1988: Bush/Baker (R) vs. Gore/Tsongas (D)

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Let's suppose in 1988, Senator Al Gore of Tennessee manages to win the 1988 Democratic Nomination after his upset win in the New York Primary. Senator Gore is able to continue his momentum all the way to the Democratic Convention in Atlanta, where he is nominated on the first ballot. For Vice President, Senator Gore selects former Senator Paul Tsongas of Massachusetts.

Whilst on the Republican side, Vice President George H.W. Bush is wins the Republican Nomination after rebounding from his shock finish in the Iowa Caucus, behind Senator Bob Dole and Reverand Pat Robertson. However unlike in RL, Vice President Bush decides against selecting Senator Dan Quayle of Indiana to be his running mate. VP Bush decides to select Secretary of the Treasury James A. Baker.

How would this election turn out? Discuss with maps.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Gore/Tsongas: 52% PV 289 EV
Bush/Baker: 48% PV 249 EV

[Robespierre's Jaw]

George H.W. Bush/James A. Baker (R): 325 EV, 52.8%
Albert A. Gore Jnr/Paul Tsongas (D): 213 EV, 47.0%
Others (Libertarians, ect): 0 EV, 0.2%

[CPT MikeyMike]

Wasn't Baker from Texas to begin with?

Anyhow, minus that, Bush wins. Gore is seen as too young and inexperienced plus the Reagan's support would put Bush over the top. However, it would be closer than real life 1988.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Wasn't Baker from Texas to begin with?

Yes he is. I'm sorry about that MikeyMike. Instead of Bush selecting Secretary of the Treasury, Vice President Bush selects Governor of California George Deukmejian.

[CPT MikeyMike]

Wasn't Baker from Texas to begin with?

Yes he is. I'm sorry about that MikeyMike. Instead of Bush selecting Secretary of the Treasury, Vice President Bush selects Governor of California George Deukmejian.

See my last post minus Baker on the ticket.

Gore/Tsongas: 52% PV 289 EV
Bush/Baker: 48% PV 249 EV

Can you explain your reasoning? Honestly, about 90% of your maps make no sense to me!

[Lincoln Republican]

Bush wants his old friend Jim Baker, Secretary of the Treasury, to be his Vice President.  Since both Bush and Baker have their home state as Texas, Baker and his wife purchase a home and take up residence in fashionable and expensive Loudoun County, Virginia, in the Washington DC suburbs.  Baker therefore declares his home state as Virginia.

In 1988, Gore is very young, and is not viewed by the public in general as experienced enough nor prepared enough for the challenges and responsibilities of the Presidency.  The public is as well uneasy with the fact the Gore's Vice Presidential pick, Senator Paul Tsongas, had been diagnosed with cancer in 1983.

The nation goes with the more mature and much more experienced ticket of Bush and Baker.       

Bush/Baker          309
Gore/Tsongas      229

[Verily]

Wasn't Baker from Texas to begin with?

Yes he is. I'm sorry about that MikeyMike. Instead of Bush selecting Secretary of the Treasury, Vice President Bush selects Governor of California George Deukmejian.

Bush could always just change his residency to Maine or Connecticut, where he also owned homes.

[Reignman]

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[gorkay]

I wouldn't have recommended that Bush try to do an end run around the Constitution by claiming residence in a state other than Texas. For one thing, it wouldn't have gone over too well in Texas; for another, it would have made him seem less than honest to the rest of the country. Thirdly, I wouldn't think it a good idea for Bush to remind the public of how many houses he owned. The residence issue was one of the reasons the Reagan/Ford deal fell apart at the 1980 Republican convention. Ford lived in California at the time, and he would have had to claim residence somewhere else to be eligible for the ticket. Some of their advisers were afraid it would make it look as if they were playing fast and loose with the Constitution.

[Lincoln Republican]

I wouldn't have recommended that Bush try to do an end run around the Constitution by claiming residence in a state other than Texas. For one thing, it wouldn't have gone over too well in Texas; for another, it would have made him seem less than honest to the rest of the country. Thirdly, I wouldn't think it a good idea for Bush to remind the public of how many houses he owned. The residence issue was one of the reasons the Reagan/Ford deal fell apart at the 1980 Republican convention. Ford lived in California at the time, and he would have had to claim residence somewhere else to be eligible for the ticket. Some of their advisers were afraid it would make it look as if they were playing fast and loose with the Constitution.

Ford and his team were playing fast and loose with the constitution at the 1980 Republican National Convention, when they laid down their insane demand that for Ford to run as Vice President, he wanted assurances for what virtually amounted to a "Co-Presidency".

Thank goodness Reagan and his team realized before it was too late that Ford would have been an absolutely abysmal choice, and decided to go with a much better candidate, George Bush. 

[gorkay]

I wouldn't have recommended that Bush try to do an end run around the Constitution by claiming residence in a state other than Texas. For one thing, it wouldn't have gone over too well in Texas; for another, it would have made him seem less than honest to the rest of the country. Thirdly, I wouldn't think it a good idea for Bush to remind the public of how many houses he owned. The residence issue was one of the reasons the Reagan/Ford deal fell apart at the 1980 Republican convention. Ford lived in California at the time, and he would have had to claim residence somewhere else to be eligible for the ticket. Some of their advisers were afraid it would make it look as if they were playing fast and loose with the Constitution.

Ford and his team were playing fast and loose with the constitution at the 1980 Republican National Convention, when they laid down their insane demand that for Ford to run as Vice President, he wanted assurances for what virtually amounted to a "Co-Presidency".

Thank goodness Reagan and his team realized before it was too late that Ford would have been an absolutely abysmal choice, and decided to go with a much better candidate, George Bush. 

You're certainly right about that. I was astonished that Reagan would even consider such a thing. When I heard that he had come to his senses and picked Bush instead, I said, "Damn... he picked the best candidate after all."
BTW, Reagan's performance when he came to the convention that night to announce his choice was a classic. He came to the podium, got that patented look on his face (a mixture of wry amusement and old-man befuddlement), said that he had no idea where the TV networks had come up with this crazy idea they kept reporting about Gerald Ford, and announced that he had chosen Bush.