What will be the August surprise?

[Tekken_Guy]

The first August of every presidential term has typically had something terrible happen that ends up being catastrophic for the administration and sends the president’s approval plummeting.

Biden in 2021 had the Afghanistan withdrawal.
Trump in 2017 had Charlottesville.
Obama in 2013 had the Syria chemical attack.
Bush in 2005 had Katrina.

Only one to avoid it AFAIK was Obama in 2009. Will Trump 47 continue the trend?

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Rename it to late summer and you can also squeeze 9/11 in there for 2001. The 2013 Syria chemical attack seems like a bit of a stretch though. Unlike the others it had no intersection with the United States and seems to be forgotten years later compared to the others.

[Vosem]

The first August of every presidential term has typically had something terrible happen that ends up being catastrophic for the administration and sends the president’s approval plummeting.

Biden in 2021 had the Afghanistan withdrawal.
Trump in 2017 had Charlottesville.
Obama in 2013 had the Syria chemical attack.
Bush in 2005 had Katrina.

Only one to avoid it AFAIK was Obama in 2009. Will Trump 47 continue the trend?

Nah, Obama 2009 had a self-inflicted one when the Obamacare bill was introduced in the House.

[The '90s' Last Champion]

The first August of every presidential term has typically had something terrible happen that ends up being catastrophic for the administration and sends the president’s approval plummeting.

Biden in 2021 had the Afghanistan withdrawal.
Trump in 2017 had Charlottesville.
Obama in 2013 had the Syria chemical attack.
Bush in 2005 had Katrina.

Only one to avoid it AFAIK was Obama in 2009. Will Trump 47 continue the trend?

Nah, Obama 2009 had a self-inflicted one when the Obamacare bill was introduced in the House.

It's still hard to believe how the GOP blew all the momentum they had by late 2009/early 2010 in 2012 and thinking about it just makes me sad. Though yeah, Rahm Emanuel was right and Obama should have dropped the bill.

[Banana Republican]

Since the definition of a recession is 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth, well...

August fits in just about right into the time when Trump will have had 2 quarters in office in which growth could be negative.


However, in reality they are going to try to rig the economic statistics to pretend that there isn't a recession. They are already firing panels of experts etc in preparation for manipulating economic statistics:

Experts worry about degradation of economic data after advisory committees disbanded

[Tekken_Guy]

Rename it to late summer and you can also squeeze 9/11 in there for 2001. The 2013 Syria chemical attack seems like a bit of a stretch though. Unlike the others it had no intersection with the United States and seems to be forgotten years later compared to the others.

9/11 was a positive for Bush, though.

If it was late summer I’d probably put the shutdown as my pick for 2013 over Syria but it doesn’t fit the strictly August definition I’m going with.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

It could be stimulus checks worth 5 K or Putin ending the Ukraine War, but if those two don't happen Hakeen Jeffries is gonna be the next Spk because as he said the Ds have Rs on the run on the Economy

I am not saying we will get those checks but I hope we do.

Users always think that I said we will get those checks. You always gotta watch out for Putin hatching some sort of deal with Trump'

[afleitch]

Martial Law. Then no more August surprises ever again as you  embrace Orange Juche

[Ferguson97]

It's still hard to believe how the GOP blew all the momentum they had by late 2009/early 2010 in 2012 and thinking about it just makes me sad.

I think your avatar is the wrong color…

[Steve from Lambeth]

Since the definition of a recession is 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth, well...

The definition of a recession is whatever the NBER genuinely believes a recession is. Why do you think Donald Trump already has one recession to his name?

[Bacon King]

Wildcard bet (horrifying mental image):

Trump is caught recieving a blowjob from an intern in the oval office. He lies about it under oath in the ensuing cover-up which proves unnecessary because no Republican is willing to go on-record as condemning the president or his behavior

[หมูเด้ง]

The first August of every presidential term has typically had something terrible happen that ends up being catastrophic for the administration and sends the president’s approval plummeting.

Biden in 2021 had the Afghanistan withdrawal.
Trump in 2017 had Charlottesville.
Obama in 2013 had the Syria chemical attack.
Bush in 2005 had Katrina.

Only one to avoid it AFAIK was Obama in 2009. Will Trump 47 continue the trend?

Nah, Obama 2009 had a self-inflicted one when the Obamacare bill was introduced in the House.

You mean those Townhall riots?

[Progressive Pessimist]

Given how chaotic these first two months have been, it will be impossible to guess.

[Rhode Islander First, American Second]

Given the rare things are going, launching an invasion of Canada through Greenland.

[Sir Mohamed]

August 19, 2025

TRUMP ANNOUNCES GREENLAND AS PART OF THE U.S.

A diplomatic showdown escalates as Trump declares Greenland part of the United States, stunning allies around the world.

In a move that sent shockwaves globally, U.S. President Donald Trump announced the formal annexation of Greenland into the United States. During a White House ceremony, he signed a presidential proclamation declaring the island as part of U.S. territory. "I’ve said it many times over the years, and I said it very strongly," Trump told reporters. "We need to take control of Greenland. It's a beautiful island, and its citizens want to become part of America. They all love Trump. We’ve seen tremendous support for Trump—many beautiful Trump signs all over the island. Just look at the stunning scenes with Trump flags and American flags."

Denmark, which holds formal sovereignty over Greenland, has withdrawn its ambassador from Washington, D.C. The European Union, along with several of its member states, Canada, and the UK, sent protest notes to the White House and the State Department. "The time for talks is over," Vice President Vance stated yesterday, claiming Denmark never negotiated in good faith regarding a potential sale. "They could have made a fortune," Trump told reporters. "I offered them a tremendous deal—probably the greatest deal ever. A lot of people said it was the greatest deal ever. Even though they’ve been ripping us off on trade for many years, they refused. Now we’ve acted. This is very bold action, I can tell you."

Recent developments and diplomatic tensions have escalated in recent weeks. Billionaire and Trump adviser Elon Musk openly referred to Denmark as an "s-hole country" and a "totalitarian state that censors political opposition," telling Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen to "eff herself" and asserting that "Trump will make Greenland great again."

In an initial reaction, Dmitry Peskov, spokesman for Russian President Vladimir V. Putin, expressed the Kremlin's support for the Trump administration's actions. "The era of the so-called West has finally come to an end," he remarked, "and we appreciate this new phase of 'partnership.' Last month, Trump formally recognized all Russian-annexed territories of Ukraine as part of the Russian Federation. This followed the suspension of all diplomatic relations with Ukraine, effectively no longer recognizing Kyiv as a sovereign nation."

[Wrong about 2024 Ghost]

A Trump-initiated war wouldn't be a surprise, although one that rapidly goes very badly (turns into a nuclear war or civil war) would be.

[Vosem]

It's still hard to believe how the GOP blew all the momentum they had by late 2009/early 2010 in 2012 and thinking about it just makes me sad.

I think your avatar is the wrong color…

Shouldn't his be the same color as mine?

[OSR stands with Israel]

It's still hard to believe how the GOP blew all the momentum they had by late 2009/early 2010 in 2012 and thinking about it just makes me sad.

I think your avatar is the wrong color…

Shouldn't his be the same color as mine?

I mean aren’t you only a D avatar so you can vote in D primaries in NY.

[SnowLabrador]

The invasion of Canada.

[Joe Biden 2028]

The first August of every presidential term has typically had something terrible happen that ends up being catastrophic for the administration and sends the president’s approval plummeting.

Biden in 2021 had the Afghanistan withdrawal.
Trump in 2017 had Charlottesville.
Obama in 2013 had the Syria chemical attack.
Bush in 2005 had Katrina.

Only one to avoid it AFAIK was Obama in 2009. Will Trump 47 continue the trend?

Nah, Obama 2009 had a self-inflicted one when the Obamacare bill was introduced in the House.

It's still hard to believe how the GOP blew all the momentum they had by late 2009/early 2010 in 2012 and thinking about it just makes me sad. Though yeah, Rahm Emanuel was right and Obama should have dropped the bill.

You are aganist the Affordable Care Act?

[You are responsible]

It would be interesting to see what effect an Katrina-like event would have on the structure of the second Trunp administration, since it would create the immediate need and demand for somewhat competent leadership.

Pence often seemed to fill that role in the first Trump administration as the adult in the room, but it's clear that Vance, or Musk for that matter, couldn't follow suit here.

So who would the Edith Wilson-like function as shadow president fall to?

[oldtimer]

Given the rare things are going, launching an invasion of Canada through Greenland.

During the Crimean War, the British thought that the Russians would invade Australia by the North Pole.

So in that spirit, why not Canada from Panama ?

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

It's still hard to believe how the GOP blew all the momentum they had by late 2009/early 2010 in 2012 and thinking about it just makes me sad.

I think your avatar is the wrong color…

The funny thing is, "Obamacare" is actually a creation of the type of conservadems he thinks the party should emulate. Obama's original plan went much further with a public option, but even with the overwhelming D majorities he couldn't get that passed, the Affordable Care Act basically ended up being what the median member of the House wanted, and at that time the median member of the House was a Blue Dog Democrat. Obamacare is effectively just a nationalized version of the Massachusetts plan that Mitt Romney signed into law (despite Romney campaigning on repealing it in 2012.)

Of course in 2009 S019 would be a staunch partisan Republican just as he would be today had Trump had a burger-induced heart attack in 2014.

[Vosem]

It's still hard to believe how the GOP blew all the momentum they had by late 2009/early 2010 in 2012 and thinking about it just makes me sad.

I think your avatar is the wrong color…

Shouldn't his be the same color as mine?

I mean aren’t you only a D avatar so you can vote in D primaries in NY.

Yes! But, I mean, my point is that people can express different things using their avatars. In no way is S019 having a Democratic avatar stranger or more ridiculous than me doing so.

[President Johnson]

August 19, 2025

TRUMP ANNOUNCES GREENLAND AS PART OF THE U.S.

A diplomatic showdown escalates as Trump declares Greenland part of the United States, stunning allies around the world.

snip

Why does this read like a serious possibility? I don't know whether it will be as early as August 2025, but I could really see this happening.