MN-Sen 2026: Smith retiring

[Minnesota Mike]

Stauber would have been the Republicans top choice. I wonder if he runs for Governor instead.

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

I know Lt Gov is typically an invisible job but Flanagan having a big edge on Craig really reads like name ID advantage to me. Lt Gov against a congressperson is statewide versus local-ish, and Flanagan probably got more exposure than a typical Lt Gov last year because of Walz potentially leaving office.

Plenty of time for Craig to narrow that gap. Smart play for her would be very, very aggressive and outspoken against Trump/Musk and try to harness the national disaffection that a lot of people aren't seeing out of mainstream congressional D figures.

Flanagan isn't all that invisible, she's pretty common at campaign events and got a lot of media attention when Walz was the VP candidate for obvious reasons. It's more than in Minnesota it's a powerless job, the LG really doesn't do anything besides attend state functions with the Governor and wait for the Governor to resign/die. Flanagan has for the above reasons been more visible than most Minnesota LGs but prior they were pretty invisible, Tina Smith probably had a <20% name recognition rate before she was appointed to the Senate, although largely because she had only relatively recently become LG, Dayton's running mate in his first term was some long term State Senator who was also pretty old so she opted to retire after his first term and Dayton just picked his chief of staff in his first term who was Smith to be his running mate. I don't even remember the name of his first LG or for that matter any ones prior to that.

[JMT]

Stauber would have been the Republicans top choice. I wonder if he runs for Governor instead.

He ruled out a run for Governor already:

https://www.startribune.com/a-look-at-who-might-run-for-minnesota-governor-in-2026-and-whos-ruled-it-out/601220891

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

There's really no reason for any of the Minnesota Congressional Rs to run, it would mean giving up a safe seat for a very dubious prospect. It would only make sense if they were planning on retiring from the House anyway.

Of the four of them two have actually already sought statewide office. Emmer ran for Governor in 2010 and just narrowly lost, but now he has a safe seat and is in the House leadership, so he has no interest or reason to try again. And Fischbach is actually technically the last Republican to hold statewide office in Minnesota, she was LG for the period between Smith resigning for the Senate seat and Walz/Flanagan being elected. You might remember there was some controversy in her refusing to resign her Senate seat to take the LGship because as noted LG is an effectively powerless position (Senate President is also a mostly ceremonial position that doesn't run the State Senate, the actual power being held by the Majority Leader, but at least the holder is a State Senator and thus has power as a legislator being able to propose and vote on legislation, the LG does nothing), but she eventually agreed to once Tim Pawlenty asked her to be his running mate. However that ticket lost the R primary in 2018.

Stauber honestly does not strike me as a strong candidate, what makes him different than generic R? And the same with Finstad. The only strength I can see from either is they don't have a habit of making insane out there statements ala Michele Bachmann but that's more of a lack of a weakness than actual strength.

[GALeftist]

Craig is way too moderate for this moment in history.

[Minnesota Mike]

Craig is way too moderate for this moment in history.

It's not like she is Joe Manchin or something. Craig would be a very solid Democratic Senator and would have my support over most other potential candidates.

Minnesota has been a reliable light blue state but don't think for a second it's overly progressive statewide. Picking a too far left candidate is the surest way for Democrats to lose a race they should win.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Craig is way too moderate for this moment in history.

It's not like she is Joe Manchin or something. Craig would be a very solid Democratic Senator and would have my support over most other potential candidates.

Minnesota has been a reliable light blue state but don't think for a second it's overly progressive statewide. Picking a too far left candidate is the surest way for Democrats to lose a race they should win.

It's also about holding the seat in the long run. Unless there's a disaster, I think nearly any possible Democrat would be fine this cycle regardless of their personal ideology, but in tougher years having someone like Craig there, at least theoretically, seems to be one less potential problem.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

People act like you need to be a moderate hero to win in a swing state. Wisconsin happily re-elects Ron Johnson and Tammy Baldwin.

[GALeftist]

I'm not saying nominate Omar or something. I understand that Minnesota is a light blue state. That said, this isn't Arizona or even Michigan we're talking about here, and Craig is one of the most conservative members of the caucus. I think she's fine for her seat, but in the Senate it seems obvious to me that someone like Flanagan is better for this moment in history where we need fighters.

[TML]

I'm not saying nominate Omar or something. I understand that Minnesota is a light blue state. That said, this isn't Arizona or even Michigan we're talking about here, and Craig is one of the most conservative members of the caucus. I think she's fine for her seat, but in the Senate it seems obvious to me that someone like Flanagan is better for this moment in history where we need fighters.

So in your opinion, do you think Craig would be like a Sinema clone on the issue of filibuster reform?

[SInNYC]

I would love to see the 'Wellstone seat' occupied by someone worthy of him, like Flanagan.

I also disagree with the upthread comments about MN not being that progressive. Its true that its light blue but thats because of the demographic mix, not a lack of progressivism. MN has one of the few rural D areas left in the country, Mpls ranks among the most left of city governments, smaller cities like Rochester and especially Duluth are far more D than other small cities, and the state has several third parties on the left. True, it has more Jesusland parts than some (but not all) other blue states.

[Cowboys for Christ]

Let's not fool ourselves: Peggy Flanagan is nothing more than a placeholder who’s spent her entire career in the background. The role of Minnesota Lieutenant Governor is a glorified do-nothing job, and Flanagan has done absolutely nothing to prove she can handle the big leagues. She’s spent more time basking in the warm glow of Governor Walz’s shadow than actually leading or achieving anything substantial. But hey, she’s got name recognition, right? That’s literally it. We’re supposed to pretend that qualifies her for the Senate? Hard pass.

Now, let’s talk about Angie Craig. She represents a competitive seat, which makes her a real politician, not someone who’s coasting on borrowed time. Craig’s actually been in the trenches, getting things done, and fighting back against the big dogs like Trump, Musk and Johnson. No cans-of-corn. She’s the one who’s pushing real policy, not just spewing empty rhetoric from the safety of a powerless office. Peggy Flanagan in the Senate? Please. Craig is the bold, experienced leader Minnesota needs; not another politician who’s spent too many years playing it safe.

[Minnesota Mike]

I'm not saying nominate Omar or something. I understand that Minnesota is a light blue state. That said, this isn't Arizona or even Michigan we're talking about here, and Craig is one of the most conservative members of the caucus. I think she's fine for her seat, but in the Senate it seems obvious to me that someone like Flanagan is better for this moment in history where we need fighters.

TBF The main reason I would support Craig over Flannagan is Craig is closer to my political views than Flannigan (my avatar is green for a reason) but I also believe she would be a much stronger candidate. Not saying Flannigan can't win, she can, but the best performing statewide Democrats in MN are moderates. Klobuchar, Walz (he has moved left but was considered a moderate when elected), and SOS Steve Simon are all moderates. On the other hand AG Keith Ellison has won twice but has severely underperformed the top of the ticket.

[Oryxslayer]

I see everyone's already preparing to split many hairs over limited differences between two Democratic candidates. Reminds me of Kennedy vs Markey. In that race the only differences that actually mattered were age and ambition, here it's state political experience versus national. But people hyped up that one as a great ideological struggle, as it seems people are preparing here, and years later we can say that the crusaders for both sides were let down in MA - just as they probably will here.

Any non-Ellison/Omar candidate should be fine

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

I see everyone's already preparing to split many hairs over limited differences between two Democratic candidates. Reminds me of Kennedy vs Markey. In that race the only differences that actually mattered were age and ambition, here it's state political experience versus national. But people hyped up that one as a great ideological struggle, as it seems people are preparing here, and ears later we can say that the crusaders for both sides were let down in MA - just as they probably will here.

Any non-Ellison/Omar candidate should be fine

I think it's telling that there's no real discussion of who the GOP candidate will be. Just Congress members declining.

I'm betting it'll be some random state legislator/former legislator who also turn out to be a crank (like Scott Jensen) or some random completely crazy (like Royce White.) The latter isn't as likely because White mostly just ended up being the nominee as no one serious wanted to run against Klobuchar, but the GOP's "serious" bench isn't exactly impressive either.

[Minnesota Mike]

Another notable Dem is said the be considering the race.

https://www.thedailyagenda.com/p/morning-take-lopez-franzen-leaving

FIRST: morning take has confirmed that U of MN’s Melisa López Franzen will be leaving her position as Executive Director of Government Relations to explore a run for the US Senate. López Franzen was under consideration for appointment for the US Senate when Gov. Mark Dayton appointed Tina Smith

López Franzen was considered a rising DFL star but retired from the state senate after being thrown in the same district as another DFL senator in redistricting. Lives in Edina and is only 44 despite being around for around politics for awhile.

[Tekken_Guy]

Another notable Dem is said the be considering the race.

https://www.thedailyagenda.com/p/morning-take-lopez-franzen-leaving

FIRST: morning take has confirmed that U of MN’s Melisa López Franzen will be leaving her position as Executive Director of Government Relations to explore a run for the US Senate. López Franzen was under consideration for appointment for the US Senate when Gov. Mark Dayton appointed Tina Smith

López Franzen was considered a rising DFL star but retired from the state senate after being thrown in the same district as another DFL senator in redistricting. Lives in Edina and is only 44 despite being around for around politics for awhile.

Her name was floated for MN-03 back when Phillips first floated a primary bid against Biden.

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

Another notable Dem is said the be considering the race.

https://www.thedailyagenda.com/p/morning-take-lopez-franzen-leaving

FIRST: morning take has confirmed that U of MN’s Melisa López Franzen will be leaving her position as Executive Director of Government Relations to explore a run for the US Senate. López Franzen was under consideration for appointment for the US Senate when Gov. Mark Dayton appointed Tina Smith

López Franzen was considered a rising DFL star but retired from the state senate after being thrown in the same district as another DFL senator in redistricting. Lives in Edina and is only 44 despite being around for around politics for awhile.

Franzen for the record is the State Senator I mentioned earlier in the anecdote about Julie Blaha who was carrying a half empty can of White Claw with her meaning she was almost certainly drinking in the car (as a passenger), although of course I really doubt voters will care about that.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Another notable Dem is said the be considering the race.

https://www.thedailyagenda.com/p/morning-take-lopez-franzen-leaving

FIRST: morning take has confirmed that U of MN’s Melisa López Franzen will be leaving her position as Executive Director of Government Relations to explore a run for the US Senate. López Franzen was under consideration for appointment for the US Senate when Gov. Mark Dayton appointed Tina Smith

López Franzen was considered a rising DFL star but retired from the state senate after being thrown in the same district as another DFL senator in redistricting. Lives in Edina and is only 44 despite being around for around politics for awhile.

It's too late Flanagan is in the Driver's seat and if Pete Buttigieg doesn't get in McMorrow will win

[Anti-Penguin Tariff Voter]

My thoughts.

- Ilhan Omar is not an idiot, she knows she can't win statewide and would have the entire establishment against her. she is letting her name float out there there just as an ego thing,  a move many members a congress do.

- AG Keith Ellison (D) and SoS Steve Simon (D) are possible candidates. Simon would be a strong candidate, Ellison would not (better than Omar though).

It’s wild that in America being an outspoken leftist is more toxic than a history of abuse just likeVA-Gub-2021. Granted Omar isn’t half as toxic or officiating as Carter was

[Anti-Penguin Tariff Voter]

What does the bench to succeed Craig in MN-02 if she runs even look like?

There's a bunch of state legislators who'd be interested. One to keep an eye on is Matt Little. He's not a current state legislator but has an impressive career, he was elected mayor of Lakeville at age 27 and developed quite a bit of popularity due to him taking advantage of Lakeville's brisk growth to expand public services and development without raising property taxes. This allowed him to get elected to the State Senate in a rather Republican district (Lakeville is one of those sprawling outer suburban cities and it's trended left under Trump but still narrowly voted for him all three times. He got elected as mayor because it's a nonpartisan office.) He lost in 2020 after one term and returned to his private law practice but ran for Dakota County Attorney in 2022 as a progressive reformist and made the runoff against a more traditional candidate who talked about her work with law enforcement (nonpartisan office but this showed a clear left/right split) and narrowly lost. He just turned 40 last year despite all that achieved. He strikes me as someone who would be interested in an opportunity unless he's decided to retire from elected office altogether.

Matt Little was the reason I got a tik tok, damn him (but I do like him)

[Nhoj]

The reddit local subs seemed to not be super sold on Flanagan, and for that crowd its usually about not being progressive enough in their eyes.[Wi subs think Pocan should run for Gov if Evers retires for instance] So I assume some sort of True Progressive will run too.

[Sir Mohamed]

Walz is officially OUT.

https://twitter.com/toreyvanoot/status/1894734619452264878

[These birds not meant to fly alone]

Doesn't surprise me. I wouldn't expect he and Flanagan to run in the same primary lol.

[Atlas Force]

Yeah he can just run for re-election if he wants to stay active in office