto-proof majority in the House, with approximately the same ratios as California.

That would be relevant if not for the 17th amendment.

My point is that the Democrats have a much deeper bench than the Republicans in New Mexico, so they're much more able to provide good candidates for multiple races at once than the Republicans.

[Jake]

I won't disagree with that. However, without Bill Richardson in the race the Republicans have two candidates (Pearce & Wilson) at least as good as the top two Democrats (Udall & Chavez). I also never disagreed that they are likely to lose the seat one of those Reps give up.

[Mr.Phips]

If Wilson runs for this seat, Democrats almost certainly pick up her House seat. 

[Sam Spade]

Obviously, if Bill Richardson were to run, he would most likely win.

On the GOP side:

If that doesn't happen, Wilson and Pearce are likely as strong as Udall, but for different reasons.

The real question for the GOP is whether Wilson and Pearce will duke it out mano y mano in the primary or agree to solidify behind one candidate or the other.

Pearce's district is the infamous Little Texas portion of New Mexico (with other parts added).  In the past, the district would often elect conservative Democrats and Pearce has a fairly strong opponent this year (I forget his name).  Still, if Pearce were to leave, the GOP bench is fairly strong in that area of the world and the district is favorable for them at this point, but probably only Lean R.  Pearce was pretty impressive last year all the while everyone else was getting creamed.

Wilson's CD is talked about so much I'll leave it for now.  Maybe the Dems can finally win over that seat for the first time since it was created.  There are legitimate Republican candidates there (Bernadillo County Sheriff Darren White is one that pops to mind immediately) - history is on their side, if anything is.

On the Dem side:

Denish and Chavez appeared in the past to be gearing up for Governor runs in 2010.  I think Chavez is weaker there and more likely to switch to Senate or NM-01, but the Dem field in NM-01 is already pretty crowded.  Chavez is likely as strong as Udall, and would probably cause more problems for Wilson than Pearce (I suspect).  I read that Patty Madrid might be considering a run - Republicans can hope that it's her.

The dangers for the NM Dems in NM-01 has never been the quality of the bench, but rather that the biggest machine-hack Dem politician (insert name) always seems to be the candidate to get out of the highly contested primary for that seat.  That turns off the Albuquerque Democrats who lean somewhat Independent anyway, especially when faced with a center-right Republican.  If WMS hadn't been driven out of here, he'd tell y'all this.

NM-02 can be won by a Democrat as well - and I think they already have a good candidate that I mentioned earlier.  In fact, I already mentioned the race earlier, no need to now. 

[Lief 🗽]

Wow. So, let's add NM to the potential list of:

VA, CO, ME, NH, MN, OR, NE, AK, NC, KY.

Nice.

[TheresNoMoney]

Yeah baby!