538? More like FiveThirtyGone.

[Just Some Guy]

https://twitter.com/quantusinsights/status/1897139155702059346?s=46


The site really became sh*t after Silver was either fired or quit.

[Joe Kakistocracy]

Makes sense.  There's no need for polling and election analysis any longer.

[Duke 🇺🇸]

Makes sense.  There's no need for polling and election analysis any longer.

Lol yup my thoughts. Why poll if you'll be sued by the controlling regime and why poll if you aren't having anymore legit elections.

[wbrocks67]

538 has the best system for polling averages, even if it's a little bit flawed. Still miles better than the RCP slop.

It's pretty incredulous that ABC bought the outlet, gutted it, and then now is just flat out cancelling it altogether.

[Just Some Guy]

Makes sense.  There's no need for polling and election analysis any longer.

Lol yup my thoughts. Why poll if you'll be sued by the controlling regime and why poll if you aren't having anymore legit elections.

I mean 538 wasn’t even a polling firm. It was one large polling aggregate on a myriad of political topics  and was genuinely seen as of now a waste of time and money. People’s opinions are not changing consistently let alone weekly as some polling firms like to show. And than 538 would act like those garbage polls were accurate and throw them onto a likely already garbage aggregate because they’d be including heavily partisan polls that leaned a certain way.

[kwabbit]

Even though Silver has gotten high on his own supply, ABC trying to cut costs and switching to Morris was a bad choice. The initial 2024 model was bizarre and nonsensical. Morris never offered a credible defense of it and was content to have the hopium model until the output became indefensible. The second version was boilerplate and the month the model was down took away a huge chunk of 538's revenue.

The polling aggregation was very useful but that's something that can be reproduced elsewhere. 538's claim to fame was that it had the best model and no one could honestly claim that anymore.

[Averroës]

End times for the "if there is hope, it must lie in the polls" mindset.

Popular opinion can move against the regime, but waiting for a semi-scientific measure of consensus reality to coordinate around is a mug's game.

[Just Some Guy]

Even though Silver has gotten high on his own supply, ABC trying to cut costs and switching to Morris was a bad choice. The initial 2024 model was bizarre and nonsensical. Morris never offered a credible defense of it and was content to have the hopium model until the output became indefensible. The second version was boilerplate and the month the model was down took away a huge chunk of 538's revenue.

The polling aggregation was very useful but that's something that can be reproduced elsewhere. 538's claim to fame was that it had the best model and no one could honestly claim that anymore.

At least Silver had some notches under his belt in regards to being “correct” during his predictions(Obama 2012, 2014 midterm,etc). I never really thought those were that hard to predict but whatever.

Morris on the other hand just reeked of smugness for really no reason.

[Steve from Lambeth]

It's pretty incredulous that ABC bought the outlet, gutted it, and then now is just flat out cancelling it altogether.

Disney has owned FiveThirtyEight for upwards of a decade at this point. I still miss their sports coverage, and have still not lived down when Maggie Koerth went from "wear a damn mask" to "look at this interesting PhD thesis about Taiwanese politics I found" over the course of the 2020 election liveblog.

[GAinDC]

so the second Trump's approval goes underwater on their tracker, ABC announces they're getting rid of the site?? If I was a conspiracy theorist, I'd say this sounds fishy

[Just Some Guy]

so the second Trump's approval goes underwater on their tracker, ABC announces they're getting rid of the site?? If I was a conspiracy theorist, I'd say this sounds fishy

Or it’s a genuinely terrible eyesore of website that’s overstayed it’s usefulness. I don’t think it’s worth the time and money for ABC to pay 15 employees to track a Presidents approval rating.

And most importantly,  they’re saving money.

[wbrocks67]

Looks like we may have a few potential buyers if it's up for sale-

https://twitter.com/stranter/status/1897324768728375435

[Joe Biden 2028]

I’m going to miss the graphics and data maps. We didn’t get any for 2024 and that was disappointing. Nor did the 2024 college football season have any probability models. I like clicking “If Tennessee beat Alabama what odds they have of making playoffs” 

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

Looks like we may have a few potential buyers if it's up for sale-

https://twitter.com/stranter/status/1897324768728375435

God I hope this goes through and someone buys it.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/VoteHubUS/status/1897351193695019252

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

538 has the best system for polling averages, even if it's a little bit flawed. Still miles better than the RCP slop.

It's pretty incredulous that ABC bought the outlet, gutted it, and then now is just flat out cancelling it altogether.

Only real reason I'll miss it. The decline from its peak (when Silver started it and ran it independently) is comparable to the decline in quality of The Simpsons. Still it sounds like it might get some replacements for that or a buyer who hopefully would treat it better than ABC.

[2016]

WOOO-HOOO!
First DeSantis shuts down Disney which forced Nate Silver to leave 538.

I loved the Governor for this.

Now ABC is forced to shut down 538 because of the Trump DOGE Govtm layoffs.

We don't need Galen, Morris and these Data Humps who got it all wrong time and time again and never admit their mistakes. Too much left wing propaganda was thrown into the Public by 538 during the 2022 & 2024 Elections.

edit: And given how successful Scott Tranter and DDHQ were in projecting States during E-Night 2024 I think 538 was bascially made redundant.

[Blue3]

Let's be honest... it was a relic of the Obama years. Big cracks showed in 2016 that were never completely fixed, and it kind of went off the rails in other areas too.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Let's be honest... it was a relic of the Obama years. Big cracks showed in 2016 that were never completely fixed, and it kind of went off the rails in other areas too.

Their 2018 midterm model was very good, IIRC.

[KakyoinMemeHouse]

So you're telling me Trump's approvals go underwater in the aggregate, and 538 is suddenly pulled very shortly afterwards?

This really doesn't smell right, and i don't think i'm crazy for suggesting such.

[GeorgiaModerate]

So you're telling me Trump's approvals go underwater in the aggregate, and 538 is suddenly pulled very shortly afterwards?

This really doesn't smell right, and i don't think i'm crazy for suggesting such.

Don't assume malice when there are more likely explanations -- to wit, the fact that this is just one part of much broader cuts at ABC and Disney.  See https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/business-news/disney-abc-news-layoffs-538-shut-down-1236155190/ for more details.

[GeorgiaModerate]

WOOO-HOOO!
First DeSantis shuts down Disney which forced Nate Silver to leave 538.

I loved the Governor for this.

Now ABC is forced to shut down 538 because of the Trump DOGE Govtm layoffs.

We don't need Galen, Morris and these Data Humps who got it all wrong time and time again and never admit their mistakes. Too much left wing propaganda was thrown into the Public by 538 during the 2022 & 2024 Elections.

edit: And given how successful Scott Tranter and DDHQ were in projecting States during E-Night 2024 I think 538 was bascially made redundant.

I would just like to point out that the fact this post is still here should amply demonstrate that stupid content is not, by itself, a violation of the Terms of Service.

[Joe Biden 2028]

Let's be honest... it was a relic of the Obama years. Big cracks showed in 2016 that were never completely fixed, and it kind of went off the rails in other areas too.

Let's be honest... it was a relic of the Obama years. Big cracks showed in 2016 that were never completely fixed, and it kind of went off the rails in other areas too.

Their 2018 midterm model was very good, IIRC.

Even the 2022 midterm model was very accurate. Didn't the final prediction show Republicans only getting a 4 seat majority when other news outlets were still predicting a red wave?

[emailking]

Makes sense.  There's no need for polling and election analysis any longer.

Lol yup my thoughts. Why poll if you'll be sued by the controlling regime and why poll if you aren't having anymore legit elections.

I mean 538 wasn’t even a polling firm. It was one large polling aggregate on a myriad of political topics  and was genuinely seen as of now a waste of time and money. People’s opinions are not changing consistently let alone weekly as some polling firms like to show. And than 538 would act like those garbage polls were accurate and throw them onto a likely already garbage aggregate because they’d be including heavily partisan polls that leaned a certain way.

How is it a waste of time?

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/lxeagle17/status/1897435080555209090