MN-Sen 2026: Smith retiring

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

I hope that Durbin, Markey, and Reed all announce retirement soon.

Maybe Hickenlooper too?

Shaheen might retire

[Canis]

My thoughts.

Dems-

- LG Peggy Flanigan is running which means Walz likely isn't.

- Angie Craig likely runs IMO and would be the front runner.

- Ilhan Omar is not an idiot, she knows she can't win statewide and would have the entire establishment against her. she is letting her name float out there there just as an ego thing,  a move many members a congress do.

- Dean Philips has already said he is not running.

- AG Keith Ellison (D) and SoS Steve Simon (D) are possible candidates. Simon would be a strong candidate, Ellison would not (better than Omar though).

- Al Franken running is a fantasy. He would be 75 in 2026.

Reps.

- Pete Stauber is looking for a promotion. It was assumed he was running for Governor but an open Senate seat may change his plans.

- Michelle Fischbach would be a strong candidate and has run statewide before.

Other possibilities.

– Tom Emmer. I don’t think he gives up his House Leadership position but has the name and has run statewide before.

– State Senator Karen Housley. Represents a swing district and has fun for Senate and LG before.

– State House Speaker Lisa Demuth.

– Former Viking and 2022 LG candidate Matt Birk.

– 2022 Governor Candidate Scott Jensen.

– Crazy man Royce White.

- TV personality Michele Tafoya.

Don’t Flanagan and Walz kinda hate each other though?

Walz is already in for reelection and has already been fundraising I really doubt he switches over.
Also Philips declined to run in November 2024 before Smith announced her retirement, I actually think there’s a decent chance he runs for this, but atm I think Craig and Flanagan are the obvious front runners.

[Minnesota Mike]

Walz is already in for reelection and has already been fundraising I really doubt he switches over.
Also Philips declined to run in November 2024 before Smith announced her retirement, I actually think there’s a decent chance he runs for this, but atm I think Craig and Flanagan are the obvious front runners.

Philips left himself a tiny bit of wiggle room today saying he does not intend to run but it really does not sound as if he is interested.

As for the frontrunners I would put SOS Steve Simon up there with Craig and Flannigan. Unlike the other two Simon has won 3 times by himself statewide with the best margins this side of Amy Klobuchar.

[Progressive Pessimist]

As long as it isn't Omar this should be an easy hold.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Flanagan is the likely frontrunner

[DaleCooper]

Much like Buttigieg in Michigan, Dems need to do everything they can to stop Omar in Minnesota if she runs. I do think she is much less likely to win than Buttigieg, though, so it's not as concerning.

[CentristRepublican]

Also wonder how many people who’ll nudge Ilhan into running for the Senate are more interested in getting her out of the House

I have zero idea how this makes logical sense. In a House of 435 ppl, a few gadflies are much more harmless than in the Senate.

[Roll Roons]

Also wonder how many people who’ll nudge Ilhan into running for the Senate are more interested in getting her out of the House

I have zero idea how this makes logical sense. In a House of 435 ppl, a few gadflies are much more harmless than in the Senate.

Because they know she likely wouldn't win a Senate race.

[CentristRepublican]

Omar's chances of beating either Flanagan, Craig, or both in a primary are virtually nonexistent, so let's not even entertain the thought of how she performs in the general.

Either sure. The issue is what about both.

https://twitter.com/SeanTrende/status/1890105434624979417

If Flanagan is running Walz most definitely is not. He's either going for a third term as governor or retiring altogether. And expecting some kind of perfect split between Flanagan and Craig is unrealistic (not to mention I don't think Omar would even manage a third of the vote, tbh).

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

Walz is already in for reelection and has already been fundraising I really doubt he switches over.
Also Philips declined to run in November 2024 before Smith announced her retirement, I actually think there’s a decent chance he runs for this, but atm I think Craig and Flanagan are the obvious front runners.

Philips left himself a tiny bit of wiggle room today saying he does not intend to run but it really does not sound as if he is interested.

As for the frontrunners I would put SOS Steve Simon up there with Craig and Flannigan. Unlike the other two Simon has won 3 times by himself statewide with the best margins this side of Amy Klobuchar.

Simon kind of strikes me as wanting to hold the SoS position for the rest of his career, but we'll see.

[Devils30]

Much like Buttigieg in Michigan, Dems need to do everything they can to stop Omar in Minnesota if she runs. I do think she is much less likely to win than Buttigieg, though, so it's not as concerning.

She would be lucky to clear 42% in a general election. But it would be amusing to watch her lose St. Louis County and lose places like Carlton by 27. She is just a terrible person who should not be representing any constituency in the United States of America.

[Existing in the context]

Much like Buttigieg in Michigan, Dems need to do everything they can to stop Omar in Minnesota if she runs. I do think she is much less likely to win than Buttigieg, though, so it's not as concerning.

She would be lucky to clear 42% in a general election. But it would be amusing to watch her lose St. Louis County and lose places like Carlton by 27. She is just a terrible person who should not be representing any constituency in the United States of America.

Which is why she not a serious contender.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Flanagan is gonna win anyways primary.

[Atlas Force]

What does the bench to succeed Craig in MN-02 if she runs even look like?

[These birds not meant to fly alone]

Let's put the kibosh on this idea that Omar would even get out of a primary. I doubt she even runs at all, but if she has to fight to survive primaries within her own congressional district cycle after cycle, she stands no chance of winning a statewide primary.

[KakyoinMemeHouse]

The people who think Omar could seriously get nominated are either doomers or clueless GOP hacks.

[Duke of York]

The people who think Omar could seriously get nominated are either doomers or clueless GOP hacks.

Agreed. Omar has no chance of winning a statewide primary and I also don't see Walz running. He either runs for a third term or retires from politics.

[Oryxslayer]

The people who think Omar could seriously get nominated are either doomers or clueless GOP hacks.

Agree, but understand there is a wider pool of people who know this and still want her to run - and therefore retire by other methods.

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

What does the bench to succeed Craig in MN-02 if she runs even look like?

There's a bunch of state legislators who'd be interested. One to keep an eye on is Matt Little. He's not a current state legislator but has an impressive career, he was elected mayor of Lakeville at age 27 and developed quite a bit of popularity due to him taking advantage of Lakeville's brisk growth to expand public services and development without raising property taxes. This allowed him to get elected to the State Senate in a rather Republican district (Lakeville is one of those sprawling outer suburban cities and it's trended left under Trump but still narrowly voted for him all three times. He got elected as mayor because it's a nonpartisan office.) He lost in 2020 after one term and returned to his private law practice but ran for Dakota County Attorney in 2022 as a progressive reformist and made the runoff against a more traditional candidate who talked about her work with law enforcement (nonpartisan office but this showed a clear left/right split) and narrowly lost. He just turned 40 last year despite all that achieved. He strikes me as someone who would be interested in an opportunity unless he's decided to retire from elected office altogether.

[Tekken_Guy]

What does the bench to succeed Craig in MN-02 if she runs even look like?

Lindsey Port and Erin Quade seem like the most likely candidates.

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

What does the bench to succeed Craig in MN-02 if she runs even look like?

Lindsey Port and Erin Quade seem like the most likely candidates.

Quade would mean a lesbian replacing a lesbian in Congress, which I don't think has ever happened.

[Steve from Lambeth]

https://x.com/DrewSav/status/1890076630690984146: "MN-2 was Harris +6 so Dems won't need to worry about holding her seat if she runs"

There was a 538 article - not that I can find it - which pointed out that the House GOP's campaign focus on several key seats meant defunding races in MN-2 (D+5.3 → D+13.5), MI-3 (D+12.9 → D+9.9), and IL-13 (D+13.2 → D+14.6). All shifts are 2022 vs 2024. Last year was a disappointment for Teirab, but I do think MN-2 is close enough and suburban enough to justify the GOP having a second look at it.

(For the record: I do think the Republicans should go for MI-3 again; it got closer even after we stopped caring about it and I don't think Scholten is sticky in the same way McDonald Rivet has proven herself to be. IL-13 does sting a bit, but I think 6, 14 and maybe 11 are easier lifts.)

[Compuzled_One]

Honestly, Smith barely would've had an incumbency boost, and Minnesota is still a blue state. I think the Dems should take this one so long as they don't sleep at the wheel.

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

https://x.com/DrewSav/status/1890076630690984146: "MN-2 was Harris +6 so Dems won't need to worry about holding her seat if she runs"

There was a 538 article - not that I can find it - which pointed out that the House GOP's campaign focus on several key seats meant defunding races in MN-2 (D+5.3 → D+13.5), MI-3 (D+12.9 → D+9.9), and IL-13 (D+13.2 → D+14.6). All shifts are 2022 vs 2024. Last year was a disappointment for Teirab, but I do think MN-2 is close enough and suburban enough to justify the GOP having a second look at it.

(For the record: I do think the Republicans should go for MI-3 again; it got closer even after we stopped caring about it and I don't think Scholten is sticky in the same way McDonald Rivet has proven herself to be. IL-13 does sting a bit, but I think 6, 14 and maybe 11 are easier lifts.)

It's kind of a textbook Fools Gold type seat, but it did technically vote for two statewide R candidates in 2022:

State Auditor   4103 precincts in contest. 257 of 257 precincts reported in District.
Party   Candidate   Totals   Percent   Graph
Grassroots - Legalize Cannabis   Will Finn   4,917   1.54%   
Legal Marijuana Now   Tim Davis   11,017   3.44%   
Republican   Ryan Wilson   152,554   47.67%   
Democratic-Farmer-Labor   Julie Blaha   151,340   47.29%   
Write-In   WRITE-IN   225   0.07%   

Attorney General   4103 precincts in contest. 257 of 257 precincts reported in District.
Party   Candidate   Totals   Percent   Graph
Republican   Jim Schultz   162,236   50.19%   
Democratic-Farmer-Labor   Keith Ellison   160,702   49.71%   
Write-In   WRITE-IN   312   0.10%   

But one was a woman who for all intents and purposes did not run a campaign at all aside from speaking at other DFL candidates' events and attending public events with other DFL office holders that probably involved drinking and driving*, and one was Keith Ellison, and they won by...0.38 and 0.48 points respectively. And this is a Trump midterm. It would take a serious fumble by the DFL here.

*She was pulled over by a state trooper driving back from the Renaissance Fair with a DFL State Senator, and the trooper found a help empty can of White Claw in the front of the car. Blaha denied drinking it or any alcohol and blew a 0.00, the State Senator claimed it was hers but denied drinking it in the car, she claimed that she drink part of it at the fair, and then decided to take the can home to recycle it instead of just putting it in the many recycling bins present at the fair, and of course was carrying it while still half full instead of emptying it out...pretty big stretch of a story. It's illegal for even passengers to consume alcohol in a moving vehicle in Minnesota or even carry opened bottles of alcoholic beverages outside of the trunk. But in the end no charges were filed and while it wasn't a good look, I doubt most people cared, that law isn't strictly enforced anyway as long as it isn't the driver who is drinking.

[MarkD]

It seems as if she just won her first election a couple of weeks ago.