MN-Sen 2026: Smith retiring

[Don't blame me I voted for Harris]

Omar's chances of beating either Flanagan, Craig, or both in a primary are virtually nonexistent, so let's not even entertain the thought of how she performs in the general. I doubt she even runs in the end.

[freepcrusher]

phillips?

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/RuNoseP/status/1890099628059816165

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

Omar's chances of beating either Flanagan, Craig, or both in a primary are virtually nonexistent, so let's not even entertain the thought of how she performs in the general.

Either sure. The issue is what about both.

https://twitter.com/SeanTrende/status/1890105434624979417

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

One kind of off the wall name I've heard thrown around is Dean Phillips...I mean you can't really laugh at him now. He could say he's been redeemed with what he said about Biden. He may not be interested because now he's returned to his old life as a super rich guy and he just keep that forever but he really did earn an "I told you so."

He praised Elon recently.

Yeah that does disqualify him.

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

Unironically BRTD should run

"Does it blow your mind that no other Senators co-sponsored my bill to make Never Meant by American Football the national anthem?"

Why would I pick such an overrated song for that?

Even something like "American Hearts" by Piebald would be much better.

[Minnesota Mike]

My thoughts.

Dems-

- LG Peggy Flanigan is running which means Walz likely isn't.

- Angie Craig likely runs IMO and would be the front runner.

- Ilhan Omar is not an idiot, she knows she can't win statewide and would have the entire establishment against her. she is letting her name float out there there just as an ego thing,  a move many members a congress do.

- Dean Philips has already said he is not running.

- AG Keith Ellison (D) and SoS Steve Simon (D) are possible candidates. Simon would be a strong candidate, Ellison would not (better than Omar though).

- Al Franken running is a fantasy. He would be 75 in 2026.

Reps.

- Pete Stauber is looking for a promotion. It was assumed he was running for Governor but an open Senate seat may change his plans.

- Michelle Fischbach would be a strong candidate and has run statewide before.

Other possibilities.

– Tom Emmer. I don’t think he gives up his House Leadership position but has the name and has run statewide before.

– State Senator Karen Housley. Represents a swing district and has fun for Senate and LG before.

– State House Speaker Lisa Demuth.

– Former Viking and 2022 LG candidate Matt Birk.

– 2022 Governor Candidate Scott Jensen.

– Crazy man Royce White.

- TV personality Michele Tafoya.

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

- AG Keith Ellison (D) and SoS Steve Simon (D) are possible candidates. Simon would be a strong candidate, Ellison would not (better than Omar though).

I doubt Ellison is even interested, he was basically seeking any possible excuse to leave Congress in 2018, remember he ran for DNC Chair and promised to resign his House seat if he won it, even though that's not required or even customary. His actions and then running for AG later just screamed "I want to stay in politics but want to get out of DC ASAP."

[Minnesota Mike]

Why? At least maybe Walz could run.

Walz would probably be better off staying running for re-election as governor. Let Lt. Gov.Flanagan take the seat, and it gets her away from him considering the friction between their camps during and after the election.

Governor is a much better job than freshman senator in the minority party. If Walz runs for something in 2026 it's very likely governor.

[These birds not meant to fly alone]

- TV personality Michele Tafoya.

Completely forgot about her, but this would make complete sense. Not sure if she would win the primary, but she has been seemingly angling to run for something for a while.

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

Omar's chances of beating either Flanagan, Craig, or both in a primary are virtually nonexistent, so let's not even entertain the thought of how she performs in the general.

Either sure. The issue is what about both.

https://twitter.com/SeanTrende/status/1890105434624979417

Ignoring the fact that such a crowded scenario is very unlikely due to the DFL convention system, etc., let's do some math.

In 2024 Omar won the primary with 56% of the vote. A pretty good chunk of this was probably people willing to vote for her not worried about electability in the general election or just people who also disliked Don Samuels due to all his baggage, but even if we ignore that and assume she can get 56% in a primary for Senate, that district cast about 35% of the DFL primary votes in 2024. That equals 19.78% of the total vote...less than 20%. To get to even a third she would need to get another 13% from the rest of the state which is also equal to just under 20%, about 19.5%. This isn't even taking into account things like Flanagan sharing the same base, Craig likely to overrun in her district, etc. It's not exactly an impossible scenario but a very unlikely one that's the sort of thing that it's easy for people on Twitter to dream up but not occur in reality.

[Schumer can go f*** himself!]

Omar's chances of beating either Flanagan, Craig, or both in a primary are virtually nonexistent, so let's not even entertain the thought of how she performs in the general.

Either sure. The issue is what about both.

https://twitter.com/SeanTrende/status/1890105434624979417

Sean Trende is a far-right GOP hack with the credibility of a three month old moldy wheel of cheese

[Schumer can go f*** himself!]

My thoughts.

Dems-

- LG Peggy Flanigan is running which means Walz likely isn't.

- Angie Craig likely runs IMO and would be the front runner.

- Ilhan Omar is not an idiot, she knows she can't win statewide and would have the entire establishment against her. she is letting her name float out there there just as an ego thing,  a move many members a congress do.

- Dean Philips has already said he is not running.

- AG Keith Ellison (D) and SoS Steve Simon (D) are possible candidates. Simon would be a strong candidate, Ellison would not (better than Omar though).

- Al Franken running is a fantasy. He would be 75 in 2026.

Reps.

- Pete Stauber is looking for a promotion. It was assumed he was running for Governor but an open Senate seat may change his plans.

- Michelle Fischbach would be a strong candidate and has run statewide before.

Other possibilities.

– Tom Emmer. I don’t think he gives up his House Leadership position but has the name and has run statewide before.

– State Senator Karen Housley. Represents a swing district and has fun for Senate and LG before.

– State House Speaker Lisa Demuth.

– Former Viking and 2022 LG candidate Matt Birk.

– 2022 Governor Candidate Scott Jensen.

– Crazy man Royce White.

- TV personality Michele Tafoya.

Don’t Flanagan and Walz kinda hate each other though?

[Don't blame me I voted for Harris]

Omar's chances of beating either Flanagan, Craig, or both in a primary are virtually nonexistent, so let's not even entertain the thought of how she performs in the general.

Either sure. The issue is what about both.

https://twitter.com/SeanTrende/status/1890105434624979417

Even in a crowded contest, I doubt she gets >10% of the vote—seeing as she barely even wins her own primaries in the most progressive district in the state. The field would have to be a lot larger than just her, Walz, Flanagan, and Craig for her to be able to squeak by. Her getting the nomination is a GOP wet dream.

[Minnesota Mike]

Don’t Flanagan and Walz kinda hate each other though?

That's a story that is waaaaaay overblown. Flanagan and Walz have been close friends for a long time.  Flanagan despite being much younger was actually a political mentor of Walz when he made his mid life switch from high school teacher to politician.

[President Johnson]

Wow, after Peters another one.

Maybe Walz would be a formidable candidate?

[Existing in the context]

Omar's chances of beating either Flanagan, Craig, or both in a primary are virtually nonexistent, so let's not even entertain the thought of how she performs in the general.

Either sure. The issue is what about both.

https://twitter.com/SeanTrende/status/1890105434624979417

I don't even think she can get 10%. Omar being the senate nominee is a pipe dream for Republicans.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Flanagan will be favored in such scenario

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

https://twitter.com/RuNoseP/status/1890099628059816165

What's amazing about that? Alaska hasn't had an open Senate seat since statehood.

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

Worth noting the State Senate is up in 2026 unlike 2018 where Housey could run with no risk. Any R state legislative candidate would have to give up their seat.

It's possible if course one who was planning on retiring anyway could run it a former one who already retired and left their seat (like Jensen was) or who lost their seat previously (like that weird guy who ran for AG against Ellison in 2018 and lost because of how associated he was with socon extremists) but that is an angle that will be a factor in recruitment.

[Minnesota Mike]

https://www.minnpost.com/national/2025/02/tina-smiths-decision-to-retire-provokes-interest-from-walz-flanagan-and-other-dems-in-senate-run/

A source close to the governor said Walz “has not ruled out” a run for the Senate but is also considering a run for a third term as governor. The source said Walz would not run if Flanagan follows through with a formal bid for Smith’s seat.

[Big Zuck]

https://twitter.com/melvincarter3/status/1890115847567679656
https://twitter.com/alfranken/status/1890075330343522344
Doesn't look like either Carter or Franken are running

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Walz needs to stay put as Gov, Flanagan will win

[Nyvin]

I hope that Durbin, Markey, and Reed all announce retirement soon.

Maybe Hickenlooper too?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Glad Smith is retiring and not trying to cling on till she dies - especially because 2026 is probably the best cycle to do it without putting this seat in too serious of danger.

My initial inclination would for Craig, but it can be hard to judge potential candidates this far out.